the end of the atlantic basin hurricane season?

[Terry Tyler]

i notice there is an unhealty pattern for tropical systems...

a high-pressure zone in the south, which is blocking systems from entering into the gulf...and, there is excessive wind-shear out there too...

its also october, and the sst's are starting to come down a notch...

just looking at the patterns, is it safe to say that 2007 is done for as far as any major tropical development is concerned?

 

[Brett Adair]

La Nina... Shear is about to increase with the troughs coming further south. Kiss it goodbye in the near future.

 

[cdcollura]

This post (see below...)

La Nina... Shear is about to increase with the troughs coming further south. Kiss it goodbye in the near future.

Is the most realistic and accurate one I have seen all year (2007).

As for chasing a tropical cyclone in this hemisphere in THIS year ... It's over, deal with it.

Thanks-A-Men.

 

[Terry Tyler]

This post (see below...)



Is the most realistic and accurate one I have seen all year (2007).

As for chasing a tropical cyclone in this hemisphere in THIS year ... It's over, deal with it.

Thanks-A-Men.

thanks for putting the nails in the coffin, chris and brett...

thats just what i was thinking as well

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I'm not giving up yet. Call me crazy. Maybe I'm in denial. I agree the pattern doesn't look so hot right this moment, but so much spectacular October action has happened in the last twenty years-- some of it quite late in the month. And the great Tampa Bay 'cane of 1921 made landfall on 25 Oct.

I traditionally give up around Halloween-- so for now, I'll remain hopeful.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

NEVER write it off before the end of November! History tells us all that.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

When it is Oct. 9th. and nothing is threatening the US at the moment, it is always a good bet that there will not be a major hurricane hitting the USA the rest of the "season."

Making these end of season "forecasts" at this point in a season is like predicting snow in Montana in May. It usually happens, but not always.

Agreed!

Referring to a common gale in cold temperatures as a "tropical storm equivalent" sounds like those guys in prison that brag about their voluptuous "girlfriend" that resides in the top bunk. Different strokes for different folks.

Ha ha ha. Agreed. For me, nothing-- not any kind of low-pressure nor'easter this or that-- could ever substitute for a good tropical cyclone with a tightly-wound inner core. I'd rather just sit hungry until next year.

 

[RodgerHeckman]

I'm not giving up yet. Call me crazy. Maybe I'm in denial. I agree the pattern doesn't look so hot right this moment, but so much spectacular October action has happened in the last twenty years-- some of it quite late in the month. And the great Tampa Bay 'cane of 1921 made landfall on 25 Oct.

I traditionally give up around Halloween-- so for now, I'll remain hopeful.

Josh,

I would not give up as well. To help, as I done in the past, I will schedule a vacation in late October to ensure a TC in FL. (Side note: I will probably arrive at my destination the week After a Mod Risk will be issued for that area I am traveling to.)

Actually, there is quite a bit more deep convection and divergence in the deep tropics compared to this time in 2006, especially in the Caribbean. Just based on that among other things, I would not say it's over just yet.

 

[Terry Tyler]

it just looks like the synoptic setup isnt going to change for a couple weeks...

that couple weeks will ride us into november...and by that time, the threat for a hurricane will be long gone...

no doubt there may be a couple invests, or maybe a TD forming with all that storm activity south of that convergence zone...but really, i dont think there is much to look at with that la nina pattern in place...

ofcourse, im not a hurricane expert...just looking at the trends...

 

[cdcollura]

...but really, i dont think there is much to look at with that la nina pattern in place...

LOL, didn't we have this SAME problem (shear) last year due to El Nino?

This year La Nina is here, but obviously, had no effect on "Mr upper-tropospheric scizzor-hands" ;-(

Definitely writing off 2007 right now.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Josh,

I would not give up as well. To help, as I done in the past, I will schedule a vacation in late October to ensure a TC in FL. (Side note: I will probably arrive at my destination the week After a Mod Risk will be issued for that area I am traveling to.)

Actually, there is quite a bit more deep convection and divergence in the deep tropics compared to this time in 2006, especially in the Caribbean. Just based on that among other things, I would not say it's over just yet.

Hey Rodger!

Ha ha ha, I know why you're saying this: weren't you stuck in Vegas during Wilma? I think that would have sent me over the edge! Anyway, please do schedule that trip and get out of town so the rest of us can get some action!

The Caribbean looks quite active this morning. There's a huge, fiery blob of convection near Jamaica-- that's persisted since yesterday-- and also, there's that big wave just crossing the Lesser Antilles now. Stuff to watch!

 

[Tampa Dave]

Sub-tropical air retreating south

Over the past few days dry air has anchored itself over west-central FLA. And for the first time in many months the overnight lows were below 70 in Tampa. I think it's fairly safe to say that we are done for the yr for tropical systems. Even if something were to spin up from the Caribbean & even if it were to drift north (nearly all systems have moved west or NW this season), the shearing would tear the cloud tops to shreads. So our attention should now be redirected to the Central Plains as severe weather patterns return to our neck of the woods in the southeast.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Over the past few days dry air has anchored itself over west-central FLA. And for the first time in many months the overnight lows were below 70 in Tampa. I think it's fairly safe to say that we are done for the yr for tropical systems. Even if something were to spin up from the Caribbean & even if it were to drift north (nearly all systems have moved west or NW this season), the shearing would tear the cloud tops to shreads. So our attention should now be redirected to the Central Plains as severe weather patterns return to our neck of the woods in the southeast.

Interesting. That makes sense-- and perhaps the risk of USA landfalls has decreased-- but that doesn't end the chase season for me personally, as I'm committed to going anywhere in Mexico and Belize-- and maybe other Central American nations as well-- to catch a good cyclone. The deep tropics are still good.

P.S. My corporate accountant's husband is from Honduras, and she occasionally goes there. She strongly recommends against traveling there unassisted by a local-- says it's quite dangerous for an American. So I suppose Honduras is not on my chase turf.

 

[Jim Leonard]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica] Don't give up too soon, there is a lot of convection across the Caribbean. Also the favorable MJO is beginning to take effect for the first time in many weeks. Im holding out some hope for the next ten days after that I think its curtains for this year.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/gfs.gif[/FONT]

 

[Josh Morgerman]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica] Don't give up too soon, there is a lot of convection across the Caribbean. Also the favorable MJO is beginning to take effect for the first time in many weeks. Im holding out some hope for the next ten days after that I think its curtains for this year.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/gfs.gif[/FONT]

You tell 'em, Jim! I'm with you-- I think the Caribbean looks very moist and fertile right now.

Here's to keeping hope alive!