NOW: Hurricane Rita

[Anonymous]

I am not buying the ERC this time, sure looks to me like she is sucking in huge gulps of dry air. Can't a hurricane just weaken in a less favorable environment or does it have to be an ERC? Looks like a future cat 2 landfall south of Lake Charles. Looking at the WV loop I can't imagine any type of strengthening to occur since she now has large areas of dry air to her west and north. Yesterday when she was a beast she was just simply pushing the dry air back. Now the dry air is not budging and she looks pretty ragged. The last couple loops her western half looks very poor and it is only a matter of time before the drier air hits the eye. I would expect the shear over La to become more of a factor this afternoon, especially if she continues to weaken.

 

[Brandon Clement]

Posted: Fri Sep 23, 2005 7:36 am Post subject:

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I am not buying the ERC this time, sure looks to me like she is sucking in huge gulps of dry air. Can't a hurricane just weaken in a less favorable environment or does it have to be an ERC? Looks like a future cat 2 landfall south of Lake Charles. Looking at the WV loop I can't imagine any type of strengthening to occur since she now has large areas of dry air to her west and north. Yesterday when she was a beast she was just simply pushing the dry air back. Now the dry air is not budging and she looks pretty ragged. The last couple loops her western half looks very poor and it is only a matter of time before the drier air hits the eye. I would expect the shear over La to become more of a factor this afternoon, especially if she continues to weaken.

I should really start checking to make sure I am signed in.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

I'm definitely happy of the fact that the rain bands coming onto the TX shoreline are dissipating to some degree or another ... in some cases completely evaporating ...

The less rain the less inland flooding and thus the less damage.

I concur ... I think Rita had her fun in the sun and now she wants to relax ... nothing is looking impressive on satellite and the pressure slowly wobbles higher ...

 

[Kurt Wayne]

Hope

I hope she ends up being Isadore's weak sister.

 

[Justin Bailey]

I went to bed expecting to see a stronger Rita with the pressure down a few mb's. instead the pressure is up, and there is obvious dry air entrainment. This ERC seems to be taking an extremely long time to complete. it will be fun to watch and see if she will strengthen anymore. the dry air could really weaken it. that really has me concerned for the sake of the storm, but leaping for joy for the sake of everybody in TX and LA.

EDIT: Rita still hasn't allowed the dry air to penetrate the eye. and it won't surprise me to see her keep it out. She's done a good job of that so far. I feel that strengthening is a good possibility if the dry air cannot penetrate.

 

[HAltschule]

Rita's Eye on Doppler Radar

Rita's eye is now in range of the "long" base reflectivity site in Lake Charles, LA. Track the latest movement of the center using this method. Be advised, when I last spoke with the guys at NCEP, they had this webpage set to update images every 15 minutes, not 6. It is a test product still. Enjoy.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lch_N0Z_lp.shtml

 

[Justin Bailey]

the latest satelite images show a slgiht jog to the left. this should still keep everyone in houston on thier toes. they're not out of the woods yet. didn't someone mention the gfdl tacking this storm right over galveston on its latest run?

 

[HAltschule]

I haven't seen the latest GFDL run yet this morning but I am still calling for a landfall over Galveston/Houston, TX. The ETA last night had a direct hit on Galveston FWIW. My reasoning hasn't changed in the past 36 hours. These jogs to the left are still occurring...and it is to be expected by hurricanes as you know. I know I am the odd man out with my landfall forecast, but that's the way it goes. I have been called odd before

 

[Justin Bailey]

i think you prediction might be right on the money. especially if this latest "wobble" turns out to be more than just a "wobble".

EDIT: last few satelite images show very intense convection re-developing around the core. could this be the start of reintensification?

 

[Brandon Clement]

The short range ensemble nailed the shift west and now has it continuing on a WNW path until just befor landfall where it takes a sharp turn to the North and makes landfall near Port Arthur. I have never paid attention to the SREF how does it normally do with hurricanes?

 

[Guest]

Where can GFDL, SREF, etc. models be found? How often do they run? Thanks

 

[Austin Ivey]

Check out the 4KM special WRF hurricane run track. Initialized on 9/23 0Z.

The WRF brings Rita back to a CAT5 and right across Houston. The WRF did very well with Katrina and Ophelia.

 

[Steve Miller]

Decent pressure drop as she nears Houston - I agree that the WRF did very well with Katrina and Ophelia.
Since the hurricane is encircled by that subtropical high and has decent ability to carry mTw values into the southeast portion of the storm, there very well could be a period of growth here.
Austin - thanks for posting that.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

i think you prediction might be right on the money. especially if this latest "wobble" turns out to be more than just a "wobble".

EDIT: last few satelite images show very intense convection re-developing around the core. could this be the start of reintensification?

A possibility ... but I've seen tons of periods of on and off intensification via IR ... one thing I can say with more assuredness is that Rita is slowing her NW movement ... just have to wait and see ... models are having a tough time with her track on a consensus agreement ... there are loops back into the GOM, stalling to the west, racing to the east ... crazy.

 

[C Hux]

Latest wv looks like she just hit the brakes...