Possible North Texas Severe Weather!

[Simon Brewer]

Hey girls and guys it looks like a possible severe weather set up for central/maybe Northern Texas on Sunday or Monday. This could be interesting, because this last shortwave is not wiping out the Gulf, so Sunday or Monday could happen. Of course there are lots of factors that will have to be arranged for a good severe weather setup on these two days, but I'm sure you guys will address those.

Simon

 

[Simon Brewer]

Big stuff might happen in Northwest Texas. Get some mid-50's dewpoints and it's all over.

 

[Simon Brewer]

I'll be heading out on Sunday for a nice chase.
NW Texas is my current target, but I might slip down to Abilene if things look grim, but it's going to be fun.

Comments?

 

[Amos Magliocco]

another dry run?

On the last GFS, the mid-week system devastates the boundary layer, pushes the best theta-e air south of Havana, Cuba. Get your passports! LOL!

The backdoor fetch over the Mexican interior won't get it done. I'd love to chase, so I'm hoping this run is way wrong.


850:

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/4d/mrf_850_4d.html

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/5d/mrf_850_5d.html

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/6d/mrf_850_6d.html

Sfc:

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/4d/mrf_1000_4d.html

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/5d/mrf_1000_5d.html

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/6d/mrf_1000_6d.html

AM

PS: what looks to be setting up BEHIND the 10 day output could be interesting. But now we're in la-la land, model-wise. I just like the active look of things. That moisture can't hide forever.

 

[Simon Brewer]

The sun rises and sets further north everyday, and the Gulf will eventually recover from this winters onslaught...

We will see some action eventually, but for tomorrow it is just storms, no tornadoes for NW Texas.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

oops

The sun rises and sets further north everyday, and the Gulf will eventually recover from this winters onslaught...
We will see some action eventually, but for tomorrow it is just storms, no tornadoes for NW Texas.

I thought you were talking about next week! LOL!! My bad.

A

 

[Simon Brewer]

That's cool, but you're right, next weekend the moisture will not be there, and that is too bad, because it's a nice shortwave moving through.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Tomorrow does look like a possible setup for supercellsin NW Texas. Too bad I have to work. I'm dieing to see a supercell. Provided they occur, these storms won't be moving very fast. I'm jealous...

Jim Bishop

 

[Simon Brewer]

The 0Z run of the ETA has arrived! I think I'll be heading down to NW Texas tomorrow. I have a few friends that will be with me as well. I think the dewpoints in NW Texas will be higher by tomorrow evening than the ETA projects, so I'm really optomistic.

I will decide my target city tomorrow morning, but I'll make a preliminary guess right now: Guthrie, TX

If I do make a target city in the morning it will only be temporary. I'll move around quite a bit during the day to keep myself in prime position. I'm hoping to get a weak slow moving supercell, nothing to drool over. Maybe see some nice convective action, some small hail, thunder, lightning at night. The tornado possibility is near 0.

Simon