When is the best time to chase?

[Marko Korosec]

Hello all,

I am checking this page by Robert Prentice about choosing the best time period for chasing in States. http://www.stormtrack.org/library/forecast...st/besttime.htm
Seems 2nd half of May would be the best, but what do you guys can recommend from your experiences, when to chase?

I know it depends on situations, but still.

Thanks for answers!

Regards,

 

[Morgan Palmer]

I absolutely concur with the entire month of May for the southern plains (like KS, OK, TX) and later in the early summer for points north. It's hard for me to take time off in the month of May for work reasons, and have only had limited luck in April.

Storms in March and April tend to move too fast to chase, though there are always wonderful exceptions!

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I absolutely concur with the entire month of May for the southern plains (like KS, OK, TX) and later in the early summer for points north. It's hard for me to take time off in the month of May for work reasons, and have only had limited luck in April.

Storms in March and April tend to move too fast to chase, though there are always wonderful exceptions!

I absolutely agree with Morgan. To me the best week is from 7th to 14th.

 

[B Ozanne]

I think its key to pick an historically active period, buts its also important to give yourself the maximum amount of time possible to chase. Everyone has restrictive schedules, but its best to squeeze in as many extra chases days as possible.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I'm not sure if it's just me but it seems like the best part of the severe wx season creeps in a little bit later each year. I'm probably going to try to take off the last 2 weeks of May and the first 2 weeks of June. As of late, it seems like Mother Nature is behind a month or so.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I know not everyone can do this, but the best time to chase is when the large-scale pattern is favorable. It's a huge gamble to set chase vacation dates in stone because there is a good chance you'll be out during a 2-3 week death ridge. The best way to see tornadoes is to let the atmosphere control your plans.

If at all possible, at least try bargaining with your employer to work out something like shaving a few days off of your vacation in exchange for the flexibility to take it anytime between May 1 and June 15. Then you can take four days to chase a string of nice setups rather than sit out under a clear sky for 2 weeks. Then, your boss has a few more days of productivity from you, and you've got a satisfying chase trip with lots of 'naders to take home.

 

[Jay McCoy]

2 words******** Memorial Weekend!!!!!!!!

nuff said

 

[nickgrillo]

It's really a gamble to pick which time of year to go. Let's go year to year (recent few years)...

In 2003, if you went to the plains in the first two weeks of May, you'd score...
In 2004, if you went during that period, it primarily sucked (with the exception of 5-12-04 in southcentral KS) and the last 10 days of May rocked...
In 2005, if you went anytime during May, severe weather was quite scattered and good days were far between...

In May 2005, the only notable days were the 10th (in southern Nebraska (nice mothership supercell, but thanks to high LCLs and lack of low-level shear, no tornadoes)), the 11th was decent for the very few who waited along the dryline in western Kansas, the 12th was incredible for those who played with the high-precip sups in the TX panhandle, and the 13th carried a nicely striated supercell in northwest TX as well.

In June 2005, everything changed... You had quite a few good tornado days, including the 4th (hard to find the tornadoes, but there was a few very nice ones), the 7th in South Dakota, the 9th in Kansas, the 11th and 12th in the TX panhandle and the 29th in MN (and a few other days for a few other chasers).

Me and Kurt Hulst set out towards the plains on the 27th of April, for a 3 week trip. We started with the setup in AR/MS and chased a high-precip supercell into northcentral MS afterdark (yeah, we needed a bad storm, really bad) and then set out towards OKC, only to meander around the area for the next 10 days, stormless. By the time my first "vacation" was over, I had gotten about 5 tornadoes and several nice storms. But, it wasn't enough, so I went back out again in early June for an additional two weeks (and got about three times the amount I did in the first half).

I guess you can say the longer the time you have available to chase, the better (well, obviously) as you will have more setups to chase. In my case, I have plenty of time... LOL :lol:

 

[Andrew Khan]

I am favorable to all of may and the first half of june.

 

[Dick McGowan]

I would have to say November, at least this year.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Dan has the right idea. If you can, pick your vacation time as near to chase season as possible. Climatology is fun to talk about in the winter, but you wouldn't want your life to depend on any season's adherence to it.

Here's a link to a recent tornado climo paper that indicates some local climatologies. Again, if you have to choose right now, and you only have one week to spend, the evidence suggests that the best chance to see a tornado in the shortest period of time is around the Texas panhandle at the very end of May (Brooks et al 635). In this study, Lubbock demonstrates the highest single maxima of tornado days.

That being said, 2006 could be the year that no tornadoes appear on the caprock, or it could be the year they all show up in April or June. Or it could be snowing the last week of May. Who knows.

Again, I like Dan's idea best: pick your vacation time as late as possible to have some model guidance helping with your choice.

 

[Doren Berge]

I am favorable to all of may and the first half of june.

I would agree. If for no other reason than the extended daylight.

Every year is different of course. If you have the luxury of short notice vacationing that's one thing. Just go when the models indicate. But if you have to plan your trip in advance, late May - early June is usually a good way to hedge your bets. Activity is often farther north (less traffic), and you have visibility as late as 9:30 - 10 pm depending on time zone.

I also have to agree with Jay. Memorial Day weekend. You never know, but it seems there is usually some fun to be had somewhere.

db