06/30/05: TALK: GREAT LAKES

[nickgrillo]

Here's a TALK thread for tomorrow. Additional development across Southern MI is possible in the afternoon on THURS, and with the instability/unidirectional shear in place, we could have a decent line blow through...

When will we get supercells in MI again? :lol:

 

[Robert Dewey]

Just to throw this out, the GFS has initialized the upper level winds much better than the NAM. The NAM is way too weak between 500-250mb per profiler observations. Given that, the GFS has better shear across the region tomorrow. Hopefully we can get some good instability to build in, as long as the junk to the west doesn't interfere TOO much.

 

[nickgrillo]

I am feeling good about todays possibility, I just hope any activity from WI will be dead by the time it gets here. Assuming that we can get into the upper 80's temperatures, and upper 60's/low 70's dewpoints... Then there will be the potential for quite a bit of organized severe weather. I agree with the SPC on the low tornado threat, but I can still see a couple isolated supercells, especially in lower MI - and I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple tornadoes.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

The storms over wisconsan are key, if they hold there own or send a bunch of crap this way, the heating is gonna be screwed and so will we. If they die, i hope, then there should be no problem sparking severe weather, the question is, which mode? Will things go superceller to start or just blow along the front at once and form a squall line. Time will tell.

Note: Two bow echos are not turning more east and moving between 50-60mph toward lake michigan. These are looking more and more like they will reach the L.P before dying. They will likely be non severe, but they could screw our heating. hopefully they will be gone by 7-8-9am.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I am feeling good about todays possibility, I just hope any activity from WI will be dead by the time it gets here. Assuming that we can get into the upper 80's temperatures, and upper 60's/low 70's dewpoints... Then there will be the potential for quite a bit of organized severe weather. I agree with the SPC on the low tornado threat, but I can still see a couple isolated supercells, especially in lower MI - and I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple tornadoes.

Yeah, I've been watching the stuff in WI hoping that it will die down. It's basically lost it's punch, and it needs to go away now :lol:

Check out DTX's WRF model: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/?page=wrfexpldisplay - It's usually relatively accurate in depicting activity via the reflectivity field... It pretty much kills off the current convection, and then by 19-21Z tomorrow, it explodes over southeast lower MI.

EDIT: I always like to look through previous events, and I generally use the July 2 1997 and June 8 1953 as analogs for determining tornado potential. It seems that MI gets it's strongest tornadoes from unseasonably low pressure systems located near the arrowhead of MN. Check it out: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/1953beecher/me...MapFeatures.php

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

EDIT: I always like to look through previous events, and I generally use the July 2 1997 and June 8 1953 as analogs for determining tornado potential. It seems that MI gets it's strongest tornadoes from unseasonably low pressure systems located near the arrowhead of MN. Check it out:http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/1953beecher/metMapFeatures.php

Shhhh, you gonna jinx it.

Man, the more i watch the radars out of WI, the more i fear crap, either in the form of clouds or weak storms/rain, will screw the heating tomorrow over the state. I hope i'm wrong.

FWIW, you have to admit that is one hell of a bow echo racing across WI right now.

 

[nickgrillo]

Check out DTX's WRF model: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/?page=wrfexpldisplay - It's usually relatively accurate in depicting activity via the reflectivity field... It pretty much kills off the current convection, and then by 19-21Z tomorrow, it explodes over southeast lower MI.

Yeah, I've been using that for the past few weeks now, it's pretty good. I am not worried TOO much about that WI stuff, and its already starting to loose it's punch...

 

[Robert Dewey]

Check out DTX's WRF model: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/?page=wrfexpldisplay - It's usually relatively accurate in depicting activity via the reflectivity field... It pretty much kills off the current convection, and then by 19-21Z tomorrow, it explodes over southeast lower MI.

Yeah, I've been using that for the past few weeks now, it's pretty good. I am not worried TOO much about that WI stuff, and its already starting to loose it's punch...

Yeah, keep an eye on the IR satellite loop. What you really want to see is the eastern edge of the cloud tops get erroded. I think once convection hits the lake, and runs into the shortwave ridge, it will begin to dye. We'll still probably see some evidence of it in the morning, but it won't look nearly like it does now...

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Aaaaah the Michigan presence in here is overwhelming!

I...unlike you all have nothing to worry about the in the way of convection from today to worry about. Instability is being progged on the order of 5000 j/kg across central Illinois, and wtih that sharp front moving in, things should really explode. However, given the unidirectional shear, I tend to think its going to be somewhat of an insta-squall line.

Maybe something can happen early on while things are slightly discrete, but I'm not counting on it.

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

I think 3km helicity and SBCAPE are with us today, but the potential for loss of daytime heating and overall serious lack of good upper level winds is a concern.

Overall, I think the risk of tornadoes will remain very small and isolated, based off of collective input from the RUC and NAM models. I wouldn't hold my breathe, but if the upper-level winds kick up, this is going to be good.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I think the main mode across MI should be linear today. I agree with Aric that the best mid level winds seem to hold back, but if we are able to destabalize after this current line moves through, then severe weather will be a pretty good bet. When you're talking about +3500J/KG of CAPE, it doesn't take much to get a line going. Add in any amount of wind shear, and things get organized pretty quickly. GRR/IWX is currently showing 40knts at 5-6K FT on the VAD, with MKX showing 50knts - Provided these winds don't weaken, shear should be good enough.

 

[rdale]

Unfortunately the dry air is almost to Milwaukee already! Dews are only around 60 now in Wisc so I'm a bit concerned that we'll bring that in before destabilizing...

 

[rdale]

Moisture

12Z Eta has 70+F dew points from Chicago all the way up through the U.P. at 15Z, however they are all in the mid-60's. It also says the closest 55*F dew should be in the Dakotas. They are in central Wisc ;>

 

[Robert Dewey]

Unfortunately the dry air is almost to Milwaukee already! Dews are only around 60 now in Wisc so I'm a bit concerned that we'll bring that in before destabilizing...

Yeah, that is concerning. The 12Z RUC seemed to handle the low level moisture pretty well, and it keeps 70F Td around from LAN eastward through just about 00Z. Given that, I think the best threat will be from LAN eastward.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

i think its gonna be all or nothing. if we can get rid of the crap clouds and get some sunshine in the next few hours, storms should go somewhere around midstate, quickly go linear and race eastward with damaging winds being the threat. If we don't get rid of the clouds, well then this nice june storm system was all for nothing.

just my .02. today is one of those days i'm glad i live in the far eastern part of the state.