Jeremy Ludin
EF2
New tornado warned cell nearing Fergus Falls, MN. Squall line setting up and barrelling my way in northern MO/southern IA. It doesn't look like I'll be getting out today unfortunately.
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- Weather and Chasing
- Target Area
Justin Turcotte
EF5
Northwest Minnesota
Not much talk of the northern target area so will throw it out... Robust LI's near the boundary in northwest MN as dry slot works its way north. Starting to see some 0-3km CAPE develop and LFC is dropping fast east of Fargo so would expect some surface based cells to pop shortly. 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear will aid with development of robust cells. Tor box is out for this area and one is certainly possible if a cell pops in the very unstable air then interacts with the boundary. Sitting in Grand Forks taking the wait and see approach as this type of set-up is difficult to pre-position for.
David Draun
EF5
I still wonder exactly what is making these tornado probabilities so high. Special sounding launch at Topeka shows a hodograph that is nearly a straight line. I see no backed winds anywhere at the surface across the risk area. The storms will definitely have to root on boundaries. I see a huge squall line developing from MI to TX this afternoon right along the front. There is some impressive instability developing out there right now. One area in MN has an LI of -9! Too unidirectional for tornadoes IMO.
Terry Kollmeyer
EF0
Ah yes...where to go, where to go...hmmm
Well...I think I'm going to wander northward across the cheddar curtain. Somewhere around Monroe sounds loike a good place to start. Hopefully road structure is not too bad (or terrain hilly).
Anyone up in that area looking for someone to chase with can give me a yell...(815)416-8357. This is the wife's phone, Nextel is currently doing surgery on mine, but I'll have her's on me.
Stay safe and good luck to all.....
Bill Hark
EF5
I agree with David. There are no backed winds except in NE MN and Wis across the forecast area. The 500 level winds are also from the SW. I do the maings of mainly a massive squall line. Ther is already al line of convection from NE Kansas to eastern Iowa.
Bill Hark
Tom Dulong
EF2
Tornado reported by public 9 miles north of Fergus Falls, MN.
Chris C Sanner
EF5
There's a CAPE bullseye of 5500 just to my N and E here in Southern Oklahoma. Winds seem to have started to back a bit and I can see a decent little cu field over my head right now. I'm waiting until 3 to pull any triggers but I think my move will be to jog north and west to try and be in better position for any storms that will form. With the expected storm motions, playing catch up will be rough to impossible and core punching is NOT allowed today with the giganto hail expected in some of these things.
Tom Dulong
EF2
Advise keepiing an eye on the new development over Norman and Mannomen counties in MN. Cells appear to be near the warm front in an area of localized surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Several impressive supercells now ongoing in west-central Wisconsin. Am a bit concerned about this persistent cloud cover over south-central Wisconsin for the past couple of hours.
If anybody's route takes them by the Stoughton area, drop me a PM or 608-658-5024.
Josh Richardson
EF4
Getting a late start on the chase today since I got home from SD at about 5 am this morning. We are about 20 miles to the west of the backbuilding cell in NE IA and catching up to it somewhere around the New Hampton. Towers look pretty good from back here.
Bryan Putnam
EF0
MLCape is also 3000 around the same region and the cap has been decreasing, down to -50 from a lot higher earlier.
The 18z OUN sounding balloon popped ....thats always a good sign.
Justin Turcotte
EF5
I never saw a good velocity couplet on the storm. That said the thing is near the outer reach of radar coverage. The cell appears to be very near the primary surface boundary and looking at the VIS there may be another boundary intersecting the primary one. The only helicity would be near the boundary so the tornado could be of the landspout variety.Brandon Goforth
I'd like to be sitting in the OKC area, but no way I'm going to deal with heavy rush hour traffic, especially on a day like today. With storm motions today there's no way to keep up in high population areas, so I'm going to hope things develop just to the south. Unfortunately if things go just to the north of OKC you won't be catching up...and if you setup north of OKC and things build to the south you won't catch up...so I'm just hoping to get lucky. We might get a good supercell stay just south of a Chickasha to Purcell line. At least that's what I'm hoping for.Tom Pastrano
What are the expected storm motions in Oklahoma? It was my understanding they would be around 30-35MPH moving east northeast which seems reasonable. I would expect the 1st storm area to fire up close to Lawton with the next area going up around El Reno by 4-5PM. Heading toward area between Duncan and Pauls Valley.Mike Peregrine
EF5
The cell just northwest of KC looks great right now from the window. Perfect updraft, backsheared anvil. Looks linear down this way on radar, but this is the tail end storm before the break in the line and it has a pretty healthy appearance from here. Wish I could be out there - then again, this thing is moving at light speed. Everytime I look it's about 10-15 miles further up the pike.Similar threads
