07L: Hurricane Gustav

[Stuart Robinson]

Welcome to Tropical Storm Gustav !!

A RECON flight has just found flight level winds of 66 knots which is around 50 knots at surface - also surface pressure in the "eye" feature was 995 mb already

Expect an update from the NHC real soon ....

 

[Brian Emfinger]

This system may be about as close as we can come to having a system go straight from TD to Hurricane. Has that ever happened? The eye was visible (IR) this morning before it was even classified a TD. and to add on to what Stuart said. The recon also mentions a closed eye wall.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

As expected !

(note -- I would not normally post offical text as you all know where to find it but I thought that the situation warrented it)
WTNT62 KNHC 251803
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
GUSTAV WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR. A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO UPDATE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HISPANIOLA.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Mods - can we change the title of this tread to read Gustav ??

 

[Ryan Orlando]

This system may be about as close as we can come to having a system go straight from TD to Hurricane. Has that ever happened?

The only thing that comes even close to what is happening right now was Humberto in 2007. It went from a tropical depression to hurricane in 16 hours (if memory serves me right). At the rate Gustav is forming it might beat it by 10+ hours!

 

[cdcollura]

Very interesting...

The looks of it on the satellite, the 60 MPH speed does not suprise me. Over warm water, and with good outflow (in all quads, maybe a bit weak in SE), this one looks like a good candidate for rapid / explosive tropical cyclone development.

MODs: You can move this / start a new thread as "Tropcial Storm Gustav"?

 

[Warren Faidley]

On visible sat. it looks somewhat interesting, but a quick look at IR shows major disorganization. I'm not sure why, but the tropical systems are really having a difficult time this year with maintaining any type of prolonged structure. (Insert Stormiagra joke). However, with the existing circulation and outflow, it would not take much to get it going again I suppose.

Warren

 

[jladue]

The only thing that comes even close to what is happening right now was Humberto in 2007. It went from a tropical depression to hurricane in 16 hours (if memory serves me right). At the rate Gustav is forming it might beat it by 10+ hours!

This is just the problem we have when identifying a tropical cyclone. The NHC had to find westerly ground-relative winds south of the vortex before naming it a cyclone. For awhile this cyclone, like Fay, had tropical storm force winds to the north but no westerlies to the south and so they were prevented from advising or classifying it. Thus I don't think this vortex intensified as rapidly as it seems.


There could be a lot more leadtime to warnings if cyclones were classified by the presence of a vortex and the strength of the strongest winds relative to it rather than waiting for ground-relative opposing flow to its motion.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

OK here we go ... on the model flipflop merry go round...

18z GFDL, ECWRF, HWRF now all go bonkers with Gustav! in fact forecasting a GOOD aggrement of a CAT4 Hurricane North West of Cuba in about 5 days time. It seems that a ridge over the North GOM will actually keep Gustav SOUTH of Cuba in the near term, thus allowing Gustav to pass through the Yukan Channel and over the Gulf Loop into the GOM.

Of course this can all change (no one REALLY wants such a storm in the GOM) but right now all the signals are there that this could happen !

 

[Connor McCrorey]

Gustav is definitely strengthening based off of IR, and fast. In fact, it's looking better on each new frame. Like Stuart said, Gustav could get very strong very fast if it stays south of Cuba. Unlike many of this year's previous storms (Dolly, Edouard, Fay), it has managed to get its act together very quickly, which should definitely help it intensify faster.

 

[MClarkson]

The 00z GFS is in and has a due west track. Looking at the satellite imagery, I see nothing that looks remotely like this storm is going to go north at all. Good news... more time over water. Bad news... may not be chaseable in english speaking terrain.... another Yucatan storm?

 

[Jeff Richardson]

So far, this has been one of the most interesting Atlantic tropical seasons I've seen in years. The cyclones frequent erratic behavior has given me plenty of challenges in forecasting their paths and future intensity. Gustav is quite a storm though. Rarely have I noticed such a variety in forecast model output. Wouldn't surprise me if Gustav takes a swipe at the Yucatan.

Must say I agree with jladue and his comment on classifying by the presence of a vortex and strength of the strongest winds relative to it. I'm sure this would give better lead time in warnings for many situations.

 

[Matt Sellers]

07L: Gustav

Over the last 8 hours, Gustav has moved almost due west, although I think this may be a temporary leftward motion due to strengthening of convection rotating from west to south around its center. Some northerly shear is hitting the cyclone attm... but as it moves W/WNW, the shear should diminish and allow steady strengthening.

I also don't see much indication of a significant northward movement of Gustav - but the steering winds seem weak overall, especially after 2-3 days. While a general west-WNW track appears likely, a more northerly track can't be ruled out especially if the weak ridge forecast at 24-48h over the southeast Gulf-FL-Bahamas doesn't hold.

IMO - at 26/06z - there's an equal chance of Gustav hitting the Yucatan as there is of it hitting the northern Gulf Coast.

 

[Chad Cowan]

Only 14 hours after being declared a TD, Gustav has strengthened into a hurricane. If this tracks between Cuba and the Yucatan we could be looking at a monster in the Gulf and a Katrina-esque landfall. Crude oil closed at $115/bbl this afternoon and I'm going to put the oilcast Over/Under at $135/bbl on Monday, Sept 1. Speculators will drive the price through the roof if there is a Cat 3+ in the Gulf but track uncertainty is keeping my estimate moderate. As unpredictable as the tropical action has been this season, anyone from Belize to Bermuda needs to keep an eye (ahem) on this one.

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
220 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR. THIS CHANGE WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 5 AM EDT ADVISORY.

Scary Fact:

The name Gustav is Scandinavian meaning: "Staff of the Gods"



Scary Model:

 

[MClarkson]

You should take a peek at the 00z HWRF. Splitting the uprights between Cancun/Cuba and <908mb. heh heh...


*the HWRF and to a little lesser degree the GFDL are known to overestimate storm strength all the time.

Still, I like seeing so many isobars so close it blots out the wind barbs beneath them. I still dont like the lack of upper level anti-cyclone though. And after looking like it was steaming due west earlier, the post-eclipse satellite shots show an obvious jog north.