Tornado Season 2011

[Joshua T. Clark]

To All,

What is the running trend for severe thunderstorm/tornado prospects in the Central to Southern Plains (i.e. Oklahoma) for the first two weeks of March. I know that late February into March is typically begins a period of transition for the longwave pattern. Being a period of transition I know that the possiblity of some significant early season outbreaks are very possible. The first two weeks of March is the only time this year that I would be able to chase. I am tranferring to Fleet Weather Center in San Diego.

Also, I would like to be able to have some data while I chase and who has the most cost effective and reliable pre-paid mobile broadband and how do I bring GPS information into GRLevel3.

 

[rdale]

There are many threads on datacards, GPS, and GR3 in the equipment section.

I'm not sure what you are looking for though regarding the trends?

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I think this is the time of year when many people *start* glancing out into the long range. I know I have been! I'm as anxious to get out there as anyone, but at this point I don't think you can really tell. One thing to pay attention to aside from the pattern would be the drought conditions across the southern plains. The latest drought monitor was still pretty ugly in the southern plains (http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_south.htm), but that data wasn't taken since the recent snowstorms. Hopefully when the update comes out Thursday, it's a prettier picture. If drought conditions don't improve, we could have some issues getting good moisture return up into the plains. While this wouldn't eliminate the season, it sure wouldn't help, and it would make good moisture even more difficult to get in the early season.

Patrick Marsh had a fantastic post on the PNA in another thread (http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?26591-What-happened-to-LA-Nina). If you read what he said, you'll see some very interesting things that make sense with what has been observed lately. The PNA is also forecast to dive negative soon (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif) and is actually already in the process of doing so. This, combined with several long range models showing a large trough setting up in ~10 days, is starting to get my attention in thinking that we may have a decent southern plains chase before the month is over. I should add that I'm really just referring to the next 2 weeks or so with this. Beyond that, I don't believe it's possible to accurately forecast the kind of pattern we'll be in. If it was, you wouldn't have seen so many people panicking after a slow start to 2010!

 

[Verne Carlson]

You *may* get one chase day in early March but it's not likely. I kind of see it like this year to year:

Month Chase Days
Feb <1
March 1
April 3
May >10
June 5
July 2

 

[Jacob Ferden]

There's nothing to really be gained from trying to prognosticate way out into the season, IMO. Patterns, droughts, etc. only mean so much. All it might take to make or break a season might be an outflow boundary setting up just right on a given day. I just try to be ready for each system that comes in and forecast and chase accordingly.

 

[jamesmseitz]

Well it is always a crap shoot but GFS has things warming up at the end of Feb..... So that will help.... As for data I have a Verizon Mifi card and it did great last year for data..... plus you can suspend it when you are not using it..... that with a Lap Top...... you should be good...... Good luck. Also if you need help send me a message..... I could help a bit with Now Casting..... March can be tough..... storm speeds are usually cruising

 

[Bill Tabor]

Monthly tornado probability 1980 - 1994:
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/threatdays/monthanim.html

 

[Rob H]

Monthly tornado probability 1980 - 1994:
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/threatdays/monthanim.html

I get the Palmer Divide and Caprock/dryline setups in TX/OK - but what's causing that secondary max in May for SE NE? I'm not aware of any terrain features of synoptic trends that would pinpoint that area, but it sure likes to get hit by storms based on that image.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Out of the nine year's I've chased, I've seen tornadoes and/or a Tornadic storm 6/9 years before March 10. However, I don't recall chasing more than two or three times max before then in any year. The other three years took until late March before anything really showed up. Oklahoma/The Plains are a literal crapshoot in March in the sense you could have a major Winter Storm or Major Tornado Outbreak or anything in between.

 

[JF Massicotte]

Monthly tornado probability 1980 - 1994:
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/threatdays/monthanim.html

This map is wrong: it puts way too much tornado probs in Iowa...