06/30/05: TALK: GREAT LAKES

[rdale]

"But the FRONT is stalled and still has not gone through. "

GRR's dew point went from 66 to 61 in the last hour - I don't think that it stalled ;>

I am surprised that the SWODY1 completly pulled southeast MI out of the risk - I can see how it's diminished but if these things do fire I can't imagine they'll die once they pass Jackson!

 

[Robert Dewey]

"But the FRONT is stalled and still has not gone through. "

GRR's dew point went from 66 to 61 in the last hour - I don't think that it stalled ;>

I am surprised that the SWODY1 completly pulled southeast MI out of the risk - I can see how it's diminished but if these things do fire I can't imagine they'll die once they pass Jackson!

I was thinking the same thing.

I also think that DTX removed a few counties from the watch before passing it on to the public...

Thinks already starting to pop in SW MI, will have to see what develops further north. Good sign that the cap has erroded enough to allow convection. Deep layer shear definitely supports severe weather.

 

[nickgrillo]

I don't see what counties that aren't included?

Take a look at GRR radar - cell is beginning to explode just SW of Kalamazoo.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I don't see what counties that aren't included?

Take a look at GRR radar - cell is beginning to explode just SW of Kalamazoo.

It was the local news stations error. They had Oakland, Lapeer, and Tuscola all included - which would actually make sense to me.

 

[John Thurston]

Huge explosion

Perhaps the front was stalled but sure didn't come in as fast as everyone was predicting.

Wonder if I can drop down 23 to intercept if it keeps going.

JT

 

[John Thurston]

Rotation

Perhaps some can correct me but when I look at cell in SW Michigan from GRR using Dupage radar site I see rotation?????????

Relative mean 1.5deg?

JT

 

[rdale]

Nope, it's a conglomeration of +/- 10 kt winds.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'm quite surprised that a warning isn't in effect for that storm. I guess they could be waiting for the VIL's to climb, since echo tops are starting to get up quite high. Looking at the VIS loop, there is quite a concentration of Cu and TCu just west of LAN. I would watch that area as well for additional development.

EDIT: Scratch that - warnings starting to fly. I was looking at GRR for the warnings. Doh!

 

[rdale]

They are working fine - it's the NWS servers.

It's a nice storm but I don't see anything that represents good rotation.

TAMDAR soundings out of Ft Wayne & South Bend within the last half-hour show good, but unidirectional, winds.

 

[John Thurston]

Heading out

Think I will drop down and look - target Dundee or further south.

Hope it holds together. Need a nowcaster (586)306-7244 if someone wants to help out in about an hour - 7:30PM EDT or so.

JT

 

[Robert Dewey]

That thing has turned into quite the supercell while I was away :wink:

Too bad directional shear isn't good, or we would probably be talking about a tornado on the ground. I'm still watching the cluster of Cu just north of LAN. Hopefully it can develop into something since I can't make it to the current cell.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'm debating on shooting down there, but I am afraid that I will either be too late, or it will be winding down. I could get down to Monroe county in time, if I headed out now and hit I-75.

 

[nickgrillo]

The storm continues to remain a supercell and DTX just put out a SVR for Lenawee county. The storm has a bit of rotation between Jonesville and North Adams in Hillsdale county with Shear at around 20KTS... Although I think the chances of it ever dropping a tornado are kind of slim.

 

[Robert Dewey]

The storm continues to remain a supercell and DTX just put out a SVR for Lenawee county. The storm has a bit of rotation between Jonesville and North Adams in Hillsdale county with Shear at around 20KTS... Although I think the chances of it ever dropping a tornado are kind of slim.

Hmm... I think it's turning into a small scale bow, with the northern end picking up a little of the usual rotation. VIL's still pretty high, no doubt that there will be some significant wind damage near the apex.

 

[Jason Montano]

That cell west of Detroit is actually looking kinda linear now I think and looks to be bowing a bit in the middle....

Also that line NE of of Indy is looking pretty mean, doppler indicating 1.25" hail and VIL of 63kg/m2...


EDIT: woops, guess I was posting the same time as post above.....