Will Ft. Morgan, CO vs. Kiowa, CO have higher chance of severe T-storms Sat (6/11/11)

[Carol Sidofsky]

The Boulder, CO office of the Nat'l Weather Service has this forcast (at 9 pm here in Colorado) for Ft. Morgan, CO, for tomorrow (Sat. 6-11-2011):

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Some storms could be severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy, with a south wind 9 to 12 mph increasing to between 20 and 23 mph. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

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Here's their forcast for Kiowa, CO, also for tomorrow (Sat. 6-11-2011):

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Some storms could be severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Breezy, with a south wind 22 to 25 mph becoming south 13 to 16 mph. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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One difference between these 2 forcasts, is that there's a higher chance of precipitation (predicted) for Kiowa, compared to Fort Morgan.

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Can we tell from the 2 forcasts, which of these 2 areas might have a higher number of severe thunderstorms tomorrow?

Does a higher chance of precipitation ever correlate with having a higher chance for higher numbers of severe thunderstorms (or even just more thunderstorms)?

What about low precip supercells?

Carol in Colorado
cell: 970-531-5000
[email protected]

 

[Bryan Stokes]

Hi Carol,

The chance of precipitation does not correlate to the number of severe thunderstorms. It just correlates to the chance of precipitation.

As chasers, we generally look for areas with the best ingredients for supercells, which in and of itself, is also different from severe thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms can be standalone storms, or embedded in a cluster of storms, which is often known as a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System)...but these types of severe storms are not the grand prize we're all looking for, which is supercells.

As for the ingredients needed for supercells, one could write a multi-page post trying to explain what's needed, but generally, you're looking for 4 basic ingredients:

1) Moisture
2) Instability
3) Shear
4) Lifting Mechanism

When the right mix of the above ingredients come together, you can get a rotating updraft, which can lead to a supercell.

One of the best things you can do to learn more is to pick up two of Tim Vasquez's books:
Storm Chasing Handbook
Severe Storm Forecasting

Read these through and through, and you'll be well on your way to learning more about forecasting and storm chasing.

As for tomorrow, I too will be out chasing in Colorado, but I won't nail down my target area until tomorrow morning. I'll likely post my thoughts in a forecast thread, but please be forewarned, I'm nowhere near as experienced as many others on Stormtrack. This is only my 4th season chasing and 2nd year of forecasting...and I have a lot to learn!

Best of luck if you head out tomorrow,
Bryan

 

[Andy Jackson]

Since you live about equidistant to both areas you decide. One location might see storms develop earlier but I believe that there will be severe weather in both areas. Maybe there are some local CO. chasers on here you might ask if you can chase with.

 

[Allan Jeffers]

I have to wait until after work tomorrow before I get the chance to go out, I hope things can wait until around 5PM before things start to fire. I don't have a real target in mind but I am thinking Deer trail / Bennett / Byers *IF* I can get out to chase. Even still, I may not be out east enough. Right now the SPC gave eastern colorado a "slight risk" for tomorrow - my targets may not be east enough or storms my fire before I get off work.

I too am very new at this, never forecasted and probably just hijacked your thread a little (sorry about that!) I opted for Bennett and the area because its easy to get to for us and we can stay off the highway. Barr Lake / brighton area may be a target as well if the storms decide to crawl up I-76 which I have noticed they often do

 

[Carol Sidofsky]

Thank you all for your helpful replies (including recommending the books by Tim Vasquez!). My hubby Dave and I will also decide tomorrow, while driving down from the mountains, where we think we should start driving towards, looking for storms--and we can adjust our plans as needed.

I just hope my seemingly fragile internet connection to my laptop stays on more than it has been doing, when I've been driving around! If I can find my external antenna connector, I'll try connecting it to my Verizon Novatel USB 727 modem, to let me use my old Wilson mag mount antenna on the roof of the van.

Dave will drive & I'll try to navigate. We'll be listening to our weather radio, and checking the sky a lot too.

Our thoughts tonight (could change in the morning) were to drive down I-25 to Castle Rock, and then go east (into the Palmer Divide area) on Hwy 86 through Franktown, Elizabeth, Kiowa, towards Limon.

We also thought of going east on I-70 towards Limon, too, so that if things developed further north, we could end up on I-76 going northeast.

But we'll see! Good luck to all of you!

Carol
cell: 970-531-5000
[email protected]

 

[Patrick Martin]

Carol - looks like a SE upslope type event with an upper impulse helping to fire storms, which will likely favor more of the Palmer Divide (ie, Elizabeth to Kiowa to Limon). Also appears that the best upper flow will be more south as well which would favor a more southern target for better structured storms and a possible tornado. If you set up shop in Limon, you do have the option of moving north out of Limon on hwy 71 straight up to Ft Morgan/Brush on a good straight north rd, or dropping S or SE on 71 or 287. Have to keep an eye on things b/c if we do get a Denver Cyclone setting up, either target could play out well depending on moisture return.

Take that with a grain of salt though as there are many others on this board that are far better forecasters than I. Regardless, I will be out this afternoon as well.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

It's Saturday, it's eastern CO with 50+ degree dewpoints and southeast surface winds and southwest 500 mb. Yea, I'll be out!

The models are wishy washy about the placement of the impluse this afternoon and finding it will be the key to go north or south. However, the Palmer divide and the Raton Mesa always have storms. I wish we could get a nice Palmer Divide tornadic supercell.

 

[Carol Sidofsky]

We started out yesterday (Sat., 6/11/2011) later than we should have, going east on I-70, and at Byers, continued going east on Hwy 36, ending up in Anton (E. of Last Chance). We went a bit east of Anton, and pulled over, to talk with another storm chaser (who we learned, frequents this forum!).

We saw big dark gray storms (lots of lightning, wind) to our east & southeast. These were part of a line of storms that were moving from the Castle Rock area, ENE. and which storms eventually crossed both I-70 & US Hwy 36.

There was a small-ish trapezoidal shaped tornado warned red outlined area, on my Boulder/Denver Nat'l Weather Service reflectivity composite radar loop, during #7, 8 & 9--of the 10 radar shots in each loop, for a while.

The brief tornado warning (not covering a very large area) I saw on my laptop, was for an area northeast of Limon.

We think we might have seen something, if we had earlier gone on I-70 all the way to Limon & waited there.

Couldn't get enough reception many times on my weather radio--never heard a tornado warning. Can the Midland weather radio take an external antenna?

Also looking way farther off to north/northeast, we saw distant big white (lit up by sun) storms that were east of Greeley (we think heading eastish towards Ft. Morgan).

My Verizon (Novatel) USB 727 broadband card worked much better than the other day. Problem may have been a combination of an intermittent USB connection with one of the USB ports in the back of my used laptop (I now use the better connection USB port), plus occasional poor Verizon signal.

Got thrown off the internet both a bit west & east of Last Chance.

It was a learning experience, and we have a lot more to learn! But we still enjoyed chasing yesterday, seeing great looking storms, scenery, neat looking Western Kingbird, etc.

Did anyone have better luck yesterday? If yes, where did you go?

Carol
cell: 970-531-5000
[email protected]