06/30/05: TALK: GREAT LAKES

Here's a TALK thread for tomorrow. Additional development across Southern MI is possible in the afternoon on THURS, and with the instability/unidirectional shear in place, we could have a decent line blow through...

When will we get supercells in MI again? :lol:
 
Just to throw this out, the GFS has initialized the upper level winds much better than the NAM. The NAM is way too weak between 500-250mb per profiler observations. Given that, the GFS has better shear across the region tomorrow. Hopefully we can get some good instability to build in, as long as the junk to the west doesn't interfere TOO much.
 
I am feeling good about todays possibility, I just hope any activity from WI will be dead by the time it gets here. Assuming that we can get into the upper 80's temperatures, and upper 60's/low 70's dewpoints... Then there will be the potential for quite a bit of organized severe weather. I agree with the SPC on the low tornado threat, but I can still see a couple isolated supercells, especially in lower MI - and I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple tornadoes.
 
The storms over wisconsan are key, if they hold there own or send a bunch of crap this way, the heating is gonna be screwed and so will we. If they die, i hope, then there should be no problem sparking severe weather, the question is, which mode? Will things go superceller to start or just blow along the front at once and form a squall line. Time will tell.

Note: Two bow echos are not turning more east and moving between 50-60mph toward lake michigan. These are looking more and more like they will reach the L.P before dying. They will likely be non severe, but they could screw our heating. hopefully they will be gone by 7-8-9am.
 
I am feeling good about todays possibility, I just hope any activity from WI will be dead by the time it gets here. Assuming that we can get into the upper 80's temperatures, and upper 60's/low 70's dewpoints... Then there will be the potential for quite a bit of organized severe weather. I agree with the SPC on the low tornado threat, but I can still see a couple isolated supercells, especially in lower MI - and I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple tornadoes.

Yeah, I've been watching the stuff in WI hoping that it will die down. It's basically lost it's punch, and it needs to go away now :lol:

Check out DTX's WRF model: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/?page=wrfexpldisplay - It's usually relatively accurate in depicting activity via the reflectivity field... It pretty much kills off the current convection, and then by 19-21Z tomorrow, it explodes over southeast lower MI.

EDIT: I always like to look through previous events, and I generally use the July 2 1997 and June 8 1953 as analogs for determining tornado potential. It seems that MI gets it's strongest tornadoes from unseasonably low pressure systems located near the arrowhead of MN. Check it out: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/1953beecher/me...MapFeatures.php
 
EDIT: I always like to look through previous events, and I generally use the July 2 1997 and June 8 1953 as analogs for determining tornado potential. It seems that MI gets it's strongest tornadoes from unseasonably low pressure systems located near the arrowhead of MN. Check it out:http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/1953beecher/metMapFeatures.php

Shhhh, you gonna jinx it.

Man, the more i watch the radars out of WI, the more i fear crap, either in the form of clouds or weak storms/rain, will screw the heating tomorrow over the state. I hope i'm wrong.

FWIW, you have to admit that is one hell of a bow echo racing across WI right now.
 
Check out DTX's WRF model: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/?page=wrfexpldisplay - It's usually relatively accurate in depicting activity via the reflectivity field... It pretty much kills off the current convection, and then by 19-21Z tomorrow, it explodes over southeast lower MI.

Yeah, I've been using that for the past few weeks now, it's pretty good. I am not worried TOO much about that WI stuff, and its already starting to loose it's punch...
 
Check out DTX's WRF model: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/?page=wrfexpldisplay - It's usually relatively accurate in depicting activity via the reflectivity field... It pretty much kills off the current convection, and then by 19-21Z tomorrow, it explodes over southeast lower MI.

Yeah, I've been using that for the past few weeks now, it's pretty good. I am not worried TOO much about that WI stuff, and its already starting to loose it's punch...

Yeah, keep an eye on the IR satellite loop. What you really want to see is the eastern edge of the cloud tops get erroded. I think once convection hits the lake, and runs into the shortwave ridge, it will begin to dye. We'll still probably see some evidence of it in the morning, but it won't look nearly like it does now...
 
Aaaaah the Michigan presence in here is overwhelming!

I...unlike you all have nothing to worry about the in the way of convection from today to worry about. Instability is being progged on the order of 5000 j/kg across central Illinois, and wtih that sharp front moving in, things should really explode. However, given the unidirectional shear, I tend to think its going to be somewhat of an insta-squall line.

Maybe something can happen early on while things are slightly discrete, but I'm not counting on it.
 
I think 3km helicity and SBCAPE are with us today, but the potential for loss of daytime heating and overall serious lack of good upper level winds is a concern.

Overall, I think the risk of tornadoes will remain very small and isolated, based off of collective input from the RUC and NAM models. I wouldn't hold my breathe, but if the upper-level winds kick up, this is going to be good.
 
I think the main mode across MI should be linear today. I agree with Aric that the best mid level winds seem to hold back, but if we are able to destabalize after this current line moves through, then severe weather will be a pretty good bet. When you're talking about +3500J/KG of CAPE, it doesn't take much to get a line going. Add in any amount of wind shear, and things get organized pretty quickly. GRR/IWX is currently showing 40knts at 5-6K FT on the VAD, with MKX showing 50knts - Provided these winds don't weaken, shear should be good enough.
 
Unfortunately the dry air is almost to Milwaukee already! Dews are only around 60 now in Wisc so I'm a bit concerned that we'll bring that in before destabilizing...
 
Moisture

12Z Eta has 70+F dew points from Chicago all the way up through the U.P. at 15Z, however they are all in the mid-60's. It also says the closest 55*F dew should be in the Dakotas. They are in central Wisc ;>
 
Unfortunately the dry air is almost to Milwaukee already! Dews are only around 60 now in Wisc so I'm a bit concerned that we'll bring that in before destabilizing...

