Thoughts about the upcoming 2015 chase season

And your point? That video shows absolutely no facts. Just makes a very broad generalized statement. Unfortunately I can't read the article they reference due to not being a paying member of the website it is located on. Here are a few quotes I took from the little bit I was able to read.

"However, limitations12 of the severe thunderstorm observational record, combined with large year-to-year variability12, 13, have made it difficult to demonstrate an ENSO influence during the peak spring season."

This should tell you all you need to know.

We show that fewer tornadoes and hail events occur over the central US during El Niño and conversely more occur during La Niña conditions.

Okay, we already know that. No one is saying that El Nino years are going to produce more tornadoes than La Nina years. We are saying that El Nino years can still produce above average numbers of tornadoes with large outbreaks. The little bit of this article I was able to read doesn't have any facts to prove otherwise. Keep trying Calvin.

The graphics show that moderate to strong El Niño's suppress tornado activity in some of the most favored areas the most, while only Florida and South Georgia along with the west coast increase.

Seems like it is playing out perfectly even with a weak El Niño right now.
 
The graphics show that moderate to strong El Niño's suppress tornado activity in some of the most favored areas the most, while only Florida and South Georgia along with the west coast increase.

Seems like it is playing out perfectly even with a weak El Niño right now.

Come talk to me in a few months. Its not even April yet :p
 
Looks like we finally hit the first actual "event" of the season and man was it weird. Also looks like another trough is progged to come through about a week from now so might be another setup in the works.
 
If this holds up, it could make for an interesting weekend (next weekend)
gfsUS_500_spd_219.gif
 
Another point though, models seem to be agreeing more on the pacific ridge breaking down, almost Zonal flow after this coming week. It would be a nice change of pace.
 
12Z GFS brings back some western troughing and broad SW flow at 500MB across the Plains/Midwest for the 6th-8th timeframe. What says the Euro?
 
6Z had all but obliterated previous joy, but 12Z certainly signals an overall pattern change beyond that 200 hr that has been advertized for the last several days. GFS gives plenty of reasons to think that April will be active.
 
So far I'm not impressed with the "chaseable" tornado potential in any of the upcoming systems. Sure, we've finally got some nice flow over the Plains/Midwest, but the troughing is positively tilted and cold-fronty. I won't complain, because any storms here are welcome - but I don't see anything that has me prepping for a Plains trip yet. If this type of flow was over the Plains in May, well - that would be a different story.
 
So far I'm not impressed with the "chaseable" tornado potential in any of the upcoming systems. Sure, we've finally got some nice flow over the Plains/Midwest, but the troughing is positively tilted and cold-fronty. I won't complain, because any storms here are welcome - but I don't see anything that has me prepping for a Plains trip yet. If this type of flow was over the Plains in May, well - that would be a different story.
Couldn't have said it better myself, Dan. It makes me wince a little to see this kind of pattern -- persistent WSW flow and low-amplitude western troughing -- set in for an extended period in March or April. As you said, the same pattern in late May or June could be a chaser bonanza. This early in the season, though, you're likely to see lots of Colorado lee cyclones with impressive kinematics that go to waste due to capping. Indeed, that's exactly what the medium-range models have been showing starting around mid-week and continuing into the weekend. Until the polar vortex that's been quasistationary over Hudson Bay since January breaks down, it may be difficult to get the kind of higher-amplitude western troughing that leads to big early-season setups.

I don't want to complain too much, since it's at least an improvement over anomalous west coast ridging. But if we're not likely to get many chaseable storms anyway, I'd rather see a cutoff low or some other pattern providing extensive southern Plains drought relief before we head into the heart of the season.

If nothing else, a weeklong period of near-zonal flow with embedded shortwaves should draw plenty of moisture into the Gulf Coast states, giving us a chance for something bigger if we're fortunate enough to see a "real" trough around April 8-12. The 29/12z ECMWF hints this could happen.
 
Seems almost analogous to how last week played out. Not enough to go out on unless you're pretty close to the setup. This week's capping concerns don't trouble me too terribly much considering the furthest I'd be from Norman is roughly three hours, but these kind of weak amplitude trough setups with questionable timing make the early season tricky as hell, especially when you're pulling 17C H85 temps in early April.
 
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