Rocky Rascovich
EF4
MOD: This thread pertains to the possible winter weather event in the 12/23-12/25 time frame. There is a FCST thread in the Chase Forecasts forum for discussion regarding the 12/18-12/21 winter storm in the central USA.
I'm risking putting my head on the chopping block for this but there is just barely enough consistency in the ensembles that suggest MAYBE a modified artic intrusion mixing with the STJ and cyclogenesis over northeastern Mexico into south Texas... could spell a white Christmas for places like Midland and San Angelo on north and east toward Wichita Falls, maybe even the DFW area. This would be the second time since '04 that Texas would receive snow for Christmas...
Obviously, much has to come together over the next week... my preliminary guess is that this scenario will pan out to some degree, long range data has been trying to advertise a more active pattern with colder than normal temps for the past several days... there will likely be a few more runs of the GFS that will waffle on the amount of cold air, degree of how much cyclogenesis takes place.. and the all important track where the rain/snow/ice line will be, and how much... I think it may be a tad north of the current scenario depicted because based on recent past history, the storm systems tend to track a little further north and west of what models originally suggested a week out. Maybe further north in the TX. PH and Oklahoma may be in for it this time.. also, I suspect that the artic/polar air mass may be shallow enough that more ice than snow will fall. This should be interesting to see how this evolves.
Rocky&family
_________________
I'm risking putting my head on the chopping block for this but there is just barely enough consistency in the ensembles that suggest MAYBE a modified artic intrusion mixing with the STJ and cyclogenesis over northeastern Mexico into south Texas... could spell a white Christmas for places like Midland and San Angelo on north and east toward Wichita Falls, maybe even the DFW area. This would be the second time since '04 that Texas would receive snow for Christmas...
Obviously, much has to come together over the next week... my preliminary guess is that this scenario will pan out to some degree, long range data has been trying to advertise a more active pattern with colder than normal temps for the past several days... there will likely be a few more runs of the GFS that will waffle on the amount of cold air, degree of how much cyclogenesis takes place.. and the all important track where the rain/snow/ice line will be, and how much... I think it may be a tad north of the current scenario depicted because based on recent past history, the storm systems tend to track a little further north and west of what models originally suggested a week out. Maybe further north in the TX. PH and Oklahoma may be in for it this time.. also, I suspect that the artic/polar air mass may be shallow enough that more ice than snow will fall. This should be interesting to see how this evolves.
Rocky&family
_________________
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