2024-05-25 EVENT: OK/KS/TX/MO/AR

[Brian McKibben]

Pressure falls and moisture return sucks because the system slowed down from what it was progged just 48 hours ago.

It is about 3-4 hour behind schedule which has huge implications for not only moisture, but initiation, storm mode, etc.

 

[Mike Smith]

Here's a 5-hr animation of today's tornado threat area: Surface data (METARs) plot [ict, 5]

OKC has gone from Td's of 49 to 58, ADM has gone from clear to low overcast. The moisture is making its way north.

Satellite look clearly shows that Kansas has the better upper level winds and both the 12Z analysis and the 12 hr forecast shows significant dkifluence over southern KS.

I wouldn't give up on the threat area north of U.S. 412 yet.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Old school methods say to get closer to the surface low, as I stated a few posts ago we have until about 02Z for visible not after-dark storms. Surface winds are picking up in western KS and OK, the moisture especially by 0-1 will probably be just fine in KS. After scoring Thursday I am more inclined to take somewhat of a gamble and head north from OKC

 

[JamesCaruso]

Been in GCK since Thursday’s debacle but about to leave and head toward Altus, possibly south into Texas around Vernon/Seymour. HRRR convective evolution does not look great but if it turns out to be correct I would want to be on the southern cell. If we overshoot south, it’s easier and safer to approach a storm from the south than from the north.

Having said that, the 12Z NAM appears to bring the moisture a little more north and west, with a slight dryline bulge that could make Shmrock TX a reasonable target. I’m not buying that right now, but will be looking at surface obs and satellite before continuing on south of there.

Agree with Dan that having to go into NW TX is not great as to roads and terrain. Would love to find a reason to stay in OK even with anxiety about getting caught in a slow-moving chaser caravan. Between that and the extreme CAPE reminiscent of El Reno day, it’s probably a day to be content with a little more distance from the meso.

BTW the Norman AFD has a good write-up - won’t help with targeting, but interesting analysis of the potential flies in the ointment. Today has both a high ceiling and a low floor.

Unlike @Matthew Crowther i screwed up big time on Thursday so going for the more likely shot today. In fact it sort of reminds me of Thursday, when I took a chance on SW KS and ignored the much higher moisture in OK.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Pressure falls and moisture return sucks because the system slowed down from what it was progged just 48 hours ago.

It is about 3-4 hour behind schedule which has huge implications for not only moisture, but initiation, storm mode, etc.

With this said... are dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s really that bad for southern Kansas?

Yes... some 70s would be nice, but you can get some really nice storms with anything above 65.

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

With this said... are dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s really that bad for southern Kansas?

Yes... some 70s would be nice, but you can get some really nice storms with anything above 65.

Any concern with the temperature and dewpoint spread being so large? Looking at Wichita (high 87) if the mid 60s dewpoints can make it there we are still looking at a ~22 spread.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

OKC's dew point jumped up 4F in one hour. The juice is coming north.

 

[Mike Smith]

Look at a 10a surface chart and you'll see winds have really picked up from the SE over southern KS and NW OK.

I live in far NE ICT (1 mi WNW of KAAO) and in the last 15-20 minutes the winds have gone from light to at least gusts to 20 kt from the SE.

We have a railcam in downtown Wichita.

You can see the trees swaying and the mic, which has a wind screen, is reflecting the stronger winds.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Any concern with the temperature and dewpoint spread being so large? Looking at Wichita (high 87) if the mid 60s dewpoints can make it there we are still looking at a ~22 spread.

Yes, but remember the real action is close to 00Z, as the temp cools the spread will go down.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Any concern with the temperature and dewpoint spread being so large? Looking at Wichita (high 87) if the mid 60s dewpoints can make it there we are still looking at a ~22 spread.

Definitely will take a bit of time for the bases to lower with a dewpoint depression that large. But still doable.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

Probably a losing bet today given the latest HRRR runs, but I may head west on I-40 to the Geary area just in case storms fire up and head toward the metro. Always like keeping an eye on stuff since I have family across the area. 700mb temps are pretty warm according to RAP so I figure there will be a storm or two all by themselves and after bagging the Eldorado tor I'm ok with not going down that way (especially north Texas) again for a bit.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I want to give Kansas a chance to trend in the right direction due to "wish bias" for the storm there to be viable. But the Red River target is so far away that one will need to commit to one or the other pretty early. I am begrudgingly on my way south on a course for Vernon Texas. I know there will be a great storm there, but I'm just hoping I can stay with it given roads and weekend traffic. I will reconsider if Kansas looks like it is coming together - I don't expect that right now.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

The RAP is really painting a SW OK picture between 00 and 03Z. Everything rapidly increases after 00Z with the low level jet and moisture going up.

As for the dewpoints, it seems we're in rapid moistening. +12 here in Norman from 3 hours ago.

 

[Mike Smith]

Here's some objective guidance with NADOCAST from 14Z is second from right.

I'm surprised by NADOCAST today. I have a great deal of respect for that product. It has consistently favored KS over OK but with less intensity (not hatching) than others.

The paintballs have consistently shown "corridors" in KS. The southern KS paintball corridor goes all the way into the Ozarks during the night. Last night's CSU guidance showed the max over southern OK -- which has pretty much disappeared in this morning's.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Probably a losing bet today given the latest HRRR runs, but I may head west on I-40 to the Geary area just in case storms fire up and head toward the metro. Always like keeping an eye on stuff since I have family across the area. 700mb temps are pretty warm according to RAP so I figure there will be a storm or two all by themselves and after bagging the Eldorado tor I'm ok with not going down that way (especially north Texas) again for a bit.

might not be a bad place to start. Track that jet streak over NM that is heading for the OK/TX border around I-40.

A few cams are hinting at initiation as this hits the DL. And from experience it seems plausible.