Surprised there has been little talk about this today so I'd comment. I know a few years ago there were some questions regarding if tornado alley had shifted eastward. I know the OKC outbreak is still recent but the area from say Phil Campbell back towards Jackson Miss seem to be a target for violent supercells. Im fascinated with the sheer number of storms many with very nice signatures affecting the same areas over and over. Id love to see a study for maybe the last 10 yrs as the violent outbreaks seem to favor these areas.
Southeast tornado outbreak
- Thread starter brentford
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rdale
EF5
Check the Target area.
No, the alley really doesn't move. It ends up wherever depending on what you use to define the "tornado alley."
Stan Rose
EF5
I'd be cautious with that limb. You can't really come to any conclusions based on a very small number of events. 'Tornado Alley' is not defined by strong or violent tornadoes, but nevertheless, even if you stick with EF-3 or higher tornadoes, the difference between OK and Mississippi or Alabama is really not that huge--on average over the past few decades the latter get about 2 such tornadoes per year, the former 3. So, 'tornado alley' is pretty nebulous, and the number of strong or violent tornadoes is pretty small (about 30-40/yr nationwide) so a couple of events are going to skew your perception. If you haven't been chasing that long, you may not remember the many violent outbreaks that have occurred over the southeast or Midwest--the Superoutbreak comes to mind. You're just seeing more attention given to these outbreaks cause everyone is shooting video of them. About the only thing slightly different about this outbreak is that it typically would occur in March, but everything has been delayed this year due to the overall pattern.
Shane Young
EF1
Worth noting... top 25 deadly tornadoes:
1. 18 Mar 1925 - Tri-State (MO/IL/IN) – 695
2. 06 May 1840 - Natchez MS – 317
3. 27 May 1896 - St. Louis MO – 255
4. 05 Apr 1936 - Tupelo MS – 216
5. 06 Apr 1936 - Gainesville GA – 203
7. 22 May 2011 - Joplin MO – 158
8. 24 Apr 1908 - Amite LA, Purvis MS – 143
15. 23 Jun 1944 - Shinnston WV – 100
16. 18 Apr 1880 - Marshfield MO – 99
17. 01 Jun 1903 - Gainesville GA – 98
17t. 09 May 1927 - Poplar Bluff MO – 98
21. 24 Apr 1908 - Natchez MS – 91
22. 09 Jun 1953 - Worcester MA – 90
23. 20 Apr 1920 - Starkville MS to Waco AL – 88
14 out of 25 of the deadliest tornadoes were east of the classic Plains.
Of course, not sure if Missouri really fits in this list, but it seems more like the southeast than the Plains in terms of surroundings.
And I did yet leave off the Great Lakes, which have some surprisingly east states on the list [Illinois (3), Wisconsin (1), Michigan (1), Ohio (1)].
But regardless, so many southeast cities on here. Certainly the east is more developed, and perhaps less prepared\used to storms, especially a century ago.
But still, perhaps we've just forgotten how common it is to see storms in the southeast (and this list doesn't even include events like the Superoutbreak, the 98 Birmingham tornado, the November 18, 2002 outbreak, and such).
It seemed like last decade, it was Tennessee that was the target of tornadoes constantly (ask Jackson, TN). This decade seems to be back on AL.
But I'm with Stan, we're definitely giving them more attention than we used to.
Of course, we're also having more fatalities than 10 years ago, so there's something more concrete.
But that reality seems like a definite widespread trend... and worth careful inspection into (I'd think it's just a period of "bad luck" more than anything. Could it also be on the public becoming complacent about tornadoes as they've gone from some abstract terrifying danger to something they see on tv every minute? Don't know.) But when an extremely "quiet year" like last year still results in an above average 55 fatalities and we're off to a quick start this year given the tornado count too, it's a question worth nothing, and probably one more alarming to me (though perhaps there's also connecting to which regions are affected... I'd love to see more data).
