NOW: Hurricane Rita

[Jeff Snyder]

Just in case someone is only following this thread, I suggest checking out the FCMP at http://grove.ufl.edu/~fcmp/Rita/ ... There are 3 stations near and east of Port Arthur, including one that may provide a very nice sample of the eye (either T3 or T5). Certainly no cat 4 winds, but it does appear that the cat 3 winds are likely verifying.

 

[Justin Turcotte]

Beaumont ASOS measured sustained at 64 with a 99 mph gust at 0818z. SLP was 956-mb and the eye was still a little ways off at the time. The storm is the real deal.

Edit: Beaumont ASOS still surviving with a 105 mph gust at 0853z.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

This storm seems that it may have done the same thing as Katrina did near landfall... IIRC, there was a decent convective flare-up right as Katrina was making landfall. I think this flare-up likely helped potential surface winds be realized (e.g the 138mph wind gust at NWSO Slidell). Most storms weaken on landfall, but it seems as though the convective flare-up right at landfall has helped Rita maintain intensity despite being inland now. In fact, the new 4am advisory indicates that max sustained winds remain in the 120mph range, which is unusual given that the center of the eye has been officially over land for nearly and hour and half. The radar representation of the northern eyewall became considerably stronger immediately at and after landfall, and I hightly suspect this is the cause for the Cat 3 winds being measured/reported/etc.

Some of the anecdotal accounts from reporters in Rita are pretty impressive... One of the reports said that, in his many years of covering hurricanes at landfall, this is probably the worst he's covered in terms of winds. Sure, there's some sensationalism likely invovled, but I'm not sure there'd be much reason to lie in cases such as that.

EDIT: FCMP site T0 is now reporting 3s winds of 113.3mph with a 0.1s gust of 123.9mph. http://grove.ufl.edu/~fcmp/Rita/T0/NOAA-Ri...24-08-24-00.txt This station should be in the southwestern eyewall currently.

 

[Dante]

Picture from my front porch at 2:27 am in The Woodlands, TX:

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
In fact, the new 4am advisory indicates that max sustained winds remain in the 120mph range, which is unusual given that the center of the eye has been officially over land for nearly and hour and half. The radar representation of the northern eyewall became considerably stronger immediately at and after landfall, and I hightly suspect this is the cause for the Cat 3 winds being measured/reported/etc.

Some of the anecdotal accounts from reporters in Rita are pretty impressive... One of the reports said that, in his many years of covering hurricanes at landfall, this is probably the worst he's covered in terms of winds. Sure, there's some sensationalism likely invovled, but I'm not sure there'd be much reason to lie in cases such as that.

The eye passed directly over seven miles of Sabine Lake at 12mph, so that prob had something to do with it. I also agree that there are some pretty significant damage reports coming from the media in the Lake Charles area. A hotel is "splittling in half" according to FOX and there is significant damage to most of the hangars at the Regional Airport (location of NWSFO). This was, without a doubt, a legitimate category three hurricane at landfall according to the data from towers T0, T3 and T5 -- by the way -- props to the FCMP people for their perfect location selections

EDIT: Wow. FCMP tower T5 is reporting a pressure of 941mb as of 0902z. Excellent placement.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Originally posted by Benjamin Sipprell
Latest GFS (18Z) would suggest that the strength of the hurricane collides through a weakening section of the upper level high pressure that is to build over the southern Gulf states over the next few days. WV imagery surely shows one high pressure center over TX and another behind the exiting front along the east coast.

The latest GFS suggests the TX/LA border, but again I would side with Mr. Walker. Also there is a deepening trough behind the hurricane over the intermountain west as the hurricane makes landfall. Will that play a role? Surely ... but newer model runs, less error ... etc.

I wrote that on Tuesday! Wow! Models didn't do all that bad ... and I kept my prediction on TX/LA border ... sweet.

Anyway, looks like Galveston/Houston really dodged the worst. Everyone on this board speaking with regards to the storm restrengthening was wrong, and thank God. America is lucky this morning ... now everyone must learn and learn hopefully we shall ...

Low tide, little storm surge, the western side of the storm undergoing a lot of de-intensification. Refineries will be alright ...

Now let's pray for those around the TX/LA border and in addition the flooding rains aren't bad and the storm moves faster than anticipated.

 

[Brandon Clement]

Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:03 am Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
Brandon...I respectfully disagree with everything you said. The big wobble occurred yesterday which sifted the track a bit north. Satellite imagery shows a due west track for the past 1-2 hours (at 10am). Even if it were on a NW track now...I would not expect it to be over Lousiana. I DO expect Houston/Galveston to see huge winds and huge surge. In fact, I forecast a direct hit based on almost all of the the latest models and consensus. Further, I would expect Riat to be a CAT 4 when she makes landfall..Cat 2 seems way too weak especially given the models intensity forecasts.

I have pretty much based my forecast (guess) with the trends in most of the models as of now, if she continues on her current path with no turn to the north then it would hit just on the east side of Galveston. I know I am the only one saying this and I am going against just about every model and the NHC, but looking at it on Satellite (to me) looks like it is going to hit south of Lake Charles. After watching Isodore, Lili, Dennis, Ivan and just about every other major hurricane come rolling into shallow water and with the large amounts of dry air to the west and northwest of the storm combined with the weakening this morning and being due for an eye wall replacement my best guess would be strong 2 weak 3 at landfall. Oh well, we will see. The model forecasted for Lili to be a borderline 4/5 instead she was a borderline 1/2. If I am wrong I will be the first to tell say so, but I don't think I will .

Check out the archive of the path for Rita from NHC. Just keeps going north and east, I just think the trend will continue.

Like I said, I will be the first to admit I was wrong. Since it was not a strong 2 or weak 3 I was wrong. Close, but still wrong.

 

[Andrew Khan]

There so far has been 17 confirmed tornado touchdowns on the LSR's. And one of the tornadoes caused a fatality, and a lot of damage.