Swarm of big quakes across the globe

[Jordan Hartley]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110118...uX2hlYWRsaW5lX2xpc3QEc2xrA21hZ25pdHVkZTc0cQ--

Magnitude 7.4 - SOUTHWESTERN PAKISTAN
2011 January 18 20:23:18 UTC


Magnitude 7.4 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes) Date-Time Tuesday, January 18, 2011 at 20:23:18 UTC Wednesday, January 19, 2011 at 01:23:18 AM at epicenter Location 28.940°N, 63.930°E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program Region SOUTHWESTERN PAKISTAN Distances 55 km (34 miles) W (271°) from Dalbandin, Pakistan 263 km (164 miles) W (269°) from Kalat, Pakistan 301 km (187 miles) ESE (102°) from Zahedan, Iran 793 km (493 miles) NE (41°) from MUSCAT, Oman

Big quake strikes Pakistan. Make that 4 7.0 quakes since the beginning of the year. This is a horrible pace...

***Update***
Magnitude 7.2 - SOUTHWESTERN PAKISTAN
2011 January 18 20:23:26 UTC Depth 84 km (52.2 miles) set by location program

 

[Dennis Dennison]

8 - 5.0 or above quakes yesterday worldwide

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Its been very quite in terms of big quakes across the world for a couple of weeks now with no 6.5 or greater quakes occurring since Jan 18. Which tells me there was something to this latest swarm that we just dont understand yet. I remember at the height of the swarm there were over 300 quakes that had occurred during a 7 day period so it was fairly active. Did want to mention a somewhat large quake occurred just off the west coast near Oregon within the last 24 hrs. Largest earthquake on the west coast for a while now at least.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/usb0001atx.php

 

[Darren Addy]

A 6.5 and a 6.7 at the same location (under the ocean) just 2-1/2 minutes apart. That coulda been a big one if it had been one single shift of the plates!
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/125_5.php

 

[MatthewCarman]

Earthquake swarms have occured in the past. The last time the New Madrid fault in the midwest really went active there was over 200 earthquakes in a 2 year period. Five of the quakes were 8.0 or higher. It is scary tot hink about that happening again.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Magnitude 6.8 - OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
2011 February 11 20:05:31 UTC

Magnitude6.8 Date-Time Friday, February 11, 2011 at 20:05:31 UTC Friday, February 11, 2011 at 05:05:31 PM at epicenter Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones Location 36.479°S, 73.000°W
Depth 28 km (17.4 miles) set by location program Region OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE Distances 45 km (30 miles) N of Concepcion, Bio-Bio, Chile 80 km (50 miles) SW of Cauquenes, Maule, Chile 85 km (55 miles) WNW of Chillan, Bio-Bio, Chile
395 km (245 miles) SSW of SANTIAGO, Region Metropolitana, Chile

So we go a couple of weeks without a big quake and then 3 within 24 hrs hehe funny how this stuff works. Pacific plate is very active right now. (Not that its ever not active that goes without saying of course)

 

[Jordan Hartley]

I think its safe to go ahead and reset this thread after what has occurred in the last 48 hours. The before mentioned swarm was a very steep spike in big quakes across the world over a 30 day period. We then went about a month without a big quake, then we had the Christchurch, New Zealand quake last month and now the big one. There is something going on no one can argue this now. What it is exactly who knows. But if it walks, talks, eats, breaths, and ***** like a duck well then its a duck.

Edit: I guess there were a few other big quakes not mentioned above. Simply put you look at the numbers and it all lead to this. Sadly this could be the beginning of big quakes occurring all over the pacific more frequently in the coming months. After all its already happening. And you know this swarm goes back a lot further than a couple of months. This is 2 8.8 or greater earthquakes on opposite ends of the pacific plate within 13 months of each other.

Take a look at the pace were on right now. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2011/

 

[Scott Weberpal]

There is something going on no one can argue this now. What it is exactly who knows.

Actually, we do know what it is. Plates are moving like they have been since they were created.

In 2010 there were 21 7.0-7.9 earthquakes, the average is 18; only 3 more than normal. The 10 years prior to 2010 were ALL below normal - things have a way of averaging out.

This isn't unprecedented; in 1970 and 1971 there were 20 and 19 major earthquakes respectively - it looks like we're in another similar period.

From the USGS:

The NEIC now locates about 12,000 to 14,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes. According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 18 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year. However, let's take a look at what has happened in the past 32 years, from 1969 through 2001, so far. Our records show that 1992, and 1995-1997 were the only years that we have reached or exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes since 1971. In 1970 and in 1971 we had 20 and 19 major earthquakes, respectively, but in other years the total was in many cases well below the 18 per year which we may expect based on the long-term average.

So according to the USGS, we've been below average for quite some time - the 21 7.0-7.9 earthquakes in 2010 was actually pretty close to the long-term average.