1. 18 Mar 1925 - Tri-State (MO/IL/IN) – 695
2. 06 May 1840 - Natchez MS – 317
3. 27 May 1896 - St. Louis MO – 255
4. 05 Apr 1936 - Tupelo MS – 216
5. 06 Apr 1936 - Gainesville GA – 203
7. 22 May 2011 - Joplin MO – 158
8. 24 Apr 1908 - Amite LA, Purvis MS – 143
15. 23 Jun 1944 - Shinnston WV – 100
16. 18 Apr 1880 - Marshfield MO – 99
17. 01 Jun 1903 - Gainesville GA – 98
17t. 09 May 1927 - Poplar Bluff MO – 98
21. 24 Apr 1908 - Natchez MS – 91
22. 09 Jun 1953 - Worcester MA – 90
23. 20 Apr 1920 - Starkville MS to Waco AL – 88
14 out of 25 of the deadliest tornadoes were east of the classic Plains.
Of course, not sure if Missouri really fits in this list, but it seems more like the southeast than the Plains in terms of surroundings.
And I did yet leave off the Great Lakes, which have some surprisingly east states on the list [Illinois (3), Wisconsin (1), Michigan (1), Ohio (1)].
But regardless, so many southeast cities on here. Certainly the east is more developed, and perhaps less prepared\used to storms, especially a century ago.
But still, perhaps we've just forgotten how common it is to see storms in the southeast (and this list doesn't even include events like the Superoutbreak, the 98 Birmingham tornado, the November 18, 2002 outbreak, and such).
It seemed like last decade, it was Tennessee that was the target of tornadoes constantly (ask Jackson, TN). This decade seems to be back on AL.
But I'm with Stan, we're definitely giving them more attention than we used to.
Of course, we're also having more fatalities than 10 years ago, so there's something more concrete.
But that reality seems like a definite widespread trend... and worth careful inspection into (I'd think it's just a period of "bad luck" more than anything. Could it also be on the public becoming complacent about tornadoes as they've gone from some abstract terrifying danger to something they see on tv every minute? Don't know.) But when an extremely "quiet year" like last year still results in an above average 55 fatalities and we're off to a quick start this year given the tornado count too, it's a question worth nothing, and probably one more alarming to me (though perhaps there's also connecting to which regions are affected... I'd love to see more data).
calvinkaskey
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Saw the tornado in Stedman, N.C. Storm looked very impressive ie. the convection while it was growing. damage very minimal probably be rated f-0.
calvinkaskey
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also chased storm up into Greenville, just lots of big lighting strikes and tons and tons of rain. Wonder if the rainfall amounts are underestimated. Saw some mammatus, striations.
Dan Robinson
EF5
'Dixie Alley' has always had a violent tornado history. I'm sure everyone has seen these maps, but just for reference, here they are (copied from a past post in this thread). From the University of Nebraska-Lincoln High Plains Regional Climate Center these show all tornado reports (left) and violent tornado tracks (right) from 1950 to 2005:
Also of interest: Jon Davies' blog post listing the top ten worst tornado outbreaks in US history, ALL outside of the Plains (aside from a small part of the May 1927 event clipping the central Plains):
http://davieswx.blogspot.com/2011/04/27-april-2011-tornado-outbreak-stunning.html
It's clear the South matches the Plains on every count - violent tornado frequency, number of tornadoes, tornado damage and deaths. James Spann might even have the career edge on Gary England when it comes to the number of events he's covered live.
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=abc+33+40+tornado+live&aq=f
However, it's become increasingly clear how the Plains' violent tornado history has been underaccounted for by damage-only scales. There is more for tornadoes to hit in the South. Like others have said, I'm inclined to believe the Plains and the South are probably very close if not equal in this category.
Also of interest: Jon Davies' blog post listing the top ten worst tornado outbreaks in US history, ALL outside of the Plains (aside from a small part of the May 1927 event clipping the central Plains):
http://davieswx.blogspot.com/2011/04/27-april-2011-tornado-outbreak-stunning.html
It's clear the South matches the Plains on every count - violent tornado frequency, number of tornadoes, tornado damage and deaths. James Spann might even have the career edge on Gary England when it comes to the number of events he's covered live.
