Severe likely to return to Plains or more likely, Midwest

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I have been looking at the trends in the medium range models for the past few days, and am encouraged by the signs- virtually all runs of the deterministic models such as the GFS, GEM, ECMWF etc have been advertising a large-scale pattern shift to a deep Rockies/West Coast trough/Eastern ridge pattern, and the ensembles are in very good agreement as well:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spa...ag_f192_nh.html

Also, the NAO, which has been negative recently, with resulting east coast troffiness, is forecast to switch:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ndex_ensm.shtml

So I expect more precip in the SW, with KFLG and KPHX getting the first significant precip of the season- then strong cyclogenesis in the Plains- with some severe weather likely, mainly from I-35 east by the middle to end of next week.

Matt
 
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