NOW: Hurricane Rita

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Latest Satellite imagery would suggest that Rita is following along or close to the middle of the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) ... thus it is not surprising to see her strengthening ...

The weakening during the morning hours derived simply from the ERC ... I don't think any of the surrounding dry air was injested by the storm, only by the outer bands to ruin Rita structure.

It will be interesting to see the first outcome of Rita's oncoming as she nears the shallow shelf located I believe somewhere in the vicinity of 50 miles off shore ... the storm surge on this monster should be interesting.

Did anyone happen to catch those flooding image estimates on CNN, the graphics that is?

Either way, as I expected the strength of the strong high pressur built to the west over TX is definitely going to push Rita away from the Galveston area ... Rita will probably slow down and turn north in the vicinity of the TX/LA border as I noted earlier.

What I think is more interesting is what happens after landfall ... now that's worth discussing for inland flooding would be far more worse than the onslaugtht if Rita lands at the border of TX/LA ... LA would be drenched and just more woes especially ... and will the Mississippi River Levee's be able to hold back the draining waters? Even the Lake as well?

Questions about her outcome I feel are worth discussing aside from the landfall.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Benjamin Sipprell
.. LA would be drenched and just more woes especially ... and will the Mississippi River Levee's be able to hold back the draining waters? Even the Lake as well?

That's an interesting observation. While NO may avoid the direct flooding from heavy rainfall, it may not avoid river/lake flooding. I don't know what the MS River watershed looks like down there, so I don't know how much of the rain in western LA (some locations in which could see >25" rain per HPC) will make its way into the MS River and Lake Ponch.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

As of the 1922z VDM, Rita's center of circulation is about 27 miles ESE of Buoy 42001, putting the station in the NWrn eyewall. As of the 1950z report, 42001 is reporting a pressure of 963mb (down amost 12mb in last hour), sustained winds of 78kts - gusting to 97kts, and a wave height of 34ft. Incredible.

Air Pressure Changes at Buoy 42001
Max Wind Speed Changes at Buoy 42001
Max Wind Gust Changes at Buoy 42001
Wave Height Changes at Buoy 42001

 

[B Ozanne]

While NO may avoid the direct flooding from heavy rainfall, it may not avoid river/lake flooding. I don't know what the MS River watershed looks like down there, so I don't know how much of the rain in western LA (some locations in which could see >25\" rain per HPC) will make its way into the MS River and Lake Ponch

I may be completely wrong, but isn't a large portion of the Mississippi River diverted around New Orleans? There is a huge damn that diverts the river down the Atchafalaya. So upstream flooding isn't a problem, its rain water overwhelming the pumps again.

Buoy 42001 had a gust to 97 knots. Anybody know how well those buoys record the wind?

 

[Sam Shamburger]

TWC segment

Interesting segment on the Weather Channel just a while ago.

Warren Madden, one of the on-camera meteorologists, was a part of an aircraft recon mission into Rita this morning. He stated that they experienced hurricane force winds 120 miles north of the center, an indication of how large the windfield is. He also said that the dropsondes they released into the eyewall of the hurricane measured several wind speeds over 200 mph, with one measuring a wind speed of 235 mph very close to the surface! If correct, that is simply incredible.

To say the least, I expect to have quite an experience the next few days while at work (NWS Lake Charles office).

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Re: TWC segment

Sam you be careful ... I honestly believe that you will get the brunt of the storm, especially the eastern side.

Yikes, the office must be on full alert!

 

[Kevin Bowman]

dont know if this has been said already but the pressure has fallen 2mbs since the 1pm advisory, this according to the vortex message

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

4 pm CDT ... 913 mb, 145 sustained ... forecast to move over a warmer eddy of gulf waters ... yet shearing to increase with further NW movement ... possible slight intensification of Rita ...

 

[Sam Sagnella]

WOW. The 21z NHC advisory position is less than 11 miles from Buoy 42001...the 2050z update from it hasn't come in yet, but I'll post it when it does. This should be VERY interesting.

EDIT: Buoy 42001 is about to sustain a DIRECT HIT from Rita (amazingly slim odds of this happening). Since the last update, which was an hour ago, the pressure has fallen another 14mb and the winds are still roughly 75kts. Wave heights are 38 feet with an air temp of 26.2C and a water temp of 28C.

This is amazing --->Air Pressure Changes at Buoy 42001
Max Wind Speed Changes at Buoy 42001
Max Wind Gust Changes at Buoy 42001
Wave Height Changes at Buoy 42001

 

[blairkiel]

Surprised the NHC is saying that it is still going thru a replacement cycle.

What are they seeing that I am not..this thing looks like it has strengthened considerably in the last 3 hours.

I guess that is why I am an amature and they are pros.

But what am I missing?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by blairkiel

What are they seeing that I am not..this thing looks like it has strengthened considerably in the last 3 hours.

The problem is that this isn't verifying on recon reports. The latest recon has 913mb central pressure, with max flight-level winds of 122kts. Those flight-level winds reduce to about 110kt at the surface, or Cat 3. So, at least according to the obs, the wind continues to decrease, while central pressure has remained nearly steady (+/- 2mb isn't a big change). Satellite presentation has improved, but this isn't being reflected in in-situ observations currently. In-eye temperature on latest recon was 16C, down from 30C yesterday.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Need to make a big edit to that based on a newly-transmitted VORTEX message... The ERC does appear to be ending, with pressure down to 911mb, max FL winds of 133kts, and "OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTING". So, at least the 120kt advisory winds seem to be verifying (given that the 10% reduction is itself accurate in this case).

 

[Justin Bailey]

weeeee.....here we go again. back down the barometric rolercoaster. i guess the main questions now are...How much will the wind shear be able to stop the re-intensification process? and How low will the pressure go this time? any chance it'll break its own record of 897 mb.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Originally posted by Justin Bailey
weeeee.....here we go again. back down the barometric rolercoaster. i guess the main questions now are...How much will the wind shear be able to stop the re-intensification process? and How low will the pressure go this time? any chance it'll break its own record of 897 mb.

Mr. Bailey ... are you just hoping for a catastrophic storm? No worries, I'm there with you on breaking the record of 897 ... I was seriously hoping for Rita to break 888 but doubtful based on the fact on the temperature differences between the waters of the Caribbean vs. the GOM.

Now let's hope that Rita goes through another ERC and is at its weakest possible before and at landfall ... $5 for a gallon of gas ... yikes.

 

[Dan Dawson]

Not sure exactly what is going on with the recon reports. The two planes in there that reported recently differed slightly on their central pressures (not surprising), but one of them appeared to neglect to mention the outer eyewall. This has led some to say that the ERC has ended, when in fact it hasn't. It should be ending soon though, within the next few hours.