Thoughts about the upcoming 2015 chase season

[Jason Boggs]

Since it's January, chase season is just around the corner. I'll be honest, I'm not sure what to think about 2015. As far as moisture, we haven't really had that much around the TX Panhandle area. I know it's just speculation talking about the upcoming season right now, but what are your thoughts or concerns going into the chase season?

 

[Shane Adams]

Thoughts: There will be storms and tornadoes to be had in 2015.
Concerns: I just hope I'm there for some of them.

 

[Jason Boggs]

^------Summed up pretty well, and I agree. I haven't seen a good tornado in a couple of years, so I'm due!

 

[James Gustina]

I think it was Marcus who brought up rainfall in northern Mexico on the podcast this past Sunday. The biggest thing right now is easing the overall effects of that drought in northern Mexico (Chihuahua) which is also the source region for the EML along the dryline come spring on the Plains. I've got no idea what this season is gonna be but I'd venture we probably won't have the same moisture and trough timing issues we had this previous season. Then again, who knows.

 

[Jeff Duda]

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

And I was recently thinking of starting this thread...as a joke.

There's always room for speculation, but there's very little predictability for a tornado season at this forecast length. The only possible things you can keep watch on are low-frequency seasonal and climatic oscillations like PNA, PDO, AO, NAO, AAO, ENSO, and MJO, along with deep soil moisture and heat analyses (which generally aren't available).

 

[Jason Boggs]

Yeah Jeff....I was bored and I knew this thread would be started at some point, so I decided to get it going!

 

[Mike Marz]

I obviously hope for an active season. It would be nice to get back to the more classic and active dryline setups that were, for the most part, non existent last year. I think Nebraska could use a break. I am always concerned that there will be big outbreak days too far east that tempt me to chase solo in areas that I have been told are pretty difficult terrain. And finally, I just hope gas stays anywhere near where it is at now. Even if it went up some, it is still much cheaper than recent seasons.

 

[Marc R. O'Leary]

FWIW, I just want spring to get here, for many reasons including storms. If I catch a tornado, awesome, but I know I'll have dozens of nights of gorgeous one of a kind electricity coming from the skies.

Oh, and I hate winter in general. Always have.

 

[samuel stone]

this -10 degree wind chill stuff and minimal sunshine is getting old. My happiness has always been sunshine dependent. winter sucks. anyways.. due to a busy schedule and a lackluster season I was only able to chase on May 11 (I believe it was) in south central nebraska and missed the tornadoes due to a few wrong turns right before intercept. so I certainly hope this season is different. lets get some big snow storms to help out the soil moisture on the southern plains

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Rather than second guessing the teleconnections and ENSO (which are all pretty neutral right now) I think some of the pattern can be guessed from the official CPC seasonal predictions. Though of course the patterns on any given day can't be predicted, this is definitely a textbook example of overall baroclinicity (energy generated from temperature contrast) in the US being on the weak side and accompanied by a somewhat weaker jet stream. Consider the opposite scenario: cold anomaly west & north, which would be fast flow, an active storm track from the Pacific, and probably lots of progressive cold air outbreaks, definitely the things that shut down chasing in April & May (though the pattern can end up being decent in June). This is the one noteworthy signal I can see, and in that regard I think this is probably a good omen for chase weather. The only downside I can see is the moisture return may be on the weak side, especially early in the season.

Of course, the usual caveats about this this all being just an educated guessing game.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Only thing I'm seeing this winter vs. last winter is that we haven't had that persistent E'rn Trough pattern with northerly flow through the Plains like most of last winter. That pattern absolutely decimated the early season last year, sending cool air/arctic fronts south through the Gulf through March and I think even into April. This year the pattern has tended to stay a bit more 'classic', and there's no signs of that changing too much in the immediate term. So we'll see, things could change quickly against chasing between now and Late March/Early April, it's really anyone's guess. But at least at this point, there's nothing saying we should be all that worried about a 2014 repeat...yet.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Based upon moisture alone this fall and winter, I'm not overly hopeful on a big southern plains season. I thought we were going to come out of the drought a bit after all the rainfall in late summer/early fall especially in New Mexico and the eastern Texas panhandle.

Since then, it seems to be below normal again for rain fall. You can't get out of a drought when you still have below average rainfall.

 

[calvinkaskey]

Take opportunities you have

Past several years have been very bare. Dec and this January have been decently active in the southeast. I don't think El-Nino or neutral years favor as much tornadic activity as La Nina does, ie back in 2011. I'd recommend chasing early. There was an outbreak last year in Feb and another in late April.

 

[Shane Adams]

Past several years have been very bare. Dec and this January have been decently active in the southeast. I don't think El-Nino or neutral years favor as much tornadic activity as La Nina does, ie back in 2011. I'd recommend chasing early. There was an outbreak last year in Feb and another in late April.

And an even better three-day period in mid-June.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I think we'll see another year like the last few. A slow start like the last few seasons, with another short, highly active period that will make the years for those who are fortunate enough to be out for it, leaving everyone else ready to enter the looney bin. Of course no matter there will always be random events scattered throughout the country. To me it just seems we can't break the pattern of extreme amplitude in the overall jet pattern. Everything has been blocky and slow moving, driving more extremes...so I expect fewer events, but more significant ones. Quality over Quantity (like 2013)

Regardless, I am prepared for an active season. The best way to beat a slow season is to put yourself in better position to chase the next one, and thats what I basically did during last year.