Possibility of "Ana" developing off the east coast this week.

[Kori Winstead]

There's already an area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas. NHC going with 20/40, which sounds about right. Recent satellite trends suggest an increase in convection, but the entire system is still disorganized. Surface observations also suggest a weak surface trough in the area. Personally, I don't see this becoming very strong (45 kt at the most) before it heads westward toward the coast and weakens. The system could briefly transition to a [shallow] warm core system during the next few days, but it will initially start out as a subtropical if it gets a name.

You guys got any thoughts on this?

 

[John Olexa]

It bears watching. From 1851 - 2013 there have only been 4 hurricanes total in the month of May and none that have made Landfall in the U.S.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E17.html

The closest I found was hurricane Able in 1951 May 15- May 24 ( Cat 2) just missed FL & NC

 

[Kori Winstead]

Whatever happens will be a non-event anyway. >_>

 

[Kori Winstead]

60/60 from the NHC now. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see this get named tonight if current trends continue*. The system as a whole is much more organized now than it was even six hours ago, with a better-defined surface circulation (still broad) and shallow convective bands well-removed from the center,ala subtropical storm.

*Although if it by that point it technically meets organization requirements, the NHC will probably conservatively (and understandably) wait for recon tomorrow seeing as today's mission was canceled.