Will the zonal pattern, cap, and drought end over central and southern texas?

[Paul Redmond]

I am thinking beyond severe weather chasing now. I would be happy with just a cold steady low pressure system rain. It is really dry here now in central and south texas and we have been very lucky so far in regards to wild fires. The only local fire outbreak has been far west in Ozona. Still it would be nice to see some supercells around here. With the last cold frontal passage, the predicted dry line never formed and the atmosphre was totally capped yet again. Rain come soon please!

 

[Eric Bucsela]

As a Californian, I feel your pain. Unfortunately, every long-term climate model I've seen predicts increasing drought conditions over the western & southwestern US, mainly as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

Here's the long view:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/06/090616133944.htm
http://www.epa.gov/region6/climatechange/maps.htm

and here's the short:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

On the other hand the rainy winter we had in CA during 2010-2011 proves that there can at least be bright spots!

 

[Kelly Sugden]

Paul, I hear your pain. SW Kansas is in D3 and D2 drought conditions. I am hopeful for rain/convection next week with a broad trough over the western conus. Time will tell and some areas in my CWA might see some mitigation in terms of drought severity if the synoptic pattern develops as suggested by the ECMWF.

 

[Stephen Levine]

I am holding the Vision that perhaps you will find relief in Late June or July with a general windshift to the S.E. and eventual tropical system influence moving up into your area.