Tropical Low to form in the Gulf next week?

[Stuart Robinson]

I am not joking !!

Reading the models the signature for a tropical depression to form in the GOM is strong (read REALLY strong). Upper air shear is weak and the SST will support one.

If in dought Check the various hurricane models (UKMO, ECWMF, GFDL) etc they ALL form a depression / tropical storm over the GOM

As an aside - This is the GOM low that has plagued the GFS forecasts for a number of runs giving North East flow and toasting any true gulf moisture arriving back into the plains.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I was noticing that too. The circulation seems broad but persistent for many days.

 

[Ed Schoenborn]

This cane tracking season is getting active fast. Not only do we have the low in the GOM , Jeff Masters reports that a cut off low east of Bermuda may spin for awhile before developing a warm core and becoming ST Ana. In addition to these two lows the first wave of the season has just come off the african coast. Even if none of these develop they should keep us hardcore cane trackers enjoyably busy. Ed

 

[MClarkson]

Starting to get interested. Let the season begin! Even if it doesnt properly develop it should be a wet week for parts of Florida

 

[J Kinkaid]

Starting to get interested. Let the season begin! Even if it doesnt properly develop it should be a wet week for parts of Florida

I realize that everybody is expecting some much needed rain from this system in Florida but lets think back to 2007 When Sub Tropical Storm Andrea formed and caused some of the worst fires that the state of Florida as ever seen. It's nice to see everybody again and I hope that you have a safe 2009 cane season James n Mobile,AL

 

[Mark Sudduth]

Look out, El Nino is coming and these sub-tropical deals, upper lows forming in to storms, etc. are probalby all we will see sans the outside chance of a few tropical waves developing later in the season. It really looks like one of the least active seasons in recent memory coming up. Time will tell.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Look out, El Nino is coming and these sub-tropical deals, upper lows forming in to storms, etc ... It really looks like one of the least active seasons in recent memory coming up. Time will tell.

So I guess after this ridge in the Plains we are all suffering under is a sign that we won't get much hurricane chasing in?

LOL ... What a dissapointing and teasing year '09

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Intersting... the area of disturbance has been asigned an Invest 90L as of now...

Also the UKMO (great tropical model) has picked up on the distubance as well.


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.05.2009

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 26.2N 79.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.05.2009 26.2N 79.5W WEAK
00UTC 20.05.2009 27.3N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.05.2009 27.6N 83.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.05.2009 27.6N 87.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.05.2009 27.7N 87.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.05.2009 28.2N 88.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.05.2009 29.1N 89.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.05.2009 29.8N 89.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.05.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

 

[J Kinkaid]

We will soon start seeing some of the tropical models being run like the GFDL and the HWRF


UKMET

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Official word from NHC has this system absorbed in an unusually far-south frontal system and issued the last special tropical statements on it.

Now you guys all thought we were gonna get an "alternate" tropical break from the death ridge in the plains, ey?

 

[Brett Adair]

Good day all,

Official word from NHC has this system absorbed in an unusually far-south frontal system and issued the last special tropical statements on it.

Now you guys all thought we were gonna get an "alternate" tropical break from the death ridge in the plains, ey?

I would continue to watch it anyway. I believe that the ULL may be able to spin down some as it sits over the Central/Southern Gulf later this week into the weekend. The environment will probably become more favorable into the Gulf as shear begins to relax during that time.