Potential winter storm to affect portions of the midwest and or plains next weekend?

[Craig Maire II]

Just checked Desmoines IA hazardous weather discussion and forecast discussion and it seems that MAYBE my area will see yet another significant winter storm next Saturday night or Sunday: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/?n=outlooks

Looks like we might actually have a white Christmas this year!

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Yeah Craig I saw that too. I think areas such as KS, MO, IA, NE, IL, even OK may see some winter precip next weekend. I will be in Texas this weekend though so I will miss it. The 4-8 day outlook stated a possibility of severe weather in TX when I'm down there. So all in all it could be an active weekend for the Central US and New England by early the next week as yet another possible nor'easter may affect that region.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Been watching it too. The GFS has been very consistent up until this mornings run, where it opened the wave and sped it up. If we could get a slow moving closed low it could be a big snow event for Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Iowa. I haven't been watching this real closely, but I'm getting ready to. NWS in Wichita keeps mentioning it in their discussions and the latest forecast discussion mentions how they through out the 12Z GFS, so obviously they aren't buying the faster open wave solution. We'll have to wait and see, but I would love a huge snow storm. Especially with ONCE AGAIN getting screwed out of the snow on this snow storm that came through this weekend.

 

[Joel Wright]

The last few operational GFS runs look a little out to lunch to me. Way too progressive with what appears to be a decent storm. It was actually more in line with other longer range models yesterday and the day before. Even the latest 00z GFS seems too progressive and "open". ECMWF model shows a much less progressive/deeper low hanging back and evolving into a rather potent storm for the middle part of the CONUS by the weekend.

Could this be four weekends in a row there's a decent storm marching across the country? Wow.

 

[Rhyuan Janssen]

I am going to have to agree with Joel that the last few GFS runs I think are on crack. Some old lady came into my work the other day and told me that you should never have a snowstorm on the 1st of December, then December will be horrible for storms. Probably an old wives tale but so far she has been correct. Quad cities says someone could have blizzard conditions on Saturday night. Here's hoping it's me

 

[Joel Wright]

This is going to be an interesting storm for two reasons. The first, it's going to guarantee a white christmas for the folks who get slammed by the snowstorm. The second, on the warm side of the storm, the warmer temps and big dump of rain will wipe out much of the snowpack already in place. Some of the surface temps may be a bit overdone east of the low track, due to the fact the colder air will be a bit more stubborn/harder to displace with all the snow on the ground. It still would get warm enough, and when combined with rain would cause a lot of melting. Actually, depending on how much rain fell in a given location it could be a small flooding threat in urban areas where drains could be blocked/clogged with snow.

Anyway, the new (12z) operation GFS run came back to reality and showed a deeper and closed low configuration.

 

[JIM SELLARS]

The models have the track all over the place on this next storm...But I still see a bushel of snow on the NW side of it and SVR on the SE side...My thoughts is about 100 miles farther north than this weekends storm in the midwest and a siimilar track across the "RUST BELT" and New England

 

[JIM SELLARS]

Southwest Missouri....Springfield

 

[Rhyuan Janssen]

I hope the lo does not shift back to the NW as the track of the lo as it is now would be just about the golden path for me to get banged with snow. But still almost 5 days out and we all know how the models can be...

 

[Adam Lucio]

I dont like the latest runs, they spell nothing but rain for me and it seems the system has been sliding to the N with each run, models lately seem to be keeping the systems a little to the S of where they actually track.

Latest GFS bring the low almost directly over Chicago, if it jogs to the E a little bit we may see some wrap around snow but right now Im not excited yet,if I were in MN and IA I would be though.

This would be the 4th weekend in a row with a significant system!

Why cant this be SPRING!

 

[Rhyuan Janssen]

I am in Iowa, right around Waterloo so I am excited! I have gotten the shaft on the last two storms...both too far south for me to get any real precip; last one I a spit of fzr and then an even less spit of snow...but I won't get overly excited yet as it's still a way out!

 

[Dan Cook]

Good old GFS..now it's barely showing a low moving through the area.

 

[Rhyuan Janssen]

The GFS likes to make everyone wonder from time to time. Like yesterday when it opened the wave for one run and then went right back to closed...Even though it's still several days out I don't see some huge upset like it falling apart or the low going thru Kentucky or some weirdness...

 

[Josh Richardson]

Yep, not much to say about this mornings run. Still could see some accumulations up here in Northern IA but the low doesnt get really get going like Dan mentioned anymore for IL and GL region. Long ways out yet, we'll just wait and watch this thing flip back and forth Im sure.

 

[Rhyuan Janssen]

I seriously hope the GFS had some bad coffee this morning as it takes the lo from the boarder of TX/LA up thru TN and KY!! that would spell certain doom for any of my winter hopes here in IA!