Thoughts on first few weeks in May

[Mark Farnik]

As long as we get another tornado outbreak in eastern CO in May (ala May 17, 2000 except without the low visibility rainwrapped tornadoes associated with HP supercells moving west/southwest around a deepening low pressure center; I'm not kidding, it was insane, 23 tornadoes touched down, one of which was an F2 that dropped right on top of my farm!), I'll be quite happy. Or if I can't have that, I hope that there is a real good outbreak the last week of May in western KS/NE. Until I get out of school, if there is some good storms locally I'll do some after school chasing. I get out of school on Tuesday, May 23rd, so I have the whole rest of that week except for Saturday the 27th off, because the school band has to play for graduation. I play the baritone and I have the main part of good old Pomp 'n' Circumstance, plus I have a lot of graduation parties to go to so there better not be an outbreak on the 27th or I'll tear my hair out! :angry:
Then I have until August 18th to chase whenever/wherever I want. I have a feeling this will be a good chase season and can't wait for summer! Only three more weeks...
My feelings aside, I have a feeling we'll see some alright severe wx potential next week in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe for KS and OK. But I'd keep a close eye on the trough that's supposed to arrive in the Plains around the 8th/9th... We might have a potentially large and nasty outbreak from that system if all the right ingredients come together.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Just keeping this topic near the top of the list in case anyone has a response

 

[Stan Rose]

Well, i head out tomorrow and should be out til the 14th or so, and my only thoughts now are that im overjoyed that i dont see a huge ridge like the one that wiped out my end of May chase last year! :angry:
In the short term, much uncertainty about the boundaries in TX next few days, then even more uncertainty.
As long as i see that 160+ kt jet in the Pacific, it gives me hope, but models still struggling with the cutoff off CA this weekend and its impact on the overall flow. I head south tomorrow afternoon, probably initially toward LBB and take it from there. See yall on the road!