06/07/07 NOW: IA/MN/WI/MI/IL/IN/KS/MO/OK/TX/AR

[Ilya Neyman]

That storm crossing the Red River just north of Wichita Falls is the one to watch!

It is staying on the dryline as long as possible maximizing convergence until it really roots, at which point it should turn more easterly.

Could be a significant situation for Cottons and Stephens Counties this evening!

Stay safe!!

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Sitting at home here in Pittsburg, KS. Cumulus clouds fill the sky, but nothing evolving into anything.. they're hauling pretty fast.

 

[Shane Adams]

Mickey Ptak just called reporting the storm north of SPS is "A beauty"....he's heading SW from Marlow to intercept.....as for us, our tower is looking very crispy and delicious....still spitting out light returns.

 

[Justin Bailey]

the latest returns off that cell north of tulsa (county?) is starting to look a lot better! i think both of the 2 storms could turn into real beauties pretty soon! good luck guys!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

The 00z OUN sounding is completely uncapped, almost well-mixed to 700mb, with an LFC well below that. I have absolutely no idea why we haven't seen sustained convection across central OK. My only guess would be the same as TSA noted in an AFD / meso update -- limited residence time within the region of strong convergence. Even at that, however, I would think that 5500 j/kg SBCAPE and >4000 j/kg MLCAPE, with negligible capping, would be enough to get convection going in the presence of strong convergence along the dryline evident in mesoscale analyses. Very frustrating, to say the least.

--> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/07060800_OBS/last.gif

 

[Billy Griffin]

Storm north of Wichita Falls now has a nice signature on radar, at least the more classic signature. If only it could root and take off. Looks to track towards the Duncan area within the 1/2 hour.

WOW - it's remarkable how well you can make out the dryline on visible satellite imagery! The air is so clear behind the dryline, with hazy conditions (obviously) on and east. And the cold front is racing SSE through Kansas - again, both very visible on satellite.

 

[beaudodson]

The 00z OUN sounding is completely uncapped, almost well-mixed to 700mb, with an LFC well below that. I have absolutely no idea why we haven't seen sustained convection across central OK. My only guess would be the same as TSA noted in an AFD / meso update -- limited residence time within the region of strong convergence. Even at that, however, I would think that 5500 j/kg SBCAPE and >4000 j/kg MLCAPE, with negligible capping, would be enough to get convection going in the presence of strong convergence along the dryline evident in mesoscale analyses. Very frustrating, to say the least.

--> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/07060800_OBS/last.gif

Nice explanation of why they haven't taken off at the bottom of this thread
http://www.stormvista.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=1509&st=600

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Nice explanation of why they haven't taken off at the bottom of this thread
http://www.stormvista.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=1509&st=600

I don't know about that explanation. It's all relative to where the parcel originated...if it's coming from the surface, it's got plenty of instability regardless of lapse rates in any layer. If it's coming off the top of the BL, then yes the explanation makes sense because those parcels would be dealing with not so good lapse rates. I think a big problem is that the storms took to long to try and actually are trying in a weakening forcing time period. Heating is going, the wind fields in OK have been weaking and the convergence wasn't that great...so while the storms did try, they just didn't have enough to get through it. As I say this, I'm flipping through the tilts and the storm E of FDR is trying to get some good dBZ up to the top. Maybe this one tried just at the right time...

 

[Brian Hartmann]

Looking out my front door in Bartlesville, OK, the towers are going up quickly but losing much in the way of their sharp definition once they encounter the warm air aloft.

The cell north of me along the OK/KS border is showing some pulsing initiation, but all are suffering the same fate.

The cell to the SW coming into Osage Co. doesn't seem to be making it quite as far before hitting the warm air. This is showing up nicely on radar.

Brian

 

[Billy Griffin]

Yawn, yawn. Was really hoping the cell crossing over the Red River would produce - at least something. Looks like a combination of both lack of forcing and capping. I'm curious how the soundings indicate the cap has eroded, yet you can still watch it visibly hold down convective towers just by looking at the towering Cu?

Hell, I'm beginning to wonder if even the damn cold front will initiate anything. Arghh!

I'm sure when the CF catches up with the moist air, we'll hear thunder at about 4am and the kiddos will come running in the bedroom.

 

[Angie Norris]

Yawn, yawn. Was really hoping the cell crossing over the Red River would produce - at least something. Looks like a combination of both lack of forcing and capping. I'm curious how the soundings indicate the cap has eroded, yet you can still watch it visibly hold down convective towers just by looking at the towering Cu?

Hell, I'm beginning to wonder if even the damn cold front will initiate anything. Arghh!

I'm sure when the CF catches up with the moist air, we'll hear thunder at about 4am and the kiddos will come running in the bedroom.

LOL.. my furry children will wake me up wanting to go out and watch the storm...strange kitties
Been outside taking some pics of the storm, or more properly, storms. Huge anvil, very sharp updraft on the first one, second one was working on putting up a small overshoot. Not bad...

 

[David Draun]

SVR for Davenport/Quad Cities area. It's a pretty nice cell, looks like a sup. Upstream development showers now popping into Western IL near I-88. Another cell just east of the Quad Cities one is really exploding!

This could be the begining of the IL show!

EDIT: Is that a hook I see forming on the DVN storm? It's moving into an area with high supercell composites.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

I've noticed the line starting to weaken too. Mesoanalysis shows the cap strengthening over northern Illinois now. It almost looks like that line won't hold together much longer. Though I've seen days like this where things got going around sunset.

Ugh. and as I type this, a big hole in the cap develops right NW of my area. I think things could go soon.

Hmmm looks like you may be right David..some big cells(over 55KFT) trying to get going around the Quad Cities as it rockets off at 55mph ! I Guess patience might be a good thing here today..
Interesting to see if we develop a MCS

 

[Jim Tang]

A skew-t from a different source (other than SPC) did show a slight inversion at 700mb. Given the lack of forcing, that is likely why OK has largely remained capped.

 

[Shane Adams]

As of this writing, we've done 1,741 miles the past two days (that doesn't include a hotel stay) and have had our a$$es handed to us. Sitting on US75 north of Tulsa, wondering what, if 5000j/kg and 85/72 can't do it, can make a decent storm in Oklahoma.....also trying to figure out why this amemic storm doesn't seem to be moving much.....winds at all levels are racing. But at this point I really don't care why it's not moving.

I'm looking for.....holy sh$%....lightning just hit a radio tower a quarter mile ahead of us....anyway, I'm looking forward to some greasy food, a shower, and some sleep. You win Mother Nature, ya biatch.

EDIT: BTW, if anyone read my morning post regarding our decision to blow off the northern target today, you know I'm an idiot.