Potential winter storm to affect portions of the midwest and or plains next weekend?

[Rhyuan Janssen]

Looking back to my post about Kentucky; maybe I should have never said that as right now run looks to go right thru them. I am thinking that this is one of those weird GFS runs that just show up, like yesterdays one, and the run after this will be right back to where we were. If the next run comes out with the same thing and the other models trend towards it, I will get worried. Should be interesting to see what all the NWS centers say this afternoons package. My NWS just upped my pops to 70% on Saturday and saturday night, which will not happen if the low truly goes about 600 miles to the south of me LOL.

 

[Joel Wright]

Still a murky picture of what's going to happen this weekend. All kinds of phasing issues the models are struggling with. I think what will end up happening is a slower and deeper storm than what some of the models are showing right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see the heavy snow band get pushed back out towards Kansas and Nebraska/western Iowa, where it originally was placed a few days ago. This is based largely off of the consistency of the ECMWF model. Interestingly, it seems as if that model is the one that seems to keep things too progressive sometimes.

My gut feeling is the area from eastern KS up through about the western 2/3 of IA (clipping both NE and MO), and up into MN/WI will get nailed with this one. Time will tell.

 

[Josh Murfield]

The Omaha NWS office's forecast discussion this morning states that they are going with the notion that this thing is going to weaken as it moves through, they're only talking about 1-3 inches of snow here in eastern Nebraska. I sure hope they are wrong, I've had my hopes up for something big this weekend.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

Models now seem to be pushing low farther east..my guess is it looks to pass SE of N.IL and personally I think a light-moderately strong system will affect the area.
The 06z GFS yesterday morning showed a shift to the east with the track of the low. The 00z GFS run this morning continues to show a surface Low tracking to the southeast of my area but apparently weaker.
The European model has Low in almost the same spot as the GFS ..
So at this time I would go with a light/mod snow event somewhere in EC IA or NW IL..this is still a ways out so much can change. One thing that does appear certain and a given is another Arctic cold blast to follow with significant wind chills..Lets see how far till April ?
Anyway I am not getting overly exciting about this at this time..Time will tell.

 

[Joel Wright]

Definitely not buying the 12z GFS. Out to lunch city. This seems to always happen around the 84-120 time frame. A storm system that was forecasted with regularity suddenly drops off the map, only to suddenly reappear within the 84hr time frame. The western Pacific must be sampled better than the eastern Pacific or something.

If the storm system doesn't "reappear" to where it once was, further to the west and stronger by tomorrow's run, I'll buy everyone a round. Guess that'll have to be a "cyber" round since no one lives close to me lol.

 

[Joel Wright]

Actually, just took a peak at the new 18z NAM, and it's already trending a bit stronger/slower/further west in it's path. I think the 00z runs tonight will be quite telling on the future of the upcoming weekend...

 

[Rhyuan Janssen]

I am having some renewed hope for our big storm now!! This is from Quad Cities!

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUED SEASONABLY COLD AND UNSETTLED...RISK OF SIGNIFICANT TO
MAJOR WINTER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT REGION SATURDAY.

ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION SHOW CONTINUED LARGE CHANGES IN RUN TO RUN
SOLUTIONS AND INTRA-MODEL VARIANCE DUE TO PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN JET STREAMS. 1Z ECMWF IS TROUBLING WITH RAPID DEEPENING OF
STORM SYSTEM OVER AREA SATURDAY WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SFC LOW GOING
FROM 1007 TO 988 MB IN 12 HOURS...19 MB...OR NEAR CYCLONIC
BOMBOGENESIS CRITERIA OF 24 MB. MORE DISTURBING IS D_PROG_DT SHOWING
ECMWF MOST STABLE OF ALL SOLUTIONS...WILL GO WITH LIMITED INPUT FROM
ECMWF AND PASS TO NIGHT SHIFTS TO CLOSELY MONITOR DUE TO RISK AND
CONSEQUENCES FOR AREA OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER. ANOTHER CONCERN
IS SYSTEM ENERGY DISTRIBUTION AND TRACK CLIMATOLOGICALLY IS FAVORED
FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TO INTENSE SYSTEM TO PASS OVER AND AFFECT
AREA. WENT WITH 12Z NAM-WRF/GFS/UKMET BLEND WITH AGAIN SOME INPUTS
FROM ECMWF FORCING KEEPING LIKELY POPS SATURDAY WITH DECENT WINDS
BEHIND FRONT. ADDENDUM...18Z NAM-WRF TRENDING TOWARD 12Z ECMWF WHICH
ELEVATES CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF SYSTEM
SATURDAY.

IF this really is the most STABLE solution we really could have a blizzard again! I wonder if this will pan out?! I am hoping so!!

 

[Joel Wright]

Yeah, the ECMWF has easily been the most stable of all the models with this storm. With this morning's run it's even stronger with it. Although it may actually be overdoing it a little bit.

This storm system may end up being like the growling tornado that suddenly reappeared over the highway in Twister.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

I agree with Joel, the ECMWF has held strong through the period.

Looking at the 0z MRF/WRF/GFS/ECMWF, I am confused. They still cant seem to agree.. It looks to me like they are faster with the movement/progression of the low.. And much more unorganized.

However, QPF amounts are still relatively high, and with my region staying in the cool sector, may still see some hefty snow amounts.. Time will tell..

Also of concern will be the pressure gradient winds.. Gale warnings already posted off the coast..

Anyone know what "D_PROG_DT " means?

 

[Joel Wright]

...Anyone know what "D_PROG_DT " means?

I could be way off, but the way it's worded makes it sound like it's some sort of algorithm used to calculate which forecast model has been the most consistent.

 

[rdale]

Delta prog (change in forecast) Delta Time (with change in time.) Measures how much a model run differs (or better yet -- matches) its previous runs.

No algorithm needed - your brain can do it, or just plot the 00Z 36hr forecast on top of the 12Z 24 hour...

 

[Rhyuan Janssen]

WOO HOO...LA CRoss and QCA have now issued Winter STorm watches..up to 8 inches...talking about thundersnow and snowfall rates over 2 inches with zero visability...YEE HAW!!

 

[Rhyuan Janssen]

ZIPPEE I am under winter storm watch now...everyone east of 35 in iowa...but they are talking maybe a nw trend... if this thing slows down a bit... we are really in for it!

 

[Craig Maire II]

I love severe weather including winter storms and this event could make my drive to Desmoines on Saturday a little interesting

 

[Jeff Miller]

Keep in mind a few things on the homeswing:

1. The system is still a little ways off due to the fact the models have been very inconsistent. This is the type of system that will dissapoint some heavily and will surprise others delightfully - as it's all still much in the air. FSD is still saying confidence is low in any given solution.

2. The storm's path is still very, very uncertain. It has gone from a Great Lakes Storm to a Plains Storm back to the lakes and now back to the Plains. I'm not being biased when I mention farther NW is very possible, especially if it comes out stronger than models are projecting. Therefore, heavier accumulations could, could occur west of I-35 even. Even though models are latching on, we're still dealing with many, many uncertainties.

3. The biggest story will be blowing and drifting with high winds even with as little as 1 to 2 inches. Therefore, if you aren't in any advisory or watch, low visibilities will still be a concern.

4. Icing will not be a concern with this storm. Rain, a rain/snow mix, or snow will be the predominant precipitation forms.

5. The fun part is those who get the snow will be almost guaranteed a White Christmas.

6. And finally, thundersnow and convective snows are possible in the heaviest banding areas due to potential upright or slantwise convection.

Personally, I expect a shift NW on the 00z run. But that's pure wishcasting combined with a hope of a more intense system.