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=abc+33+40+tornado+live&aq=f
However, it's become increasingly clear how the Plains' violent tornado history has been underaccounted for by damage-only scales. There is more for tornadoes to hit in the South. Like others have said, I'm inclined to believe the Plains and the South are probably very close if not equal in this category.
Rob H
EF5
Dixie Alley's outbreaks seem to be spread further apart time-wise, and if you remove a small handful of events (notably 4/27/11) it takes on a somewhat different character. I think the high visibility in the southern plains, combined with most of the research being done there, and even popular media to an extent (Wizard of Oz, for example) paint the southern plains as being "Tornado Alley" in most peoples' minds. Dixie Alley gets a lot of tornadoes though, some very large tornadoes, and more deadly and long-track tornadoes. It's not some unheard of tornado haven that the locals have been keeping secret.
Brandon Clement
EF4
Another thing to consider is when a tornado drops down in the middle of nowhere in the plains it can still be seen. If it happens in Mississippi, well, when a tree falls in the woods...
In the last decade radar has made some significant leaps forward and is now to the point where survey teams can fly over areas thought to have been hit by tornadoes in the middle of the woods and verify them. So now that tree does in fact make a sound.
I do agree the time between big outbreaks in states like Ms and Al may be a bit farther between than in the plains but the southern states make up the difference with the length of tornado season and the second peak season in the fall. While the fall season is short, November is a potent month in the southeast. The south also gets tornadic cells from tropical systems but even if that is disregarded and only the classic right moving tornadic cells are counted then the SE still can go toe to toe with any place in the country.
When talking about the most dangerous place to live this isn't even a valid argument. The southeast, midwest and Texas then the plains. I left Texas as it's own entity because most of the Texas tornado deaths happen outside the traditional plains areas and is more inline with the Southeast. Typically DFW metro south gets the fatalities while DFW north and west get the frequency. Most people would be shocked to find out Kansas and Pennsylvania both average the same amount of tornado deaths per year (2).
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cae/svrwx/tornadobystate.htm
I think recent years is less of a trend and simply more media coverage. When I first joined this site most people thought the idea of chasing East of I-35 was flat out silly. That seems to be changing some after the Yazoo City and Tuscaloosa tornadoes. I do think as more chasers start making the long drive to the south, more will leave with their tail tucked but 1 out of 5 is still 20% more. This is certainly not a boast about who has more balls, whether southern chasers are better because I wouldn't drive from the plains to chase in central, southern or east Ms into Al. Chasing in the SE is very, very difficult. It is dangerous and it isn't for the faint of heart. The awareness level has to be so high for so long it creates a stress that takes a lot of the pleasure out of it as well. With that said, the only time I ever thought I was about to die was in Oklahoma (El Reno). Both areas can be chased but I'm far more successful in the plains even though Ms is my home turf. I also chase completely different in Ms. A lot more of the "chasing" is just intercepting and I keep a bigger distance between myself and the circulation. I may miss more tornadoes in the short run but I'll make up the difference with a longer life expectancy. For example, Monday I was within a mile or 2 of three different wedges and never caught more than a glimpse at one of them (Louisville). In the plains I would have bagged 3 high end tornadoes with nice videos of each. The only plus side to chasing in the south is the lack of really big hail.
In the last decade radar has made some significant leaps forward and is now to the point where survey teams can fly over areas thought to have been hit by tornadoes in the middle of the woods and verify them. So now that tree does in fact make a sound.
I do agree the time between big outbreaks in states like Ms and Al may be a bit farther between than in the plains but the southern states make up the difference with the length of tornado season and the second peak season in the fall. While the fall season is short, November is a potent month in the southeast. The south also gets tornadic cells from tropical systems but even if that is disregarded and only the classic right moving tornadic cells are counted then the SE still can go toe to toe with any place in the country.