Also of interest:

Earthquake clustering and human psychology. While the average number of large earthquakes per year is fairly constant, earthquakes occur in clusters. This is predicted by various statistical models, and does not imply that earthquakes that are distant in location, but close in time, are causally related. But when such clusters occur, especially when they are widely reported in the media, they are noticed. However, during the equally anomalous periods during which no destructive earthquakes occur, no one deems this as remarkable.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/faq/?categoryID=6&faqID=110

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Also of interest:

Earthquake clustering and human psychology. While the average number of large earthquakes per year is fairly constant, earthquakes occur in clusters. This is predicted by various statistical models, and does not imply that earthquakes that are distant in location, but close in time, are causally related. But when such clusters occur, especially when they are widely reported in the media, they are noticed. However, during the equally anomalous periods during which no destructive earthquakes occur, no one deems this as remarkable.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/faq/?categoryID=6&faqID=110

Excellent point, Scott.

Imagine throwing 20 darts at a dart board. Let's just suppose we could make each throw "random" (say, someone is extremely terrible at darts). We should expect that some darts will be spaced relatively close to each other, while other darts will be more isolated. In completely random systems (EQs are not, but let's stick entirely with random statistics) with limited sample sizes, one should expect heterogeneity that results in clustering, particularly when the sample size is small. It does seem feasible, from a physical standpoint, that some EQs may cluster (in time or space) as a result of the interconnectedness of the fault and plate systems. Strong EQs happen, supervolcanoes happen, and EF5 tornadoes happen.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Actually, we do know what it is. Plates are moving like they have been since they were created.

In 2010 there were 21 7.0-7.9 earthquakes, the average is 18; only 3 more than normal. The 10 years prior to 2010 were ALL below normal - things have a way of averaging out.

This isn't unprecedented; in 1970 and 1971 there were 20 and 19 major earthquakes respectively - it looks like we're in another similar period.

From the USGS:

The NEIC now locates about 12,000 to 14,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes. According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 18 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year. However, let's take a look at what has happened in the past 32 years, from 1969 through 2001, so far. Our records show that 1992, and 1995-1997 were the only years that we have reached or exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes since 1971. In 1970 and in 1971 we had 20 and 19 major earthquakes, respectively, but in other years the total was in many cases well below the 18 per year which we may expect based on the long-term average.

So according to the USGS, we've been below average for quite some time - the 21 7.0-7.9 earthquakes in 2010 was actually pretty close to the long-term average.

Also of interest:

Earthquake clustering and human psychology. While the average number of large earthquakes per year is fairly constant, earthquakes occur in clusters. This is predicted by various statistical models, and does not imply that earthquakes that are distant in location, but close in time, are causally related. But when such clusters occur, especially when they are widely reported in the media, they are noticed. However, during the equally anomalous periods during which no destructive earthquakes occur, no one deems this as remarkable.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/faq/?categoryID=6&faqID=110

Say what? Also of interest: The normalcy bias refers to a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of the government to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred that it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

One location in Japan just moved 8 feet from its previous location. The earth's axis has shifted by 4" in the last 48 hrs. The west coast is directly affected by the Pacific plate and its activity. Its where all of this activity is occurring. This same thing could happen along the west coast of North America. Its one thing to try to downplay topics such as this when its not happening but things are going on and I feel the need to share whats going on. These big quakes are occurring all over the pacific except along the west coast of Central and North America. Its only a matter of time before it happens alot closer to home. Beings that the USGS cant predict earthquakes I find it interesting your willing to just throw your lot in with an observation-only based government funded agency that is as good at predicting and forecasting seismic activity as Charlie Sheen is trying to convince the world hes not on drugs and the rest of the world is crazy

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Imagine throwing 20 darts at a dart board. Let's just suppose we could make each throw "random" (say, someone is extremely terrible at darts). We should expect that some darts will be spaced relatively close to each other, while other darts will be more isolated. In completely random systems (EQs are not, but let's stick entirely with random statistics) with limited sample sizes, one should expect heterogeneity that results in clustering, particularly when the sample size is small. It does seem feasible, from a physical standpoint, that some EQs may cluster (in time or space) as a result of the interconnectedness of the fault and plate systems. Strong EQs happen, supervolcanoes happen, and EF5 tornadoes happen.

Cant argue with that Jeff and you actually make my point for me. These things happen randomly. One thing about "randomness" is this thing called the law of averages and we could be next. This could happen tomorrow, a year from, a 100 years from now im not here to debate it. But a big one just happened and this is why im reseting the thread.

One theory has been floating around out there for a long time now that says seismic activity is somewhat related to the Sun's affect on Earth's magnetic fields kinda of like wind sheer is just one of many things you need to come together for a good setup. There just happened to be activity recently on the Sun that did impact Earth and its magnetic field not just once but twice in the last couple of weeks, one just happened to be the largest solar flare in 4 years. Although leading scientist do not support the theory due to lack of scientific evidence and statistics that just dont show the two lining up together, I wonder if the effects are more long-term rather than short term like a building up affect. I know that if you look at earthquake data and compare it with a solar cycle the two do actually start to line up when it comes to larger quakes. Yes activity is balancing itself out when it comes to averages over a 10,25,50 year time period. Yet the same science that sets the standard on how we are to view the current events today in relation to the past is not the same science that was around 60 years ago. Technology has changed a lot of things. All we can do beyond 60 years is point to a quake and say this is when it happened, this is what it did. Today scientist are able to determine the most minute of details giving us almost a picture perfect view of the eq like we have never seen before. IMO, 50 years isnt a long enough period to rule out that the Sun has no affect on seismic activity at all. Its easier to say its not there rather than have to prove that it is.

