Anyone have any good links?
The WCM page at the SPC site (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data) is your friend.
Anyone have any good links?
And your point? That video shows absolutely no facts. Just makes a very broad generalized statement. Unfortunately I can't read the article they reference due to not being a paying member of the website it is located on. Here are a few quotes I took from the little bit I was able to read.
"However, limitations12 of the severe thunderstorm observational record, combined with large year-to-year variability12, 13, have made it difficult to demonstrate an ENSO influence during the peak spring season."
This should tell you all you need to know.
We show that fewer tornadoes and hail events occur over the central US during El Niño and conversely more occur during La Niña conditions.
Okay, we already know that. No one is saying that El Nino years are going to produce more tornadoes than La Nina years. We are saying that El Nino years can still produce above average numbers of tornadoes with large outbreaks. The little bit of this article I was able to read doesn't have any facts to prove otherwise. Keep trying Calvin.
The graphics show that moderate to strong El Niño's suppress tornado activity in some of the most favored areas the most, while only Florida and South Georgia along with the west coast increase.
Seems like it is playing out perfectly even with a weak El Niño right now.
Couldn't have said it better myself, Dan. It makes me wince a little to see this kind of pattern -- persistent WSW flow and low-amplitude western troughing -- set in for an extended period in March or April. As you said, the same pattern in late May or June could be a chaser bonanza. This early in the season, though, you're likely to see lots of Colorado lee cyclones with impressive kinematics that go to waste due to capping. Indeed, that's exactly what the medium-range models have been showing starting around mid-week and continuing into the weekend. Until the polar vortex that's been quasistationary over Hudson Bay since January breaks down, it may be difficult to get the kind of higher-amplitude western troughing that leads to big early-season setups.So far I'm not impressed with the "chaseable" tornado potential in any of the upcoming systems. Sure, we've finally got some nice flow over the Plains/Midwest, but the troughing is positively tilted and cold-fronty. I won't complain, because any storms here are welcome - but I don't see anything that has me prepping for a Plains trip yet. If this type of flow was over the Plains in May, well - that would be a different story.