07L: Hurricane Gustav

[Marc Austin]

I notice the latest path from NHC has moved slightly to the East. Perhaps the near stalling of the system over Haiti has delayed the original path enough to give the trough time to pull it north earlier, possibly threatening AL/FL coasts?

 

[MClarkson]

There is *some* skill in long range intensity forecasts. Both the GFS and EURO establish a solid upper level anti-cyclone over the GOM in days 5/6. That would be very favorable for intensification. Now it just needs to get away from the land.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Interesting to note that models are beginning to diverge on routing AL-95 in the Atlantic towards Florida about a day or two behind Gustav. I won't even mention the disaster possibilities if that did occur. I don't recall a dual strike from separate cyclones so close together (if it unlikely comes to be). ? Jim - Richard?

Warren

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Gustav does have my attention - I am planning to fly to Houston on Saturday before moving toward ether Baton Rouge or Gulfport Sat Night - I will refine my target from there and could end up 100's of miles away!

One aspect that we need to watch is the posiblity that Gustav will stall South of New Orleans for 36 hours - this would have a drastic effect on both intensity and timingof landfall. right now I am gaoing for a Monday / Tuesday landfall.

 

[jladue]

Gustav appears to be further south than the NHC position according to what I see on the satellite imagery. The radar at Gran Piedra, Cuba also shows the same thing with echoes swirling around a further south center. There might be implications for a further south and west track too over the next day or so. That's good for further intensification. However this storm has really lost its core. Can it possibly recover as quickly as advertised? Sometimes the negative impacts of land interaction can last well after the storm has departed the coast. Even just 15 kts of vertical shear can have an impact with a ripped up system like this. I'll be looking for a big convective explosion near the center before raising my forecast intensity of this storm.

 

[Jason Young]

If this storm hit's in the same area as Katrina , I can't see how Ms. can handle another rebiuld. I spent 4 month's in Biloxi Ms. after Katrina and it was a nightmare

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Jason - the big question right now is weather or not gustav can even survive the next 24 hrs? - the interection with land has taken its toll - in fact almost all the convection has gone now from the LLC !

 

[Warren Faidley]

I have to agree with Stuart as it looks like Gustav is down and out. It looks like that large area of thunderstorms to the southwest has ingested the remains.

Warren

 

[Dan Robinson]

Jason - the big question right now is weather or not gustav can even survive the next 24 hrs? - the interection with land has taken its toll - in fact almost all the convection has gone now from the LLC !

Not to mention the burst of convection well to the west-southwest of where the old LLC was/is. It would be interesting if this area becomes dominant and results in the whole storm (not just the LLC) shifting a few hundred miles west. Does it get a new name or is it the same storm?

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I have to agree with Stuart as it looks like Gustav is down and out. It looks like that large area of thunderstorms to the southwest has ingested the remains.

Warren

So quick to write off these storms LOL!!

Yall definitely know TONS more than I do about the subject, so I probably shouldn't argue with you, but I'm not writing Gustav off yet. Sat images are showing a tiny little convective blob over the center, and while it could die away, it could also be what this storm needs to get going. Never underestimate the power of the northern Caribbean...

 

[ABlaser]

I have to agree with Stuart as it looks like Gustav is down and out. It looks like that large area of thunderstorms to the southwest has ingested the remains.

Warren

gustav took quite a beating, which is common with smaller circulations. but as long as there is still a surface closed circulation, don't count it out.

 

[MatthewCarman]

So quick to write off these storms LOL!!

Yall definitely know TONS more than I do about the subject, so I probably shouldn't argue with you, but I'm not writing Gustav off yet. Sat images are showing a tiny little convective blob over the center, and while it could die away, it could also be what this storm needs to get going. Never underestimate the power of the northern Caribbean...

To many people are so quick to overkill these storms and make them sound like so much more than what they realy are and make a thread last over 3 pages even for a tropical storm that does not deserve that much discusion. (I am not just talking about this year) It seems like every single tropical storm will become a hurricane according to weather sites and in reality alot of them will not. Some weather sites have like 10 pages on just invests,depressions and tropical storms and there is always people saying it could easily or will become a hurricane. It get's old after awhile. Not every single tropical storm will become a hurricane. Sometimes we need people like Warren and Stuart to keep it real and bring us back to reality.

Having said that, this is good news for the US as a hit anywhere in the GOM or FL from a Cat 2-3 Hurricane would be devestating. The most likely areas to get hit would have been LA or MS and that is the last place that needs another Hurricane. Be thankfull that Gustav is dying and continue you're prayers that it is gone for good.

Ps. I am sorry if people who are excited to intercept a Hurricane get mad at me for this post. My intentions were not to offend anyone.

 

[MClarkson]

Northerly shear is clearly visible on WV sat and the GFS/NAM keep it around for a few days. Stalling over/near land for so long sure didnt help, but still think Gustav can fight it off. The last few sat scans show some deeper convection back near the center, and it is now over very warm water. Outflow to other sectors is still good.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

I would caution that once Gustav moves NW/W over the next couples of days.
The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential between Jamaica and Cuba into the Yucatan Peninsula contains some of the deepest ocean heat content
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008239god26.png

TCHP values in excess of 80 kJ/cm^2 have been found to promote rapid intensification of hurricanes.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html


The models will change in the next five days with landfall possibilities from Texas - Florida. The most likely area at this time based on 18Z run "TREND" is for the Storm to move in the GOM over the weekend. Then move toward the LA/MS area early next week.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Gustav has already killed 23 people. If it does intensify and make landfall somewhere in the US that deathtoll will rise. Nothing we can do about that but sad to see it happen.

TWC expects the weakening trend of Gustav to stop soon so mabey it will survive and stengthen into a Hurricane after all.