NOW: Hurricane Rita

[Justin Walker]

From NHC:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

EDIT: MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB

EDIT2: Sorry, just got this email...didn't realize had already been discussed

 

[Brett Adair]

Latest GT Imagery...

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I usually don't participate in the play-by-play thing, but this is pretty significant... Latest VORTEX message from recon indicates the central pressure is 934mb -- that's a drop of 54mb in 30 hours and 10mb lower than the 11am estimate central pressure! Max FL winds 137kt, though I don't know if it has sampled the entire storm yet, nor do we know what the SFMR (if equipped) is measuring. The 934mb typically supports Cat 4 intensity, and the standard reduction on the 137kt flight-level winds also support Cat 4.

 

[Brett Adair]

Latest RITA Spagetti Model Plot

 

[HAltschule]

This thing is a monster!! Satellite image loops of Rita show that she has explosive convection around the center. I expect the 5pm advisory to have Rita at upper Cat 4 or lower Cat 5 intensity. A due west motion continues, in agreement with the models which have been doing a good job.

 

[MClarkson]

latest dropsonde in at 928.

152 knots peak fl winds(~135 surface)

dvorak estimates of T7.0 140knots

borderline 4/5 at the moment.

 

[HAltschule]

LOL. There's no more accurate way to forecast than to nowcast!! :lol:

 

[Anonymous]

Originally posted by MClarkson
latest dropsonde in at 928.

152 knots peak fl winds(~135 surface)

dvorak estimates of T7.0 140knots

borderline 4/5 at the moment.

Where do you see this? Here is the latest vortex message on the NHC site, which doesn't agree with your numbers:

000
URNT12 KNHC 211600Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/1517Z
B. 24 DEG 11 MIN N
85 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2522 M
D. 65 KT
E. 070 DEG 27 NM
F. 180 DEG 137 KT
G. 075 DEG 09 NM
H. 934 MB
I. 12 C/ 3056 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 07 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX18A RITA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 137 KT E QUAD 1516Z

Glen

 

[Justin Walker]

Its the dropsonde report here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT3.shtml?text

 

[Anonymous]

This might be dumb but, can a hurricane go pass the Category 5 threshold? It would seem possible.

 

[MClarkson]

btw the last drop is now 922 mb... 6mb in 1 hour.

also a 14 degree difference between eye and surroundings, plus eyewall lightning indicates continued rapid deepening.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

RECON ...

142 Knots! or 163 MPH

Cat 5 has been reached!

Central pressure of 923 mb

This at 17:02:40 or 1:02 ET

Stadium type eyewall ... interesting. Thoughts anyone?

 

[William Combes]

check the last 5 hours of water vapor on RAP.UCAR It appears as if there is some dry air beginning to dive southward on the western side of Rita's current track. It will be interesting if the ridge over TX holds its ground. If so, Rita may track a little further southward.

 

[Brett Adair]

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Benjamin Sipprell
RECON ...

142 Knots! or 163 MPH

Cat 5 has been reached!

Central pressure of 923 mb

This at 17:02:40 or 1:02 ET

Stadium type eyewall ... interesting. Thoughts anyone?

Ben,

That's max FLIGHT-LEVEL winds, not surface winds. There's a rule-of-thumb 10% reduction to get to surface winds... So, 143kt max flight-level is about 130kt surface winds, which is still cat 4. The 923mb is also a little high for Cat 5.

That said, I can't see why we wouldn't have a cat 5 by later afternoon. Changes in wind speeds usually lag changes in central pressure, was has dropped 11mb in 90 minutes! The 11am central time recon had 134mb, while the 12:30pm central time recon has 123mb... That's insane! I'd find it statistically odd if the recon report just happens to occur at the minimum of central pressure during a rapid strengthening period, so I wouldn't be surprised to see <915mb by evening (or earlier). Rita is a relatively compact storm, so that pressure perturbation isn't spread over a very large area like it was with Katrina (which was Cat 5 with <905mb cp).