Yeah, that is concerning. The 12Z RUC seemed to handle the low level moisture pretty well, and it keeps 70F Td around from LAN eastward through just about 00Z. Given that, I think the best threat will be from LAN eastward.
 
i think its gonna be all or nothing. if we can get rid of the crap clouds and get some sunshine in the next few hours, storms should go somewhere around midstate, quickly go linear and race eastward with damaging winds being the threat. If we don't get rid of the clouds, well then this nice june storm system was all for nothing.

just my .02. today is one of those days i'm glad i live in the far eastern part of the state.
 
Latest 15Z RUC still showing building instability later on. It's still looking like LAN eastward is the best bet, as Td's further west mix down into the low 60's. Temps in SW MI have rebounded quite nice, now in the lower 80's, but again, Td's will most likely mix out. Latest VIS shows thinning cloud tops over western lower MI, but it also shows quite a buildup of clouds taking place near IWX...

RUC also shows a decent mid level flow developing between 18Z-00Z, With 700-500mb winds increasing to 35-45knts. If the instability on the RUC can be realized, then I think the chances for severe thunderstorms will increase.

I did notice that Mt. Clemens managed to sneak up to 88F before the line blew through.
 
im liking the tornado threat and supercell threat that is skyrocketing into western MI at this time. helicity looks prime for rotating storms. again we need upper level winds from the jet streak too move in soon if we are going to see any rotating storms. as of now the sun is starting to shine once again in westering MI and things are going to explode there in a little bit. i agree with nick with a 5% upgrade of the tornado threat by 2000z outlook as this seems very likely now. we got the first line blast threw here and an isolated supercell storm in the line dropped a tornado just south of southfield here in SE lower michigan and also produced a funnel cloud about 4 miles north of livonia. should still continue to be an interesting day as of now and lets hope the sun comes out and upper level winds continue to start feeding in here.


Jason
 
an isolated supercell storm in the line dropped a tornado just south of southfield here in SE lower michigan and also produced a funnel cloud about 4 miles north of livonia.

Jason

Where did you get that report?
 
im liking the tornado threat and supercell threat that is skyrocketing into western MI at this time. helicity looks prime for rotating storms. again we need upper level winds from the jet streak too move in soon if we are going to see any rotating storms. as of now the sun is starting to shine once again in westering MI and things are going to explode there in a little bit. i agree with nick with a 5% upgrade of the tornado threat by 2000z outlook as this seems very likely now. we got the first line blast threw here and an isolated supercell storm in the line dropped a tornado just south of southfield here in SE lower michigan and also produced a funnel cloud about 4 miles north of livonia. should still continue to be an interesting day as of now and lets hope the sun comes out and upper level winds continue to start feeding in here.


Jason

i'm interested why you think supercells and torando threats are skyrocketing across west michigan? Most of the area is pretty stable with temps in the 70s.

also, the torando reports are from LEOs and may not be crediable. At least that is what local 4 out of det. is saying.
 
rdewey... i got that report from local 4 news here and they were tracking the storms with live calls being aired on TV from eye whitnesses and state troopers. and the supercell/tornado threat is going up because although temperatures for now are stable they are quickly going to get warm and unstable once again. have a look at a satellite image and that should help as it shows clouds breaking up over that area. and also the latest SPC mesoanalysis shows very good features and good numbers in regards to the supercell/tornado threat in that area. srh is about 150-200m/s in that area as well and so that should be more then enough for storms to develop and possibly go supercell. this again will all depend on how much heating we can regain and because its early yet and clouds are breaking already i think we still have a good chance for later on. lets hope for the best
 
As far as effective deep layer shear, it is favorable for supercells. Instability is also rapidly building across SW lower MI where clearing is occuring (per SPC mesoanalysis). As far as the tornado threat is concerned - Winds just behind that line of convection that went through have backed extensively. I expect these winds to veer to a more southerly direction as the afternoon progresses, thus lowering helicity.

Also, with the convergence being linear and no CAP in place, expect line segments and wind damage to be the main concern. Not saying there won't be any tornadoes, but the threat at this time doesn't look too concerning...
 
As far as effective deep layer shear, it is favorable for supercells. Instability is also rapidly building across SW lower MI where clearing is occuring (per SPC mesoanalysis). As far as the tornado threat is concerned - Winds just behind that line of convection that went through have backed extensively. I expect these winds to veer to a more southerly direction as the afternoon progresses, thus lowering helicity.

Also, with the convergence being linear and no CAP in place, expect line segments and wind damage to be the main concern. Not saying there won't be any tornadoes, but the threat at this time doesn't look too concerning...

i'm corcerned nothing will form at all or if it does, the air won't be unstable enough in the eastern parts of the state to hold a decent threat of severe weather. The obs. don't show many places above 80 in the state at this time and we are approaching 1.30pm.
 
based off what DTX and IWX have said in there 130 updates, i take the most of the storms will be south of lower michigan with nothing north of flint. Figures, great june system and i see a couple sprinkles out of it. LOL

I'm still holding on to the slim chance something pops over western mich and moves east, but its not looking good at the time.
 
I'm starting to see Cu developing in SW MI, and another patch in northwest IN. This is probably the moisture convergence boundary, and is probably our best shot at convection for the rest of the day. Looping the VIS, this convergence area is moving quite a bit slower than the dry slot punching into the the back of the debris clouds to the east, so we will likely see some decent destabilization. It might be hard to get things to pop though, since there is quite a bit of dry air (850-500mb) working into the region... With that said, if storms were to develop, that would actually enhance the wind damage threat.
 
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