I'm having a tough time determining positioning for today... The chaser in me looks at the surface map and says "well, you should start heading up N of END and sit along the boundary in NW/NC OK". However, there is a nice Cu field currently in southwestern Oklahoma, moving northward rather slowly. The 17z Lamont sounding would show the removal of the cap with temps in the upper-80s and tds in the mid-60s, which is what we're seeing just southwest of Oklahoma City. On the other hand, Tds are not terribly impressive along the boundary in NW OK, though they get better closer to I35. The last couple of HRRR runs have removed the supercell forecast for NW OK, leaving primarily junkus maximus and/or cap bust for Oklahoma. However, the 12z NCEP WRF shows a few nice supercells in OK --see max hourly updraft helicity starting near fcst hr 8
here. The particular model shows a couple of supercells developing W/SW of OKC in the next couple of hours and moving northeastward towards Tulsa. Then, another supercell (supposedly) will develop in southwestern Oklahoma W of Lawton near 1z, moving Eward S of OUN.
So, looking at satellite (with little Cu in NW OK and a nice field down in SW/WC OK) and surface obs (higher Tds having a hard time moving NWward to NW OK, with close to convective temp now being observed W and SW of OKC), I'm hesitant to move anywhere from the OKC area right now. I think it'd be safe to get a little west, so I may meander out towards El Reno to get out of the OKC area (and afternoon rush hour traffic). However, it's tough to ignore the sfc boundary in N OK, and it's tough to find local convergence that would support initiation in SW OK. Then again, if we're nearing convective temp in the next couple of hours, we may be able to get away with local effects (sfc forcing from the Wichitas?) that are not easily observable using the sfc observing network.
Edit: Latest obs do show some indication of some veered winds (S or just W of S) in far southwestern Oklahoma. As such, there's at least some confluence there, if not some convergence. Hmm.