NOW: Hurricane Rita

[Scott Olson]

Hello weather friends. Looks like Rita may have finally stabilized but im not sure of any restrengthning prior to landfall as no models indicate this and their isn't a great depth to warm waters left in Rita's path. Several events have already unfolded including the bus explosion, the re-flooding of parts of NOLA and the hyper-rush out of Houston. Latest model consensus between GFS & GFDL puts this Hurricane through Port Arthur which should easily take out their sea-wall and flood a great deal of Port Arthur.

 

[JP Santiago]

The latest infrared imagery seems to suggest to me that there's more convection building on the west side. Man, this storm is wobbling quite a bit, too. Especially when you run the animation at faster speeds.

As an aside, they cancelled the Fort Worth Alliance Airshow scheduled for this weekend. The Thuderbirds and Canadian Snowbirds were to perform but they've been ordered to move out of the area.

 

[Anonymous]

The GFDL and NOGAPS are already to far south. Based on track up to this point the Hurricane looks to be east of the Galveston/Houston area. Looks like either the LBAR solution which puts in the middle between GALVESTON-ARTHUR or directly over Port Arthur as the GFS and some other dynamic models indicate.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Rita at 1610z:


Rita at 1955z:


The latest UW-CIMMS satellite based intensity estimate at 1945z was 132kt winds with a miniumum central pressure of 925mb. While the VDM was sent out at roughly the same time and indicated a minumum pressure of 930mb, this pressure nonetheless still is generally supportive of category 4 intensity. However, we've seen that, in the last 24hrs, Rita's pressure has supported far higher windspeeds than were actually observed -- presumably due to ERC. Now that this ERC is complete, we should be seeing only one wind maximum with category 4 windspeed develop. Without a doubt, I continue to feel that Rita about to restrengthen, if she is not already, and will quite likely be a cat4 at landfall.

 

[Anonymous]

The CIMMS- Dvorak System won't reflect CI weakening for many more hours so the intensity is still from last night.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Wow ... I walk away from the computer for an afternoon and Rita decides to do some funky dance moves ... I've never seen quite a jump like that ... now I hope she keeps jogging more north than west at this point ... avoid Houston!

EDIT: whatever Rita crossed over in terms of ocean waters caused a huge spike in the IR on the western side that has not been seen since her Category 5 days ...

EDIT: Interesting note ... did anyone notice on the visible that as Rita took a big jump that a cumulus field just flashed instantaneously across portions of southern and central Texas ... that's interesting ... maybe just coincidence, nothing more ...

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The eye is also currently showing signs of increased definition. The previous filling in now seems to be clarifying and the gulf is again visible inside the eyewall. Slight re-intensification would seem at least possible as the storm wobbles west at this point, though it's impossible to tell whether we will manage to see a significant drop in pressure and escalation in wind speed. This has been quite an interesting thing to watch this afternoon.

 

[Anonymous]

Can anyone shed some light on what the 5 aligned "things" west of the storm are in this image ?

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Seems like some sort of error to me ... or UFO's? ...

 

[Glenn Dixon]

Can anyone shed some light on what the 5 aligned "things" west of the storm are in this image ?

Lanny? Is that you? :?

 

[Dave Kaplow]

Those are the Chinese mobile scalar weapons platforms that are controlling the storm. They were there for Katrina also, but the experimental shielding they were using back then has apparently failed, thus rendering them visible for the first time to IR satellites.

:wink:



Actually I'd guess some kind of artifact.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Should be a new VORTEX soon... looks like the NOAA plane just popped into the eye again. 91 kts max flightlevel in SW quad.

422
URNT40 KWBC 232030
NOAA3 2318A RITA

...snipped...

202400 2744 09255 10019 -0724 305074 +148 +108 304075 048 003
202430 2746 09253 10013 -0778 303077 +148 +097 302077 052 004
202500 2747 09252 10014 -0825 300077 +154 +102 301078 055 003
202530 2748 09250 10027 -0878 298076 +158 +102 296077 057 003
202600 2750 09248 10028 -0942 295081 +144 +127 294082 061 003
202630 2752 09246 10022 -1026 292084 +159 +110 293084 065 004
202700 2753 09244 10015 -1121 288087 +167 +144 288088 069 004
202730 2755 09243 10038 -1231 291089 +175 +147 288091 074 001
202800 2756 09241 10003 -1373 288087 +189 +148 293089 071 001
202830 2758 09239 10021 -1497 276072 +197 +154 281078 062 003
202900 2800 09238 10033 -1575 277053 +197 +148 274066 041 004
202930 2802 09237 10019 -1621 282036 +202 +145 287040 028 003
203000 2804 09237 10018 -1656 274023 +192 +143 278028 011 001

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Dropsonde indicates 931mb. Also, 121kts flightlevel in NW quad:

203630 2821 09221 10023 -1385 148115 +150 +150 148117 088 025
203700 2822 09219 10042 -1256 141117 +139 +139 141118 085 028
203730 2823 09218 9997 -1155 142119 +139 +139 143121 064 056
203800 2825 09216 9984 -1059 139117 +131 +131 139118 077 042
203830 2826 09215 9974 -0971 138110 +133 +133 137115 076 024

*edit* and here is the VORTEX:

610
URNT12 KNHC 232100Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/2031Z
B. 28 DEG 09 MIN N
92 DEG 37 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2493 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 289 DEG 91 KT
G. 197 DEG 15 NM
H. 931 MB
I. 14 C/ 3055 M
J. 20 C/ 3056 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2318A RITA OB 20
MAX FL WIND 124 KT NE QUAD 2037Z
EYE OPEN E THRU W

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Slidell (KLIX) radar still indicates at least 2 eyewalls, perhaps three. The reflectivities in the inner eyewall do seem to be coming up, from about 40 to 55dbz. The Houston radar does should the 'outer' eyewall expanding a bit.. .I don't know if there are times when the outer eyewall dissipates and the inner eyewall takes over (in ERCs, it's the opposite of that -- inner dies, outer contracts). I guess only time will tell. The window for strengthening is closing as land interaction increase. I still think we can get to 920mb if the inner eyewall every decides to close. Otherwise, if it remains opens, I anticipate high-end Cat 3 at landfall... If the inner eyewall does manage to close off, and the concentric outer eyewall (as seen on radar) dissipates, I think she could very well be cat 4 at landfall. Time's a tickin'

 

[HAltschule]

Analysis of WSR-88D sure shows a nice eye wall moving on a heading of 310 degrees (toward the Northwest). I agree that Rita will be a Category 3 or 4 storm as it moves inland early tomorrow morning, but my feeling is that landfall will be right in between Galveston and Port Arthur, TX. This will probably save Galveston and Houston from the worst part of the storm as it will be on the typically weaker left side of the storm, but Port Arthur and areas near to it will get slammed. Galveston will still have its share of the problems but not as bad as it could have been.

At this point the models are of little help in determining the future track of Rita. The best thing to use is satellite and radar observations. This is why I am adjusting my landfall eastward by about 25 miles. Barring any last minute jogs to the left, I think this will be the deal.