NOW: Hurricane Rita

[HAltschule]

Did you read my post? That's what I was saying. So, no, it's not just you.

 

[Joshua Crisp]

ahhh, sorry I didn't see it I just went directly to the 17th page without looking heh...

 

[Sam Sagnella]

I agree with your landfall target, Howie, and I personally am very much still thinking this is going to be a Freeport-Galveston storm. The 00z model output still remains clustered from just to the E of Galveston to the TX/LA border, but, especially after this (temporary?) jog to the left, Rita still has a LOT of latitude to gain if she's going to make the TX/LA border area. I'm sticking with my original target near the Freeport area, but may need to shift slightly to the east in the morning. My bottom line is that I think this will make landfall to the southwest of Galveston Bay.

As far as intensity is concerned, I would really like to see the post-ERC restrengthening start up before I commit to anything drastic, but overall I think Rita will have a similar intensity to Katrina at landfall -- 145mph.

 

[Michael Auker]

New satellite photos show the large outer eye starting to emerge. Really a contrast to the smaller eye it's had up to now.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Reminder: Please try to keep all comments substantive and informational. Rules have been slackened for this forum, as they were for the Katrina forum, but there isn't really a need for posts that only say "Yeah, me too" or things along that line. Everyone is encouraged to post in this forum, and in this thread, but please try to keep posts as high quality as you can. Again, you don't necessarily need to posts things like you would in Map Room, just as long as it is contributing to the discussion as a whole. Thanks!

 

[HAltschule]

Guys and gals...thanks for all the great comments and information, I am enjoying these threads. But there are a lot of posts on this forum and a lot of repeat messages and information have been sent. I understand that some folks just want to fire off the latest advisory info. or track guidance...but can we please read the previous posts b4 hitting the send button to fire off info. that already may have been posted? It will save a lot of time for those reading through each post. Thanks in advance.

 

[HAltschule]

Back to business....

The 00z ETA is in through 72 hours. It shows a direct hit on Galveston, TX and Houston, TX. It has come back to earth with its track forecast. I personally like the GFS and GFDL the best for tropical systems.

What's really troubling to me is that the ETA keeps Rita on the coast or only 40 miles or so inland for about 36-48 hours +. This could prove to be devastating if it slows or stalls like the ETA is suggesting.

Comments...???

EDIT: Movement WNW at 10mph. Winds 140 mph. Definitely holding her own!!!

 

[Anonymous]

I totally agree with ETA on stalling Rita Inland. The only thing I do not agree with is that Rita will stay only 40-50 miles inland. I think that Rita will make it all the way to northeast texas before she looses her steering currents. But overall, I do think that ETA has a good handle on stalling Rita inland for 48 hours and dumping a fatal amount of rain in Eastern Texas.

 

[MClarkson]

NAM performs poorly for tropical systems. the latest GFDL continues its northeast shift closer to beamont... the UKMET is in LA.

on IR it looks like the inner cloud tops are warming significantly so this could be the last of the inner eyewall. too bad the eclipse is coming again... seems like the hurricanes are always doing something cool precisely when the satellites face into the sun.... fortunatly there is a plane there today.

 

[HAltschule]

NHC track at 11pm is the same. No change. They agree with your position well into the DFW area. I am not so sure. Looking forward to seeing other models. As I mentioned earlier, I also like the GFS and GFDL for the tropics. ETA is out to lunch usually. The PUKEMET is also out to lunch many times too. NOGAPS is not too bad.

FYI: It looks like the CLIPER model that I referenced 3 or 4 days ago as being way out there would actually verify the best if it landfalls in LA.

 

[Chad Ringley]

The deeper convection has commenced around the outer eyewall, and with warmer oceanic heat content ahead...and the pressure still at 917mb...going beyond the NHC 125 kt guidance is possible. Ah, the lovely nightly black hole...it's like a christmas present on the other side!

Anyone know right off what the pressure/wind relationship for 917mb should be? Has to be at least 20-30 kt higher than what recon is finding. Perhaps a function of the concentric eyewalls (relaxed PGF?). May see that dissapear once the ERC is completely done.

EDIT: Acknowledging MClarkson already said something about the sat. outage

 

[blairkiel]

It is my understanding that the current pressure is at 919...

Am I mistaken?

 

[Justin Bailey]

No you're not. latest vortext message.
cp: 919mb
max FL wind: 125 kt
they also mention that the inner eyewall remnant is very ragged e-w

 

[Sam Sagnella]

No, you are correct. The current (as of 0324z) minimum central pressure is 919mb. However, as the satellite eclipse began, the eye diameter was definitely constricting and I suspect that we are finally seeing the end of the concentric eyewall cycle, and restrengthening is likely occurring. Unfortunately, I am holding firm in my assessment that Category 5 status will be attained for the second time, sometime within the next 12 hours or so.

EDIT: I'm watching the KHOU webcast and their cheif meteorologist is answering questions live on the air. Very interesting.

EDIT2: Anyone else catch Bill Nye the science guy on Larry King. He used to be the sh*t back in the sixth grade, but he totally wasn't knowing what he was talking about earlier this evening. lol.

EDIT3: I just want to make sure that EVERYONE FROM FREEPORT TO PORT ARTHUR who has chosen not to move more than 20 miles inland knows that they need to be prepared to be on their own for about a week. There is no way to accurately forecast wobbles in the track, and any such wobble has the potential to shift the landfall point several tens of miles, even within the 6 hours before it comes ashore. You DO NOT want to be in the right front quadrant of a landfalling Rita, and because there is no way to guarantee exactly where this will occur, it is really a dangerous decision to stay put anywhere within 20 miles of the upper texas coast north of Freeport.

 

[Justin Bailey]

you're not the only one thinking that sam. With the pressure already this low, good outflow, and nice warm waters. i wouldn't be surprised if we see cat.5 again, im just hoping that it times it just right that it'll weaken again before landfall. i'm thinking strong cat.4 ( 145 mph ). But honestly whats the difference. you're still gonna be getting the cat.5 storm surge. and with the latest wbble to the left, everybody in the houston/galveston area should still be scared and worried. the last thing we want to see is two of america's largest cities nearly swept away in less than a month. may god bless whoever this monster desides to blast.