My point exaclty hehe. http://spaceweather.com/

COINCIDENCES: Many readers have asked if this week's terrible earthquake in Japan was connected to the contemporaneous geomagnetic storms of March 10th and 11th. In short, no. There is no known, credible evidence of solar activity triggering earthquakes. Moreover, in the historical record, there are thousands of examples of geomagnetic storms without earthquakes, and similar numbers of earthquakes without geomagnetic storms. The two phenomena are not linked.

 

[Darren Addy]

In 2010 there were 21 7.0-7.9 earthquakes, the average is 18; only 3 more than normal.

The figure I found was an average of 15. But you also have to count the average earthquakes that are larger (if you are counting everything mag. 7 or larger). So 1 ave. mag 8 or greater (annually) makes a total of 16.

We are 72 days into 2011 and the needle has hit over mag 7 seven times already.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Magnitude 6.8 - OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
2011 February 11 20:05:31 UTC

So we go a couple of weeks without a big quake and then 3 within 24 hrs hehe funny how this stuff works. Pacific plate is very active right now. (Not that its ever not active that goes without saying of course)

This is 2 8.8 or greater earthquakes on opposite ends of the pacific plate within 13 months of each other.

I can understand the confusion given the location of Chile, however, Chile does not border the Pacific plate. At Chile, the Nazca plate subducts under the South American plate. The Pacific plate is not involved with the earthquakes in Chile.

The figure I found was an average of 15.

I based "18" off of this from the USGS - I guess someone in their stats department needs to sort this out, lol:

According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 18 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/faq/?categoryID=6&faqID=110

 

[J Allen]

Jordan,
If we got worried about these things then nobody in the world would get anything done...Earthquakes, Volcanics, Weather, Astronomic events, Pandemics...theres always something that could potentially wipe us out and you can't get hung up on it. The state of normalcy also has a factor referred to as the "living memory" phenomena, where a disaster is only recalled and prepared for as long as the human memory of the event remains. At the point of an events occurence its fresh in everyones minds, people take action, fund research, set up disaster management etc. Then people get edgy every time a smaller event happens, but gradually the devastating event that caused the action fades from memory, until the next major event comes along and "surprises" people disrupting them from normalcy. We see it time and time again in the Australian bushfire record...1939 Black Friday, 1967 Black Tuesday, 1983 Ash Wednesday, 2009 Black Saturday fires. All of these fires killed more than all the other events in the intervening period...and could be considered to be like an 8 plus magnitude earthquake, and yet despite all the supposed improvements to management the same thing happens, and more people die. The stupid thing about the living memory? The number of people killed by the SW change that is always associated with bushfire conditions, people know right after the event and forget over time...until it happens again.

Yes we know this quake released enough energy to power the world at current levels for 80 years (hint if anyone is smart enough work out a way to utilise that energy), but lets take a second here. Tectonic plates move at cms per year, gradually building stress until such time as there is an explosive release in the form of an earthquake. The problem? We can't predict them with any degree of certainty as the stresses that build are over vast areas which we can't actually monitor. This quake alone moved some 500 miles of crust over 200 miles of width. Thats one heck of a movement (evidenced by the change to the earths axis). One solution is we could relocate all the cities at risk (this includes the US west coast, all of Japan, most of the western pacific subduction zones, and the South American areas near the Andes), but realistically? It costs more to prevent the impact than for people to rebuild, and do some of the preparation necessary. There is going to be an Earthquake in Wellington for sure at some stage in the next 20-50 years, and I will guarantee you it will go 8+ on the Richter scale. But what are you going to do about it? Its impratical to relocate most of the population of NZ, so you just worry about it when it happens.

Realistically WRT to the Pacific plates I would be more concerned if we were seeing action over the Northern and Eastern margins. ATM there is actually a balance going on along the Northern edge of the Australian/Pacific margin. It started with the 2004 Boxing Day Quake, and is currently round to the mid Pacific islands around Tonga, and will eventually get down to NZ and probably trigger the megathrust event near Wellington (which lies astride the main fault plane). It will happen along the San Francisco fault, but as we have seen for Christchurch these things don't follow a particular timeline, and don't always follow known faults, much easier to worry when the time comes and just breathe and get on with life.

Note: Apologies for long and rambling post.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Im a little shocked im getting negative feedback on this one. There are nuclear power plants here in the US that are based upon the designs like the ones experiencing problems in Japan that were built on fault lines that have been found. If this happens on such a large scale as we have just seen here its DOOMSDAY for "us" folks. Indian Point here in the United States has 20 million people near its facility. This plant was built very near a fault with a 7.0 risk factor. Try evacuating that many people in a short amount of time and it results in grid lock. Truly you guys are hung up on this anti-doomsday thing and thats not what im here to talk about at all. Its not the end of the world, but we have counted on it not happening for too long. You guys are banking on that too and thats just not how I live. Better to be prepared then caught with your pants down.