Possible winter storm and cold temps to affect "my" area middle and end of this week!

[Craig Maire II]

Looks like a winterstorm could affect portions of the midwest including Iowa with 2 to 4 inches of snow (some locally higher amounts possible), gusty winds and later in the week subzero night time temps!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/?n=outlooks

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif


I'm not sure if I'd be excited for that or not. I guess if it is going to be freaking cold, there may as well be snow. And I guess if there's going to be snow there may as well be a lot of snow.

 

[Rhyuan Janssen]

I think I can start to get xcited...EAU going to issue for their ENTIRE forecast area...and local chanel says they spoke with NWS at QUAD and they are going to as well... talking about 15-20:1 snow ratios now...if that happens I definately can see the nam accums verifiying....will be sweet as I'll get around a foot!

 

[Josh Richardson]

Craig, you should probably expect the possibility of higher totals than that for your location. Right now the GFS and NAM both are putting off big swaths of at least 7 inch totals at 10:1 across a large area going SW-NE across the state. Lacrosse has already issued their WSW nothing yet from DMX and DVN but I would definitely expect this soon. Of course the track of the low as always could change all this so we'll see what happens.

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_60HR.gif

 

[Jayson Prentice]

The WS Watch has went out for much of the state of Iowa, with areas of OAX going with a Snow Advisory already for portions of southwest Iowa. Northern Missouri has also went under that Snow Advisory as well... New DMX forecast indicates that 4-8 inches can be expected with the snow bands, wouldn't be surprised to end up seeing reports of near 10 inches if some of the QPF totals can verify.

Winds are expected to increase during the snowfall, but to an even higher degree come Friday after this system comes through. So likely to see some impressive drifting on Friday with the snow being very light and fluffy, blowing snow advisories are probable then. I'm going to watch this storm come in and pass through, then try to get out of the state Friday afternoon as I'm heading down to New Orleans. We'll see how well that works out...

 

[Josh Richardson]

I agree with the possibility of the 10 inch totals Jayson, especially in an area between Newton and Waterloo. It sounds like I finally will get nailed up here as well as I could easily see closer to 6 inches if not more.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

DVN notes in their AFD that some models have come in east with the system, and other shifts may need to extend the watch east... I wouldnt mind a half foot and no school!

 

[Bill Schintler]

Winter storm Wednesday/Thursday, eastern IA

A winter storm will bring several inches of snow to most of eastern Iowa beginning Wednesday afternoon. Below are forecasts for specific locations:

Cedar Rapids:
Light snow will start at 5:00 PM CST. Snowfall rates will become moderate to heavy during the late evening hours, and will taper to flurries by 1 PM on Thursday. Total snowfall accumulation: 6.5 inches.

Iowa City:
Light snow will start at 5:30 PM CST. Snowfall rates will become moderate to heavy during the late evening hours, and will taper to flurries by 11 AM on Thursday. Total snowfall accumulation: 4.8 inches.

Marengo:
Light snow will start at 4:45 PM CST. Snowfall rates will become moderate to heavy during the late evening hours, and will taper to flurries by 9:30 AM on Thursday. Total snowfall accumulation: 6.2 inches.

Synopsis:
UA analysis shows digging trough over the NWRN CONUS with strong H3 divergence overspreading WRN SD/NEB in the right-entrance region of a 100kt lead H3 wave. H85 flow in the lee of the Rockies has strengthened and backed in response to cyclogenesis over ERN CO and CNTRL SD, while at the SFC weak pressure falls were centered over SWRN KS/TX panhandle and further E, the ridge has shifted E of the Great Lakes. Light radar returns are indicated over the WRN Dakotas and S into WRN NEB. Closer to home, return flow and WAA is underway over IA.

Discussion:
This should be a very dynamic system with abundant moisture which will be difficult to FCST timing and snowfall totals. Impressive synoptic lift within the left-exit region of a 130kt H3 jet along with frontogenesis through the H8-H7 layer develops over IA by Wednesday evening with the best lift concentrated 50 miles NW of the H85 low track. PROGS now suggest stronger omegas and QG convergence then earlier indicated, and ULVL PVA as the left-exit region of the H3 speed max ejects from the base of an increasingly negatively-tilted trough. For the most part, the precipitation should be broadly forced. However, the latest mesoscale MDL trends have indicated some moderate H8-H7 frontogenetic signatures along with a sharp thermal gradient after 06Z Thursday, with regions of instability possible above that layer. Verification of such would result in localized enhanced snowfall rates. MDLs are in decent agreement with regard to the track of the SFC low, with the GFS and ECMWF solutions weaker and about 50 miles E of the NAM. Siding with the GFS/ECMWF, this suggests a track from SERN IA at 12Z to SWRN WI at 00Z.

Moisture will be plentiful with this system, with PW/S in excess of 0.4 inches in an area coincident with the strongest lift. Regarding snowfall totals, the Garcia method was investigated using the 285-290K SFCs and assuming 4g/kg mixing ratios, this supports 24hr snowfall totals in excess of 5 inches NW of an Iowa City to Dubuque line in ERN IA, with lesser amounts to the S. Looking at NAM and GFS QPF, 0.38 to 0.5 inches is indicated, while the Cobb algorithm suggests 10:1 to 14:1 ratios from SE to NW. Looking ahead… In the wake of Thursday’s system, a clipper system will follow in it’s wake while bringing another round of snowfall and a reinforcing shot of arctic air.

- bill
9:00 PM CST, 01/15/08

 

[Josh Richardson]

Latest runs have moved the heaviest totals east a bit and have also lessened the totals. It seems the favored area with this run would be in between Waterloo and Cedar Rapids and then in a NE fashion towards Central WI. It seems my area is still around the 4 inch mark but going towards the Waterloo area accums will definitely pick up.

 

[Rhyuan Janssen]

Well maybe I'll get the 'brunt' of this one..as I live about...3 miles NW of W'loo..However they are trending down amts now..POO!
But it is snowing right now already about 3 hours ahead of schedule