Royce Sheibal
EF3
In case you've been under a rock for the last week, Invest 99L turned into TD 9 (only after TD 8 got stolen by a weak hybrid-tropical spin-up off of NC). TD 9 is currently re-basing itself beneath a large cloud base and finally establishing some solid convection around the center. It should be Hermine by Wednesday (as the pressures already indicate it should be, however it's massive wind field has reduced its wind speed).
Aside from the impacts of Hermine likely on Florida, then up the east coast (some models show a Sandy-curve into New England), how active is the rest of the season going to be?
GFS and others are consistent in showing a strong wave now over W Africa turning into a true Cape-Verde storm. I've seen different runs aim it from the central Gulf coast, to plowing into Miami, to running up the east coast and Getting Sandy'ed, or just barely brushing Cape Cod as a solid Cat 2 in the last run. It's a long way away, but the odds say that if we get formation over the Cape Verde's, and that solid Bermuda high builds in, storms are nearly required to make landfall into the US. Keep in mind the MJO is currently in a negative (kills convection) phase. It is likely to go positive within the next 1-2 weeks giving anything over the Atlantic a shot in the arm.
So...Lets take betting odds, shall we?
Odds of Hurricane Landfall in US this season: 9/10
Odds of Hurricane Landfall in Florida this season: 5/10
Odds of Major Hurricane Landfall in US this season: 3/10
Odds of Major Hurricane Landfall in Florida this season: 1/10
Odds my trip to Miami in Late September gets Cancelled due to tropical weather: 1/10
Odds Jim Cantore does something crazy on air: 10/10
Thoughts?
Aside from the impacts of Hermine likely on Florida, then up the east coast (some models show a Sandy-curve into New England), how active is the rest of the season going to be?
GFS and others are consistent in showing a strong wave now over W Africa turning into a true Cape-Verde storm. I've seen different runs aim it from the central Gulf coast, to plowing into Miami, to running up the east coast and Getting Sandy'ed, or just barely brushing Cape Cod as a solid Cat 2 in the last run. It's a long way away, but the odds say that if we get formation over the Cape Verde's, and that solid Bermuda high builds in, storms are nearly required to make landfall into the US. Keep in mind the MJO is currently in a negative (kills convection) phase. It is likely to go positive within the next 1-2 weeks giving anything over the Atlantic a shot in the arm.
So...Lets take betting odds, shall we?
Odds of Hurricane Landfall in US this season: 9/10
Odds of Hurricane Landfall in Florida this season: 5/10
Odds of Major Hurricane Landfall in US this season: 3/10
Odds of Major Hurricane Landfall in Florida this season: 1/10
Odds my trip to Miami in Late September gets Cancelled due to tropical weather: 1/10
Odds Jim Cantore does something crazy on air: 10/10
Thoughts?
