It sounds like the 23z VORTEX message will be the last one for (EDIT) RITA. The current recon trip just ended, and I heard a met on TV say he knew there would not be another one due to proximity to land. Latest IR shows very cold cloud tops wrapping around the eye. However, as has been the case since the prolonger ERC ended this morning, the eye has not stabilized. Since this morning, it looks like there have been a couple more attemps at ERCs, as there were 3 concentric eyewalls around Rita most of the day. Latest radar from Lake Charles indicates that the inner eyewall may be falling apart. If this is indeed the case, there are two possibilities I see... First, the outter eyewall will contract and we will see slight strengthening. The second possibility is that there will not be enough time for the outer eyewall to contract, and the storm will make landfall with a very large eye. If this happens, I don't think they'll see mid-range Cat 3 winds given the lack of strong reflectivity currently in the outer eyewall. If there is enough time to organize a bit more, we could see high-end cat 3 winds I believe. Who knows... perhaps the lack of reflectivity in the inner eyewall is just temporary and not indicative of inner eyewall degradation as expected in an ERC.
