07L: Hurricane Gustav

[Warren Faidley]

Ominous forecast track:

Looking at the average (and narrow) path of the 1200 UTC model runs, just updated, the track of Gustav is getting very close to a "possible" landfall near New Orleans -- subject of course, to major deviations. It will be interesting (but unfortunate and sad) to see when the "panic" will set-in. I fear that unless Gustav makes a hard left turn, or is completely destroyed by a run over Cuba, this will be a serious situation in 3-4 days no matter where Gustav ends up in the Gulf.

Warren

 

[Marc Austin]

Ominous forecast track:

Looking at the average (and narrow) path of the 1200 UTC model runs, just updated, the track of Gustav is getting very close to a "possible" landfall near New Orleans -- subject of course, to major deviations. It will be interesting (but unfortunate and sad) to see when the "panic" will set-in. I fear that unless Gustav makes a hard left turn, or is completely destroyed by a run over Cuba, this will be a serious situation in 3-4 days no matter where Gustav ends up in the Gulf.

Warren

Agreed Warren,

Once this thing gets into the gulf, which seems almost certain, there won't be much to keep it from strengthening quite quickly. Oil prices will certainly go up and the high heat content of the SE and Central Gulf will fuel the storm with little shear forecast. The only path that seems to minimize the threat is a WNW track over cuba, but even then it will most likely explode again once it moves over open water. In Jeff Masters' blog on Wunderground, he discusses that the ECMWF is showing possibly 4 named storms at once strung out across the Atlantic basin. This is setting up to be a busy couple of weeks.

 

[Joshua T. Clark]

Bad Mojo

Fellas,

This is not a good situation. I am here ground zero in Gulfport, MS. I do not like what I am seeing here. This place can not I repeat can not suffer another blow from a Katrina like storm. The latest guidance package at 1800Z shows a tight packing of with a more WNW track.

I am including in this post the lastest guidance graphic from Colorado State.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

You can see the center of circulation now from the Cuban, Gran Piedra radar.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

 

[MatthewCarman]

Some models show it tracking over FL. Does anyone here think that is possible or do you all think LA has a better shot at seeing Gustav? Time to pray this does not hit New Orleans.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Some models show it tracking over FL. Does anyone here think that is possible or do you all think LA has a better shot at seeing Gustav? Time to pray this does not hit New Orleans.

How about Galveston/Houston?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hur_nested/storm_1/18/images/hur_msl_126l.gif

 

[B Ozanne]

Some models show it tracking over FL. Does anyone here think that is possible or do you all think LA has a better shot at seeing Gustav? Time to pray this does not hit New Orleans.

I like to watch how the guidance and NHC forecasts are trending, opposed to looking at the exact track. The past two days everything has been trending to the west. Unless everything starts trending back to the east I wouldn't pay too much attention to the east side of the cone.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Looks like Haiti really knocked the stuffing out of Gustav on IR. Almost appears like the core of lower level circulation was kicked out to the east and positioned for another drag over Haiti. Will be very interesting to see how all this pans out.

Warren

 

[Clarence Bennett]

It also appears to have become a bit elongated. I wrote this one off as dead a week ago and it survived. Curious to see if the forecast remains the same. Upper level conditions appear to have changed a bit...thoughts?

Clarence

 

[Ryan Wichman]

It does look like Haiti took the edge off of the storm for the short-term. If the current tracks are accurate though, it won't matter too much once it gets into the warm-primed waters of the gulf. I would have to agree with you B Ozanne, the track has been shifting progressively farthur to the west. I think another texas landfall or possibly even Mexico landfall is a strong possibility.

 

[B Ozanne]

The 11am NHC official forecast track has to be inducing some panic about now.

Probably falling on many deaf ears because its only a tropical storm right now and the public likes to look at the current strength, not the forecasted strength.

 

[Warren Faidley]

It appears the circulation is re-establishing on the western end of Haiti. The big issue now will be timing. If Gustav continues at the projected speed and path, it would likely be (if the forecast proves correct) a major hurricane hitting in daylight near NO. If it slows down too much, then it's a late evening, nighttime landfall. It has been my impression over the years that the projected landfall time is off by an average of 6 hrs, at this point, unless a wild card, kicker system comes into play, so we might get another daytime monster. I should point out that daylight is not just for shooting, but daytime landfalls make it a lot easier for evacuations, last minute preparations, spotting, recovery and rescues. It will be interesting to see if the media will break away from the Democratic Convention to start covering this potentially dangerous storm. I am sure at some point panic will set in. For those flying out, reserve airline flights and cars now, as with the holiday weekend, mixed with possible gasoline panic and one way evacuation highways -- it's going to be a wild ride.

Warren

 

[rdale]

The 11am NHC official forecast track has to be inducing some panic about now.

I would hope people aren't in a panic over this... That does no good.

Have them read this:

THERE IS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...SKILL IN
INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES. INDEED...IF ONE
LOOKS AT THE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS
PACKAGE...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS NEARLY AN EQUAL CHANCE THAT
GUSTAV WILL BE A CATEGORY 1...CATEGORY 2...OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

 

[Marc Austin]

I still can't help but notice that a couple of models are bringing the system back to the East over the western Florida panhandle. If this thing hits NO, I'm not sure how they will recover. Most of outer New Orleans is still desolate. We must hope for the best.

 

[Jay McCoy]

If this thing hits NO, I'm not sure how they will recover. Most of outer New Orleans is still desolate. We must hope for the best.

At least they wont have near as many to evacuate this time and most will take heed. I dont think the levy system has been fully repaired so even a cat 2 could prove disasterous.

As for them breaking away from the DEM convetion to cover this i doubt it since the convention ends thursday night and it isnt projected to make land fall until Monday. More likely it will preempt the coverage of the republican convetion next week in the twin cities.

Could this be a sign for NO to just give up rebuilding and move the damn city north ???