NOW: Hurricane Rita

Mr. Sprewell wrote
Mr. Bailey ... are you just hoping for a catastrophic storm?

No. thats is the last thing i'd ever wish for. especially right after the worst hurricane america has experienced since camille. i just thought i'd try to make some humor out of a bad situation.
 
Originally posted by Justin Bailey
Mr. Sprewell wrote
Mr. Bailey ... are you just hoping for a catastrophic storm?

No. thats is the last thing i'd ever wish for. especially right after the worst hurricane america has experienced since camille. i just thought i'd try to make some humor out of a bad situation.
Click to expand...

Mr. Sprewell?

Anyway, no worries, only being sarcastic.

Here's some humor ... Shep on Fox said the only one who knows where Rita is going is Rita ... if that's the case maybe someone should talk to Rita ... fly out in a plane, start asking questions ...

Also the Nat. Inquirer has reported that the President has started drinking again ... hoo hoo hoo ... Robin.
 
Looks like Rita has (indeed) completed the ERC. The CDO is rapidly expanding, and outflow is increasing in all quads. In addition to this, the eyewall appears to be contracting somewhat. This could be the beginning of another period of intense deepening (though it won't have as far to go as yesterday considering the current c.p.).

Outflow to the south is restricted somewhat, but it seems that Rita is moving into a slightly better environment (in terms of shear and divergence) than it was earlier today.

Gabe
 
Ok gentlemen, get back on topic please. Thank you. :)
Anyway, the latest Storm Floater visible satellite loop shows that Rita's windfield is definitely expanding and that the ERC is nearly complete. The eye is regaining the cool "stadium" effect once again that it had yesterday afternoon. I believe that the weakening today was caused by the ERC and Rita passing over a cool eddy of water, NOT the 10 knots of southerly shear, which does not seem to be adversely affecting this storm like some say it is. With another pocket of 29 degree plus water ahead of her, and her ERC just about complete, I'll bet ya Rita will restrengthen and could easily regain sustained winds in excess of 155 mph once more and maybe even hold it to the coast, barring another ERC in the 36-48 hours or so left until landfall, which is unlikely but not impossible. In all likelihood Rita won't reach the "supercane" windspeeds and pressure she had yesterday at this time again, but with this storm anything is possible. Even if Rita reaches the coast "only" as a Cat 4, the wind damage will still be tremendous wherever it hits and the storm surge is likely going to be just as catastrophic as Katrina's was. Some accredited meteorologists are saying that the storm surge could be anywhere from 18-25 feet, maybe higher, and could reach as far as fifty miles inland in far SE Texas/sw Louisiana, drowning Port Arthur and flooding as far as Beaumont and Lake Charles. And then there is the threat for 20-30 inches of rain if Rita stalls out over east TX like the models are predicting it will. This will be a disaster of staggering proportions no matter which way you look at it, both in terms of wind damage, storm surge and inland flooding. I have a bad feeling we could see another lsignificant death toll. Not as massive as Katrina by any means, but I don't think it would be impossible for 200-300 fatalities to occur with this monster.
 
Originally posted by Gabe Garfield
Looks like Rita has (indeed) completeted the ERC. The CDO is rapidly expanding, and outflow is increasing in all quads. In addition to this, the eyewall appears to be contracting somewhat. This could be the beginning of another period of intense deepening (though it won't have as far to go as yesterday considering the current c.p.).

Outflow to the south is restricted somewhat, but it seems that Rita is moving into a slightly better environment (in terms of shear and divergence) than it was earlier today.

Gabe
Click to expand...

It's not quite through yet (with the ERC). The eye you see is still the inner eye. It should continue to weaken over the next few hours, and you will see the outer eyewall begin to finally replace it. The CDO is expanding because of the increase in the wind field as the energy transfers to the outer eyewall.
 
Dan is correct, there are still two eyewalls. The latest VORTEX message indicates central pressure of 913mb (there was a NOAA p3 report of 911mb earlier, but all AF reports have indicated 913mb), with the innner eyewall "OPEN NE-SE", and the following: "OUTER EYEWALL SMALL OPENING W"... So, as satellite indicates, there are still two eyewalls. We should see the inner eyewall fall apart any time now (the eye will look very ragged during this time), following by the contracting of the outer eyewall. The concentric eyewalls should still explain the very low wind speeds being sampled despite the very low pressure (913mb)... It is likely that the >100mph winds are spread out over a relatively large area, rather than having a smaller area of >120mph winds like we tend to see with normal eyewall structure. So far this afternoon, the recon reports have shown winds mainly in the Cat 3 range, which is low for the pressure.
 
Latest Recons as of 2330 UTC still suggest that the storm is only slightly strengthening ... a few drops in 1 or 2 mb increments of pressure ... but the past few hours it has held steady at 913 mb ... winds as high as 131 knts at one point ... eyewall still hasn't closed

Though the satellite imagery is impressive, I too believe the ERC hasn't completed ... if it had I would expect more aggressive tightening of the eyewall and concurrent pressure drops ...
 
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
Dan is correct, there are still two eyewalls. The latest VORTEX message indicates central pressure of 913mb (there was a NOAA p3 report of 911mb earlier, but all AF reports have indicated 913mb), with the innner eyewall \"OPEN NE-SE\", and the following: \"OUTER EYEWALL SMALL OPENING W\"... So, as satellite indicates, there are still two eyewalls. We should see the inner eyewall fall apart any time now (the eye will look very ragged during this time), following by the contracting of the outer eyewall. The concentric eyewalls should still explain the very low wind speeds being sampled despite the very low pressure (913mb)... It is likely that the >100mph winds are spread out over a relatively large area, rather than having a smaller area of >120mph winds like we tend to see with normal eyewall structure. So far this afternoon, the recon reports have shown winds mainly in the Cat 3 range, which is low for the pressure.
Click to expand...

Yep, it should be very interesting to watch this process. The inner eyewall should begin to erode very soon now.
 
As Dan mentioned, the ERC hasn't completed just yet. I just learned a bit about ERC in a little phone chat with Dan just a moment ago. :P

So that, as Jeff mentioned, explains why the wind speeds are so low compared to the usually Cat 5 c.p. of 913 mb. With that in mind, it seems likely that the storm will regain Cat 5 intensity tonight if the c.p. remains as low after the ERC is complete.

Gabe
 
Things to look for is an increase in eye diameter(indicating the inner eyewall is dissipated), an increase in eye temperature and a decrease in eye dewpoint.

These would indicate the ERC is over. I havent seen any of them yet.

Theres a plane passing through the eye right now.
 
Also note the jog to the left in the last couple frames of IR. More left wobbling adds to the jitters in Galveston. ERCs seem to induce wobbles but this storm had a weakeness in the ridge earlier in the day that it has churned past. Anyone think this could hit slightly left of the center forecast track?
 
Well, the CIMMS satellite-based intensity estimate at 0015z shows a T# of 7.1, a central pressure of 915.5mb, and winds of 143kts. I think that this is pretty much dead on, and that these estimates will be verified at the surface once the ERC and resulting wind field 'compression' are through. If not by 03z, then by 06z I think we'll have a Category 5 again.
 
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