When talking about the most dangerous place to live this isn't even a valid argument. The southeast, midwest and Texas then the plains. I left Texas as it's own entity because most of the Texas tornado deaths happen outside the traditional plains areas and is more inline with the Southeast. Typically DFW metro south gets the fatalities while DFW north and west get the frequency. Most people would be shocked to find out Kansas and Pennsylvania both average the same amount of tornado deaths per year (2).
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cae/svrwx/tornadobystate.htm
I think recent years is less of a trend and simply more media coverage. When I first joined this site most people thought the idea of chasing East of I-35 was flat out silly. That seems to be changing some after the Yazoo City and Tuscaloosa tornadoes. I do think as more chasers start making the long drive to the south, more will leave with their tail tucked but 1 out of 5 is still 20% more. This is certainly not a boast about who has more balls, whether southern chasers are better because I wouldn't drive from the plains to chase in central, southern or east Ms into Al. Chasing in the SE is very, very difficult. It is dangerous and it isn't for the faint of heart. The awareness level has to be so high for so long it creates a stress that takes a lot of the pleasure out of it as well. With that said, the only time I ever thought I was about to die was in Oklahoma (El Reno). Both areas can be chased but I'm far more successful in the plains even though Ms is my home turf. I also chase completely different in Ms. A lot more of the "chasing" is just intercepting and I keep a bigger distance between myself and the circulation. I may miss more tornadoes in the short run but I'll make up the difference with a longer life expectancy. For example, Monday I was within a mile or 2 of three different wedges and never caught more than a glimpse at one of them (Louisville). In the plains I would have bagged 3 high end tornadoes with nice videos of each. The only plus side to chasing in the south is the lack of really big hail.
Shawn Schuman
EF3
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I made some posts about this a while back, but I think the traditional conception of "Tornado Alley" is a bit flawed, due in large part to the factors that Rob touched on. When people think "Tornado Alley," they generally think of the Great Plains. I made this map depicting the total Destruction Potential Index (Rich Thompson's metric combining area and intensity for each tornado -
) by county for the period from 1950 to 2012, and although it's a pretty rough method I think it shows a more realistic depiction of what we could consider "Tornado Alley."
There's a fairly clear maximum running from south-central Nebraska through North Texas (and the eastern Panhandle), across portion of the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee Valley. There are also a few other small-scale maxima as well. You can argue about whether the "peak" occurs in central OK or northern AL/central MS, but I think this is a pretty accurate depiction overall. If you restrict it only to long-track, violent tornadoes, Dixie Alley is the clear hot spot. The same is true for killer tornadoes.
And here are maps showing the touchdown points for all significant (F2+) and violent (F4+) tornadoes, 1950-2012.
There's a fairly clear maximum running from south-central Nebraska through North Texas (and the eastern Panhandle), across portion of the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee Valley. There are also a few other small-scale maxima as well. You can argue about whether the "peak" occurs in central OK or northern AL/central MS, but I think this is a pretty accurate depiction overall. If you restrict it only to long-track, violent tornadoes, Dixie Alley is the clear hot spot. The same is true for killer tornadoes.
And here are maps showing the touchdown points for all significant (F2+) and violent (F4+) tornadoes, 1950-2012.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Thanks for posting those maps, Dan and Shawn. I had previously seen the "all tornado tracks" map posted by Dan, but the others were new to me. They all clearly show that what we think of as "tornado alley" does NOT pop off the map visually at all. In fact, the preferred chase regions of the western tornado alley (i.e., west of the longitude of I-35) if anything seem to be more sparse in coverage than areas east!
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Shawn Schuman
EF3
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Well, remember also that most of that area is sparsely populated. Population density definitely skews most tornado statistics (it's probably no coincidence that three of the hot spots are the OKC Metro, Little Rock Metro and Tuscaloosa/Birmingham corridor, for example), but still I think we have a pretty clear idea of where the greatest overall tornado threat resides. Subjectively it seems Dixie Alley and the Midwest tend to get a lot of their significant tornadoes in a relatively few large, widespread outbreaks, while the Great Plains gets somewhat fewer tornadoes at a time, but gets them more consistently.
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