Anonymous
I agree. I don't think the weakening trend has had as much to do with Internal dynamics as it is drier air, increasing shear and significantly less depth to the warmer waters.
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NOW: Hurricane Rita
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I agree. I don't think the weakening trend has had as much to do with Internal dynamics as it is drier air, increasing shear and significantly less depth to the warmer waters.
Sam Sagnella
EF5
As of 11pm EDT, it's looking like this is going to be an ABSOLUTELY DEVASTATING event for Lake Charles. The eye looks to come ashore within 10 to 20 miles to the west of Cameron, which will push Lake Charles (the body of water) up the river and into Lake Charles (the city); storm surge in this area will likely approach 20 feet.
EDIT: Eyewall "tornado" warning issued for Cameron Parish, LA and Jefferson County, TX. This is where the northern eyewall is going to be moving onshore very shortly, with F2-like winds over a ~40 mile diameter area.
Bill Tabor
EF5
Looking at it right now on Weathertap's Enhanced Infrared and Water Vapor it looks pretty strong. I don't see the low temped cloud tops all the way around the eye as Mike was mentioning at -71 but it appears much of it is now near that temperature. I also don't see the open eye anymore so maybe it is stabilizing. What do you think?
Brandon Clement
EF4
Unless it crumbles down again it looks like I may miss my projection of 110mph. It actually does look quite a bit better than it did an hour ago. Looks almost like the eyewall has closed in and the storm has stabilized. Luckily it is about to run out of room or it could start to gain strength again.
I was just looking at Google Earth and there are a ton of houses all along the Large Lake south of Lake Charles some of them very large houses in very nice neighborhoods. If you check Google earth be sure to click on the water tab in the layers key so you can get a true idea of just how much of that area is water. I'm not too sure much of this area will make it through tonight. I hope most of these people did indeed evacuate or we could be looking at another significant death toll.
It is a good time to say some prayers.
On a lighter note, you guys think Jim Cantore choose to be a little farther away from this storm after his experiences in Katrina?HAltschule
EF5
11:25pm EDT
Questions/Comments:
1. Where did all of the rainfall go on the Southeastern Quarter of the storm? VERY STRANGE.
2. Did you see the 11:00-11:25pm EDT doppler images show what appears to be complete 45 degree turn to due west? Maybe Houston/Galveston is in bigger trouble than everyone thinks?
3. 88D indeed showing some weakening and disorganization of the eye. Maybe a good sign for the folks down there...relatively speaking. All of this may be related due dry air entrainment south or southeast of the storm. Will check H2O loop to look for answers.
Forget the models...nowcasting these things are more fun and challenge your memory of synoptic meteorology I.
Sam Sagnella
EF5
I may be completely wrong, but isn't this due to intense echoes that 'block' the radar beam's view of these areas?
EDIT: and, yes, I definitely did notice that hard left turn...we'll just have to wait and see how long it lasts...
Jeff Snyder
EF5
Sam, some of it may be attenuation, but the WSR-88D, since it's a 10cm (s-band) radar, usually only experiences minor attenuation that close to the radar (only 70 miles from the radar). I think there is just a lack of precipitation in that area.HAltschule
EF5
That's what I was thinking. It makes sense but I have never seen that happen personally.
Anyway...2.5 degree doppler shows the real eye the best and also now shows that Rita seems to be stalling as it approaches land. This may be temporary but these are the kind of things that can precede movement in a different direction or cause MAJOR prolongment of bad weather. More to come...
Anyone else see this?HAltschule
EF5
NWS in Lousiana has many flood warnings out calling for catastrophic flooding. This one caught my attention especially...WHOA:
FOR THE CALCASIEU RIVER NEAR SALT WATER BARRIER, THE LATEST STAGE WAS 2.9 FEET AT 8 PM FRIDAY. FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING, WITH A CREST NEAR 16.0 FEET SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO STORM SURGE. AT STAGES NEAR 13.0 FEET, THE RIVER IS AT ITS FLOOD OF RECORD. OVER HALF OF THE CITY OF LAKE CHARLES IS FLOODED.
Gary Stofer
EF1
Yep the last few frames almost look like it has slowed. Lets hope that isn't the case. I had read some time ago that hurricanes don't like to come onshore sometimes and have a tendancy to bounce a little? A base velocity run almost makes it look like the eye is heading right for Beaumont also, which is where Shep is with foxnews. Should make for some great video coming up providing he doesn't get blown away.
Andrew Khan
EF5
Wow, the eye looks pretty terrible in this thing right now. Is it because it's going/went into some cooler water temperatures? The eye is looking unorganized.
Sam Sagnella
EF5
LMAO, I saw him get blown over an hour or so ago and that was pretty entertaining. Anyways... yeah, Howie, I am really concerned about the situation in Lake Charles; the population of the city is over 100k and with a rough estimate that 95% evacuated, that still leaves more than 5,000 people in a city that has only just the 'tip of the iceberg' so to speak. The surge is already being pushed up from Lake Charles into the city, and this is only going continue until it peaks about three - four hours from now. Not to mention the petrochemical refineries...HAltschule
EF5
That's corportate america (refineries)...always preplanning for the unexpected. DOH...lets put these plants right along the waterfront.
PS: Station 42047 earlier this evening recorded sustained winds of 140mph. Not bad. Nothing even close to that on the live Buoy reports now.Kurt Wayne
WWL's Lake Charles reporter said a Harrah's gambling barge had broken from its moorings and was floating down the river.
(An amazing story pre-Rita...fisherman in Cameron Parish, straight south of Lake Charles, were saying that they were "catching" ATM machines in their nets, "bounty" from Katrina.)
Lake Charles, also, has some major petrochemical plants.Kurt Wayne
BTW, Cameron Parish is to Lake Charles what Plaquemines Parish is to New Orleans...hate to see what will happen there.Similar threads
