Justin Bailey
EF2
I'm surprised at how well this hurricane is handling itself with all the dry air that has been surrounding it its entire life. i never thought it would become as strong as it has due to the dry air.
NOW: Hurricane Rita
- Thread starter HAltschule
- Start date
C Hux
Seems to me that it is pushing the dry air out of its way, but I am very much an ametur at tropical systems. The western eyewall seems to be redeveloping.
Sam Sagnella
EF5
I expect the pressure to begin dropping again in the next several hours, and, quite frankly, I'm dismayed by how well Rita has held together.
Keep an 'eye' on buoy 42001, it looks to take a direct hit in the next couple of hours. The pressure has dropped 7.6mb in the last hour and winds are gusting to 70kts - wave height is 33 feet.
Keep an 'eye' on buoy 42001, it looks to take a direct hit in the next couple of hours. The pressure has dropped 7.6mb in the last hour and winds are gusting to 70kts - wave height is 33 feet.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
I agree that we may see pressure fall a bit this afternoon, or at least cease rising. The WNW/NW motion now means that Rita will NOT go over the minimum in Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential centered about 24.5N 91.5W ... See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/wo...W/2005264go.jpg
Cold cloud tops have expanded against in the western half of the storm per IR imagery. Latest VORTEX showed 915mb central pressure with a continue open eyewall to the SE.
Cold cloud tops have expanded against in the western half of the storm per IR imagery. Latest VORTEX showed 915mb central pressure with a continue open eyewall to the SE.
Anonymous
Yeah..I guess I need to learn more about ERC and it looks like I spoke too soon this morning...the western side is looking better and the water vapor images look good. The IR hasn't picked up as much as at looks like it wouldv'e in comparison to the Water Vapor.
Chad Ringley
EF2
The max flight level winds were only 135 kt on the last pass, supporting the drop to Cat 4 intensity.
It should be noted that the eyewall temp gradient is up to 8°C, a 4°C+ increase from the last recon. We should see at least a stablization in the pressure or perhaps a slight drop...and if the trend continues..we'll defintley see a drop.
The eyewall dewpoint temperature is up to 16°C, an 18°C increase from it's minimium of -2°C yesterday..hence the clouds in the eye. With the increase in convection on the western side, this should come back down some.
It should be noted that the eyewall temp gradient is up to 8°C, a 4°C+ increase from the last recon. We should see at least a stablization in the pressure or perhaps a slight drop...and if the trend continues..we'll defintley see a drop.
The eyewall dewpoint temperature is up to 16°C, an 18°C increase from it's minimium of -2°C yesterday..hence the clouds in the eye. With the increase in convection on the western side, this should come back down some.
Robert Dewey
EF5
It actually looks like Rita may enter that small maxima of TCHP...
Latest IR shows Rita is becoming more symmetrical, with the northwest quadrant filling in and deepening.
Chad Ringley
EF2
I've noticed a few posts on here discusing how the dry air over Texas contributed to the weakening of Rita.
Remember that in order for the internal dynamics of the hurricane to be altered by dry air, it must first ingest it via advection. There isn't any evidence that any dry air has affected Rita thus far. The weakening is due to internal eyewall dynamics and lower oceanic heat content. Also, remember that the subsidence aloft is actually contributing to the dry air profile over TX at this time.
The angle at which Rita will approach the coast will dictate when/if any dry air inflitrates the system.
EDIT: I failed to mention that the dry air is probably eroding some of the convection on the western fringes, but this isn't enough to alter the PV/latent heat release within the inner core. Her symmetry is frightening, and the outflow on the western half has slowly improved today.
Remember that in order for the internal dynamics of the hurricane to be altered by dry air, it must first ingest it via advection. There isn't any evidence that any dry air has affected Rita thus far. The weakening is due to internal eyewall dynamics and lower oceanic heat content. Also, remember that the subsidence aloft is actually contributing to the dry air profile over TX at this time.
The angle at which Rita will approach the coast will dictate when/if any dry air inflitrates the system.
EDIT: I failed to mention that the dry air is probably eroding some of the convection on the western fringes, but this isn't enough to alter the PV/latent heat release within the inner core. Her symmetry is frightening, and the outflow on the western half has slowly improved today.
Justin Bailey
EF2
I have an eerie feeling that everybody is taking a deep breath and a sigh of relief seeing Rita weeken today. But im thinking that with the ERC nearly completed, symmetry is being excellent, outflow is improving, dry air staying away, and Rita staying over the warmest water in her path, she wont weaken much more. Infact she is about to begin a strengthening process. No i dont think she'll drop below 900 mb like earlier, but below 910 mb i feel is reasonable.
B Ozanne
EF5
Don't forget that 915mb is no joke. I think Andrew bottomed out at 922mb. Many other infamous hurricanes bottomed out well above that.
Buoy 42001 is about 40 miles from the center at 1430est.
Buoy 42001 is about 40 miles from the center at 1430est.
blairkiel
She was looking a bit ragged this morning, but
now she looks a whole lot better.
now she looks a whole lot better.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
She's looking better... And pressure is actually down 1mb since the last VORTEX ob. That said, max flight-level winds are "only" 125kt, which is 113kt surface -- or the upper bound of Cat 3. Given the low pressure, this wind should come back up after the concentric eyewalls are dealt with.
MClarkson
EF5
once this inner eyewall dies and the outer one starts to contract, rita should strengthen again. Still, theres time for another ERC after this one, and dry air is all around. Both the ships and the GFDL trend downwards. I wouldnt expect a 5 at landfall... but you dont need a 5 to mess stuff up bad. What could save lots of problems is if the storm tracks a bit north of houston... and they get the weak side.
Justin Bailey
EF2
according to the latest votex message this is now a cat.3 with max flight level winds of 125 kt., but the pressure has dropped 1 mb. what's that i hear...re-strengthening???
EDIT: sorry for repeating. didn't see your post jeff.
EDIT: sorry for repeating. didn't see your post jeff.
Justin Bailey
EF2
anybody know what the lightning is like? any around the eye? if so then i would have to think that she is strengthening again...
