Sam Sagnella
EF5
The scale is arbitrary, 'categories' were assigned to windspeeds decided upon by man, not nature. Nothing keeps hurricanes 'from going higher,' its just that everything higher is still a category 5.
NOW: Hurricane Rita
- Thread starter HAltschule
- Start date
nickgrillo
EF5
I believe Jeff already answered this question. If Rita reaches windspeeds of 155MPH it'll be a Cat. 5, if Rita reaches windspeeds of >200MPH, it'll still be a Cat. 5.
That is simply how the scale was designed...
Anonymous
I hope it is a wobble or every single model is pretty significantly wrong. If it is making the turn north this early then Houston may be out of the woods because the track would shift to the central La coast.
Anonymous
Would someone look at this sat image and tell me that there is not another small low pressure forming in the extreme SW gulf. I hope I am just seeing things becuase it sure looks like it could be one forming and it would cause Rita to track NNW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gm...ex-wv-loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gm...ex-wv-loop.html
Andrew Khan
EF5
Oh, okay I see now! I wasn't quite understanding what you were saying. Thanks for explaining it. When do you think it’s going to ‘make the turn’ to the north? Isn’t it some sort of pressure system that is in essence ‘guiding/directing’ it in it’s path? I'd say the system will reach it bu Fri, and give it the turn...
rdale
EF5
Officially CAT5 with 165mph winds...
Sam Sagnella
EF5
I hate to be the guy that posts 'breaking news'-type posts, but
Brace yourselves...
The minimum central pressure, as reported by one of the NOAA planes, has fallen to 908mb and winds will be increased to 165mph at 21z.
Brace yourselves...
The minimum central pressure, as reported by one of the NOAA planes, has fallen to 908mb and winds will be increased to 165mph at 21z.
Gary Stofer
EF1
I was thinking the same, the latest sat images seem to be showing an earlier turn to the northwest which would move the track farther east. I'd bet the 4pm update will move landfall a little more east as a result.
Glenn Dixon
EF2
rats - I'm late 
WTNT63 KNHC 211955
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 165 MPH. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4 PM CDT ADVISORY.
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT63 KNHC 211955
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 165 MPH. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4 PM CDT ADVISORY.
FORECASTER AVILA
In that latest satellite loop it looks like there's some sort of slight jog to the NW ... anyone else willing to comment?
EDIT: Holy Christmas ... look at the IR ... hopefully it won't stay on that track but this goes back to that strong high over TX ... is it possible to believe that Rita can't pursue her westerly track and is looking for any weak spot there is?
Hrmmm ...
EDIT: 161 kt making 185 mph - 10% sets the winds at the surface above 175 mph! Astonishing! The location is succinct with that anticyclonic loop current I mentioned yesterday and the deep warm waters of the GOM.
EDIT: Holy Christmas ... look at the IR ... hopefully it won't stay on that track but this goes back to that strong high over TX ... is it possible to believe that Rita can't pursue her westerly track and is looking for any weak spot there is?
Hrmmm ...
EDIT: 161 kt making 185 mph - 10% sets the winds at the surface above 175 mph! Astonishing! The location is succinct with that anticyclonic loop current I mentioned yesterday and the deep warm waters of the GOM.
Robert Dewey
EF5
Rita Repulsa (Power Rangers anyone? LOL) is now over the warmest/deepest part of the Gulf, probably resulting in the rapid intensification. I suspect that it will weaken before making landfall (CAT 3 or CAT 4), as it leaves this region... Then again, that's just my thoughts, and Katrina did the exact opposite of what I said...
Justin Bailey
EF2
I know the warm waters in the western gulf are not as deep as whats in the gulf loop. But is there enough warm water to sustain a strong cat. 4?
Because of the speed she is moving at she won't be sitting over the same area for too long and won't have much time to stir up the cooler waters. Her speed just might save her. And we all know that the stronger she gets now, the stronger she'll be at landfall.
Houston better keep an eye on this jog to the right!!!
N.O. better watch it to. if it continues then the big easy will be much closer than they want to another beast. and it wont take much to put that town under again.
EDIT: Hurricane watch now in affect for all of the texas coast and western LA coast. with T.S. watches extending all the way to just south of N.O.
Because of the speed she is moving at she won't be sitting over the same area for too long and won't have much time to stir up the cooler waters. Her speed just might save her. And we all know that the stronger she gets now, the stronger she'll be at landfall.
Houston better keep an eye on this jog to the right!!!
N.O. better watch it to. if it continues then the big easy will be much closer than they want to another beast. and it wont take much to put that town under again.
EDIT: Hurricane watch now in affect for all of the texas coast and western LA coast. with T.S. watches extending all the way to just south of N.O.
IvanStorm
NHC 5p discussion
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THIS SEASON. DATA FROM BOTH
NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE DROP TODAY AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 KNOTS. THIS IS
BASED ON A 700 MB WIND OF 161 KNOTS RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR
FORCE PLANE AND A RECALIBRATED SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 146 KNOTS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNANIMOUSLY 140 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. BECAUSE RITA WILL BE CROSSING AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT
CONTENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
HURRICANE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AND THE INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE CONTROLLED
MAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND DECREASING HEAT CONTENT.
SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BUT RITA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND RITA IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
HAS BEEN FORCING RITA WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
CORE OF RITA IS BASICALLY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY EXTEND ABOUT 150 N MI IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND
FIELD IS ANTICIPATED...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
Odd there is no mention of the slight NW jog/track. The 4pm 3 day CONE from the NHC shows the hurricane further south than the latest Infrared Loop. Looks like the track is shifted slightly eastward towards Palacios/Freeport.
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THIS SEASON. DATA FROM BOTH
NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE DROP TODAY AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 KNOTS. THIS IS
BASED ON A 700 MB WIND OF 161 KNOTS RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR
FORCE PLANE AND A RECALIBRATED SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 146 KNOTS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNANIMOUSLY 140 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. BECAUSE RITA WILL BE CROSSING AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT
CONTENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
HURRICANE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AND THE INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE CONTROLLED
MAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND DECREASING HEAT CONTENT.
SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BUT RITA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND RITA IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
HAS BEEN FORCING RITA WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
CORE OF RITA IS BASICALLY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY EXTEND ABOUT 150 N MI IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND
FIELD IS ANTICIPATED...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
Odd there is no mention of the slight NW jog/track. The 4pm 3 day CONE from the NHC shows the hurricane further south than the latest Infrared Loop. Looks like the track is shifted slightly eastward towards Palacios/Freeport.
Gabe Garfield
EF5
Where did you obtain this info? Last recon I can see has c.p. "only" down to 914 mb. Thanks!
Gabe
