06/07/07 NOW: IA/MN/WI/MI/IL/IN/KS/MO/OK/TX/AR

[Billy Griffin]

Looks like the DL has either stalled or is trying to (just ever so slightly) back up over central OK. This will likely prevent cap erosion until the upper impulse kicks in later this evening/overnight. Then again, maybe the cap is all but gone. I don't think so, otherwise we'd have at least isolated convection going on in the warm sector. With the dryline stalling or slowing down, as it appears to be doing by my observation, forcing will be very weak as well.

Confidence still pretty low for tornadoes in OK - IMHO. I'm still hoping though. But just an amateur observation leads me to believe the probabilities are fading. In addition, the Cu field looks much softer than just a half an hour ago.

 

[Angie Norris]

Been watching this all afternoon, and I do agree with Billy. On FDR radar, the dryline is quite visible, and does appear to be moving very slightly back to the northwest. The Cu field is not growing, but does appear propagating to the southwest. OUN did send up an 18Z sounding that showed the cap was weaker, but CAPE had decreased as well. I'd say we're pretty much capped still. It's not looking good so far, but I'm not totally giving up hope yet. If nothing else, maybe we'll get a decent squall line out of it after dark.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Chris Collura and I raced along behind the cell which moved through Wisconsin Rapids. Chris has images of the tornado as it was reported in town. When we arrived in town, we were temporarily stopped due to a down power line, but were able to continue into town. We gave up on the tornado due to speeds, but stopped to shoot the insane hail left behind; up to 4.5 inches in diameter measured 20 minutes after core passage. I have posted a couple shots from the cell phone on my blog.

http://www.tornadoeskick.com/blog.html

 

[Jim Zandonai]

All cells from far northern MO across eastern IA, and into southern WI are laughable. All are small and as a poster above said, "pulsing." The cells in northwest MO almost seem to be sapping their strength a bit. This seems to happen a lot when a line (or broken line) is oriented NE/SW.

Got off work around 3, and was all geared to go out. Now it looks like we're gonna pop a few beers and wait for what's left of the "squall line" to sweep through this evening...

No doubt about it this line is embarrasing..no wonder with all the hype the public has trouble paying attention to Tornado watches..really odd though with all the high risk that this is all that happened beside a few strong cells..and although some have been T-warned I am not impressed. Its not over yet but so far its quite a bust overall from what was expected unless something dramatic happens..I think a beer sound good. Cheers.

 

[David Draun]

I've noticed the line starting to weaken too. Mesoanalysis shows the cap strengthening over northern Illinois now. It almost looks like that line won't hold together much longer. Though I've seen days like this where things got going around sunset.

Ugh. and as I type this, a big hole in the cap develops right NW of my area. I think things could go soon.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I dont see how today was a bust considering all of the tornado reports and large hail reports. Not what we were expecting but severe storms did form. If you wanted to see a tornado WI was the place to be today.

NWS still expecting initiation by 7 PM for OK and TX. Show is not over yet.

 

[Rodney Price]

It's important to remember that the Day 1 outlook goes out until 12Z (7am CDT) Friday morning...there's still a LOT of time left in the High risk forecast.

No, I'm not employed by SPC...just stating the facts.

Rodney

 

[MatthewCarman]

A friend posted on another site he came back from a weather conference and a new tornado watch is likely in the next few hours with winds of 90 MPH and baseball size hail possible. That is what he heard in the conference. So this event could just be taking a deep breath.

 

[MatthewCarman]

2" hail and 80 MPH winds being reported with the storm in Chariton county MO. It is inpressive on radar.

 

[David Draun]

It's important to remember that the Day 1 outlook goes out until 12Z (7am CDT) Friday morning...there's still a LOT of time left in the High risk forecast.

No, I'm not employed by SPC...just stating the facts.

Rodney

SPC gives an idea what may happen, and they are fairly accurate, but just like other forecasts, they are adjusted as conditions warrant. I don't believe the high risk will remain in the next Day 1 issuance. It's good to interpret those outlooks into your own forecasting of what might happen

New MD out concerning TOR box number 360. Emphasis on cirrus canopy, cap, and minimal convergence which is hampering thunderstorm development. Existing convection should develop cold pools to erode more of the CIN that's in place. I think things could get quite interesting in N. IL around sunset as the nocturnal LLJ strengthens into the evening hours. Could get one hell of an MCS out of this.

 

[MatthewCarman]

GRLevel3 is showing a purple cone (TVS?) which would mean a possible tornado east of Hardin MO moving towards Norborne. Be interesting to see if this storm gets strong rotation with it.

EDIT this storm has a meso with it according to radar and a VIL of 76 with a DBZ of 74! This storm is intense. This is for the severe storm east of Kansas City. Another strong storm producing winds to 67 MPH as it moves into Kansas City or over the airport.

 

[Ilya Neyman]

Initiation may be imminent across Oklahoma as bands of cu are really crispining on satellite now, with towers visible from both ground views and landscape shadowing. Several areas of interest: one is around the OKC area, another toward Ada and the third a consolidating wall of cumulus lifting northward along the dryline around the Duncan area.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The cell over Wyandotte Co., Kansas looks like it might be trying to intensify a bit again, and a new SVR warning has been issued on it. These things keep training over the same places, which is causing some big flood concerns. This one will again be moving right over the city. Still very warm/humid here near the Plaza. They've really slowed down considerably over the past couple of hours, which makes me want to go back out and have a look at this one in case it does decide to take the same route of the Ray Co. supercell. Very nice structure today - even though the rotation often appeared embedded, with the updrafts at times obscurred by the cores of approaching cells training in from the west. Still some very impressive sights -

The storm that initiated over Independence and has since moved east across the I-70 area is also severe and has supercell characteristics on radar. Nothing like a few training supes.

 

[Billy Griffin]

A bit off-topic, but also in conjunction with ongoing weather... is that a dust storm visible on satellite imagery over much of western Kansas. This feature appears to be blowing in from the northwest. Absolutely no convection along it, whatever it is. Unique looking - almost like a dust tsunami heading through central Kansas. ;-)

Still awaiting, and hoping, here in Norman. I can step outside and watch towers go up, then hit the cap and shear apart. Perhaps when the jet streak arrives?

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I can't tell what that feature is on satellite ... almost looks like an outflow boundary, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's dust, considering the surface winds today. I had a large, 8" diameter branch fall right in front of me in the park today that took out a huge divot in the ground (fortunately not my head).

While we're on the subject of satellite, though - take a look at the overshooting top on what had been the Ray county storm. Excellent bubble up there that is really apparent with the sun's lower angle now.

By the way, I agree with Joel's former post that the anvil blowoff from the NW Missouri convection totally through a monkey wrench into eastern IA, western IL. That does seem to happen every now and then.