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Possible March chase chance for SP...

GFS showing a glimmer of hope for a chase opportunity the first few days in March with some moisture returning to the Southern Plains and a rather large system forecasted to move ashore around that time frame returning us to a beautiful SW flow once again.

This is still 10+ day out and I would not be surprised if the forecast changed but naturelly I tend to get a little overly excited about the chance.
Plus this is how I plan my time off of work. lol. So I loosely rely on the GFS for that reason.

Something to look forward to though.

GFS has been in pretty good agreement with this pattern these past few days. A large-scale upper trof pushes onto the west coast, with southwesterly flow taking over most of the southern plains -- with a surface cyclone evolving in southeast CO, with southeasterly surface flow transporting plenty of low-level moisture into the southern plains, with the 850mb 10C isodrosotherm pushing well into KS by the third of March, in the midst of fast southwesterly flow aloft. We could be in for an active early March if this situation pans out.

I'm hoping to get a few March chases in.
I'm liking the looks of the long range GFS as well, and I'm crossing my fingers we'll all be enjoying those open roads again in a week and a half.

Only fly in the ointmint? I still haven't got the ol explorer ready, this could be a rushed project :(
Got my clutch fixed (well, kind of...) and new tires put on today. New camera is ready to go. Should be interesting to say the least.
Cant wait to get my new digtal camera out in the field :) !. I got a few things standing in the way of me chasing in that time period, but I should be able to get those out of the way if the models continue to trend towards a possible chase.
The GFS has been pretty consistent of late--I'd almost bank on at least some severe weather in the first week of March. Of course, it's way too far out to determine any real opportunities for tornadoes, but a pattern change is definitely occurring and it appears that spring is on the way. Personally, I'll just be glad to feel some good Gulf moisture again!

I miss Gulf Moisture :cry:

This thread gives me reassurance I'm not the only one that checks the long range GFS on a consistent basis at the start of February looking for "the change".....
The models have been pretty consistently trying to pull short-wave energy into the southwest and then out into the southern plains for the last few months. Instead they've been less progressive and more absorbed into a single jet, rather than splitting the flow.

This seems to still be the case, as the models are ever-more pessimistic about any significant impulse making it very far in from the coast. :( More rainless days for us and drought for the southern plains. It wouldn't be too bad a picture storm-wise for the spring, but until the Gulf opens up more it's gotta suck.
I've posted this on my blog and thought it had warrent to be here as well...

And the chatter begins...

Blogs, forums, and conversation alike, the chasing world has a small buzz to it this morning. Some of it optimistic, some not so much, some a bit of both, and some in between.

I don't forecast anything officially beyond four or five days. To me, its like buying a house the day before the lotto numbers are drawn assuming you're going to win. While there's a million-to-one chance, its in the very far realm of possibility. I certainly wouldn't bank on it. And while forecasting assumes much better odds, my thoughts are the same; I won't bank on it either.

But I can hope. Afterall, you buy the ticket with dreams that you may win. I look ahead at patterns with dreams I may chase. What happens on that chase sharply changes those initial odds, but when you're this far out, you have to wish for one before the other can happen. And that's where I am now.

I haven't done much but glance at the models to familiarize myself enough to get involved with the conversation. However, I will admit to raising an eyebrow at the possibility it displays. But of course, with the excitement comes the inevitable pessimistic view which comes with forecasting anything this far out. Will this actually verify? Hell, I'm curious as to why I'm even thinking about it 8 days out. Afterall, when that timeframe actually arrives, it could just as easily be snowing in our area of interest. With my initial, first-of-the-season shock out of my system, I'll return to reality and keep a patient eye over the coming days to see how this evolves. If on Sunday/Monday, things still look interesting, I'll start to put my pre-chase ritual in motion. In any case, I'm definately listening.

Some notes on this coming system; if it starts to look more and more possible, I'm going to hope it maintains the general timeframe for which it's shaping up to be (Thurs - Sun). With that in mind, its a perfect opportunity for me seeing as I would have very little going on to worry about annd would easily be able to get out. My only drawback is a friend who's coming in from out of town whom I missed over the holidays and owe her a visit. Unless a two-day setup takes shape (a scenario I'll touch on later), I can work around that as well.

Between now and then, I'm going to be kicking a dead horse about how I want a test-run of my van, gear, etc. And if a questionable setup does look to play out at all during my preferred timeframe, I'm probably going to bite just for the reason to get everything out. Because its early enough in the season, I'll have plenty of opportunity to make any changes I see fit. Remember, there is a reason why I call this preseason.

If a two-day scenario holds chance (Thurs and Fri/Fri and Sat), I'll likely be in a feasable position to chase both days. What I'll likely do is spend a night or two camped in my van pending my travel distances and do a hotel the night between chases. Either way, I'll have a full day to return home.

Why I'm dicussing this, I don't know. I'm more excited about the chance of a road trip to break everything in than I am for actual storms. But, I obviously won't just up and leave without a reason, so any remote chance would be nice to see at the right time. I'll be watchin' the chatter over this through the weekend before I actually go headlong into anything and HOPE that at least enough of a chance exists to get that test run I so desperately want.
You know when I first looked at the GFS Tuesday morning and saw moisture return on the 240hr frame I was like Ah well ok whatever... I figured it would change on the next run.

I got up Wednesday and looked again and was pleasantly surprised at that run. Decent flow (for March) from the Gulf and a pending trough entering the SW US.

Today's run was not quite as enticing but still somewhat consistent with previous runs. The consistency is very interesting yet it is still several days out and one can only speculate on the outcome.

Of course when I look the GFS 4-5+ days out there are only a few things I look for.

1.) Moisture.
2.) 500mb speed, vorts, troughs
3.) 700mb speed

From that far out what more do you need to look at considering you would probably just be wasting time analyzing things to get to the nitty gritty. Just MO though.

I am like everyone else though, if plays out I will be there if not I will keep looking on. I am very excited though...

Wow! The GFS run from 00Z FEB 26, Two chances for severe weather. The first is next Saturday the March 4 and the second is Friday March 10th. If the model is to be believed we might see severe thunderstorms as far north as Sioux City, IA. If Saturday is the day I know what I will be doing, a little SDS remedy perhaps.
I was beginning to wonder what the chances for severe weather would be through the Central and Southern Plains regions on Saturday after hearing the forecast in Wichita saying 40% chance with decreasing clouds before that.

That sounds like a preliminary forecast for something brewing, even if it is a marginal tornado event like we had back in late January.
Ensembles agree with the brewing: by the way: we have presently a record for 850 temperatures in OK since at least 1948.



Interesting that the analogs for svr wx events lit up for not late this week but late next week. Excellent correlation on the 500 mb pattern and decent correlation on the 850mb pattern.


Target...Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas.

Will be interesting to see. Low correlations on the rest of the period. Not sure how good it is as a long term predictor though. Definately bears watching!