4/08/11 FCST: MO/KS/OK/TX

[Brian Davidson]

Should we add Missouri to this? In SW Missouri SPC is showing a 5% chance for a tornado and there is enough CAPE in the atmosphere to support severe supper cells.

 

[jeremy wilson]

Really starting to like central to west central OK. Wind are showed to be backed there just as well as the southern Kansas target. The models are in pretty good agreement about producing a cell in that area. Although concern about initiation may make me fly north later on. SPC also mentions the iffy enhanced tornado threat in Kansas.

 

[Doug Drace]

Im not quite sure whaere I want to set up just yet. Currently in OKC, thinking about splitting the difference between the northern target around OK/KS border and C OK. Latest HRRR showing a nasty supercell firing SW of OKC then tracking right through the metro area, and not much for the northern target. Surely if one or two fire further north and get on that WF, they are going to get severe quick, and have the enhanced shear of the WF to work with...so for now I think the Hennessey to Enid target area might still be a good place to hang out till show time. If a storm fires SW of OKC, still within range to shoot south and catch it as it moves into the metro area, and if storm fire NW along the DL, it's not too far to theOK/KS border...Ponca City Skew T/Hodo looks pretty decent late this afternoon...

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm having a tough time determining positioning for today... The chaser in me looks at the surface map and says "well, you should start heading up N of END and sit along the boundary in NW/NC OK". However, there is a nice Cu field currently in southwestern Oklahoma, moving northward rather slowly. The 17z Lamont sounding would show the removal of the cap with temps in the upper-80s and tds in the mid-60s, which is what we're seeing just southwest of Oklahoma City. On the other hand, Tds are not terribly impressive along the boundary in NW OK, though they get better closer to I35. The last couple of HRRR runs have removed the supercell forecast for NW OK, leaving primarily junkus maximus and/or cap bust for Oklahoma. However, the 12z NCEP WRF shows a few nice supercells in OK --see max hourly updraft helicity starting near fcst hr 8 here. The particular model shows a couple of supercells developing W/SW of OKC in the next couple of hours and moving northeastward towards Tulsa. Then, another supercell (supposedly) will develop in southwestern Oklahoma W of Lawton near 1z, moving Eward S of OUN.

So, looking at satellite (with little Cu in NW OK and a nice field down in SW/WC OK) and surface obs (higher Tds having a hard time moving NWward to NW OK, with close to convective temp now being observed W and SW of OKC), I'm hesitant to move anywhere from the OKC area right now. I think it'd be safe to get a little west, so I may meander out towards El Reno to get out of the OKC area (and afternoon rush hour traffic). However, it's tough to ignore the sfc boundary in N OK, and it's tough to find local convergence that would support initiation in SW OK. Then again, if we're nearing convective temp in the next couple of hours, we may be able to get away with local effects (sfc forcing from the Wichitas?) that are not easily observable using the sfc observing network.

Edit: Latest obs do show some indication of some veered winds (S or just W of S) in far southwestern Oklahoma. As such, there's at least some confluence there, if not some convergence. Hmm.

 

[Doug Drace]

Im with you Jeff...not any real clear signals for initiation. Special sounding just in from OUN....storms most likely to initiate in the next hour to the WSW of OKC Metro and move NE 30-40...I just got word of that from the chief met at KXII. Im hanging around I-40 just north of Hinton at exit 101....see what happens in the next hour. Certainly better verticle motion to the atmosphere from I-40 to the SW from what im seeing out here. Also working with nasty cape up to 4000 from Lawton to Chickasha, and that shortwave is currently in W TX now, so with a little more eastward progression that could certainly kick something off in the next hour or so...