06/30/05: TALK: GREAT LAKES

Latest 15Z RUC still showing building instability later on. It's still looking like LAN eastward is the best bet, as Td's further west mix down into the low 60's. Temps in SW MI have rebounded quite nice, now in the lower 80's, but again, Td's will most likely mix out. Latest VIS shows thinning cloud tops over western lower MI, but it also shows quite a buildup of clouds taking place near IWX...

RUC also shows a decent mid level flow developing between 18Z-00Z, With 700-500mb winds increasing to 35-45knts. If the instability on the RUC can be realized, then I think the chances for severe thunderstorms will increase.

I did notice that Mt. Clemens managed to sneak up to 88F before the line blew through.
 
im liking the tornado threat and supercell threat that is skyrocketing into western MI at this time. helicity looks prime for rotating storms. again we need upper level winds from the jet streak too move in soon if we are going to see any rotating storms. as of now the sun is starting to shine once again in westering MI and things are going to explode there in a little bit. i agree with nick with a 5% upgrade of the tornado threat by 2000z outlook as this seems very likely now. we got the first line blast threw here and an isolated supercell storm in the line dropped a tornado just south of southfield here in SE lower michigan and also produced a funnel cloud about 4 miles north of livonia. should still continue to be an interesting day as of now and lets hope the sun comes out and upper level winds continue to start feeding in here.


Jason
 
im liking the tornado threat and supercell threat that is skyrocketing into western MI at this time. helicity looks prime for rotating storms. again we need upper level winds from the jet streak too move in soon if we are going to see any rotating storms. as of now the sun is starting to shine once again in westering MI and things are going to explode there in a little bit. i agree with nick with a 5% upgrade of the tornado threat by 2000z outlook as this seems very likely now. we got the first line blast threw here and an isolated supercell storm in the line dropped a tornado just south of southfield here in SE lower michigan and also produced a funnel cloud about 4 miles north of livonia. should still continue to be an interesting day as of now and lets hope the sun comes out and upper level winds continue to start feeding in here.


Jason
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i'm interested why you think supercells and torando threats are skyrocketing across west michigan? Most of the area is pretty stable with temps in the 70s.

also, the torando reports are from LEOs and may not be crediable. At least that is what local 4 out of det. is saying.
 
rdewey... i got that report from local 4 news here and they were tracking the storms with live calls being aired on TV from eye whitnesses and state troopers. and the supercell/tornado threat is going up because although temperatures for now are stable they are quickly going to get warm and unstable once again. have a look at a satellite image and that should help as it shows clouds breaking up over that area. and also the latest SPC mesoanalysis shows very good features and good numbers in regards to the supercell/tornado threat in that area. srh is about 150-200m/s in that area as well and so that should be more then enough for storms to develop and possibly go supercell. this again will all depend on how much heating we can regain and because its early yet and clouds are breaking already i think we still have a good chance for later on. lets hope for the best
 
As far as effective deep layer shear, it is favorable for supercells. Instability is also rapidly building across SW lower MI where clearing is occuring (per SPC mesoanalysis). As far as the tornado threat is concerned - Winds just behind that line of convection that went through have backed extensively. I expect these winds to veer to a more southerly direction as the afternoon progresses, thus lowering helicity.

Also, with the convergence being linear and no CAP in place, expect line segments and wind damage to be the main concern. Not saying there won't be any tornadoes, but the threat at this time doesn't look too concerning...
 
As far as effective deep layer shear, it is favorable for supercells. Instability is also rapidly building across SW lower MI where clearing is occuring (per SPC mesoanalysis). As far as the tornado threat is concerned - Winds just behind that line of convection that went through have backed extensively. I expect these winds to veer to a more southerly direction as the afternoon progresses, thus lowering helicity.

Also, with the convergence being linear and no CAP in place, expect line segments and wind damage to be the main concern. Not saying there won't be any tornadoes, but the threat at this time doesn't look too concerning...
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i'm corcerned nothing will form at all or if it does, the air won't be unstable enough in the eastern parts of the state to hold a decent threat of severe weather. The obs. don't show many places above 80 in the state at this time and we are approaching 1.30pm.
 
based off what DTX and IWX have said in there 130 updates, i take the most of the storms will be south of lower michigan with nothing north of flint. Figures, great june system and i see a couple sprinkles out of it. LOL

I'm still holding on to the slim chance something pops over western mich and moves east, but its not looking good at the time.
 
I'm starting to see Cu developing in SW MI, and another patch in northwest IN. This is probably the moisture convergence boundary, and is probably our best shot at convection for the rest of the day. Looping the VIS, this convergence area is moving quite a bit slower than the dry slot punching into the the back of the debris clouds to the east, so we will likely see some decent destabilization. It might be hard to get things to pop though, since there is quite a bit of dry air (850-500mb) working into the region... With that said, if storms were to develop, that would actually enhance the wind damage threat.
 
Skies have cleared out significantly across SW MI/Northern IN and temperatures have reached to 90F, with dewpoints approaching 70F. I guess the SPC is waiting until storms actually fire before they issue a watch...
 
Skies have cleared out significantly across SW MI/Northern IN and temperatures have reached to 90F, with dewpoints approaching 70F. I guess the SPC is waiting until storms actually fire before they issue a watch...
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Yeah, that would be a pretty safe thing to do actually. With the subsidence behind the initial line of convection, combined with the really dry air punching in at 850-700mb, and very weak convergence to set things off; there is still a chance that nothing will even happen...
 
In my opinion, the chance for anything special died with that system that moved through this morning.

I give a 10% chance that anything will happen between now and 5am tomorrow and a 90% chance nothing will happen severe weatherwise within the same time period.
 
SPC just put out a blue box for all but a couple counties. I can see the convergence line on the GRR radar, and the VIS loop shows quite a marked increase in Cu over that area. I'm still concerned about instability in SE MI though, as the sun is just now coming out, and it's already 4:45PM. I'm currently sitting here with a T of 76F... I would have like to see this hit at least 85F, but a pretty slim chance of that happening now...
 
See the box - or a whole bunch of talk about nothing

Wind here has picked up and the sun is out (I am at 81F).

But the FRONT is stalled and still has not gone through.

I still think there is a chance of something.

JT
 
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