Kurt Wayne
That would be excellent, but I hate to hear about the N.O. area getting any type of "hit" again.
NOW: Hurricane Rita
- Thread starter HAltschule
- Start date
HAltschule
EF5
Brandon...I respectfully disagree with everything you said. The big wobble occurred yesterday which sifted the track a bit north. Satellite imagery shows a due west track for the past 1-2 hours (at 10am). Even if it were on a NW track now...I would not expect it to be over Lousiana. I DO expect Houston/Galveston to see huge winds and huge surge. In fact, I forecast a direct hit based on almost all of the the latest models and consensus. Further, I would expect Riat to be a CAT 4 when she makes landfall..Cat 2 seems way too weak especially given the models intensity forecasts.
Robert Dewey
EF5
I really think she is in an ERC right now... I could be wrong, the dry air could be getting to her... But the things that makes me think that dry air is not the case; the 'cane is still rather symmetrical - the dry air really hasn't ate away much at the northwestern side.
HAltschule
EF5
Still looks VERY impressive on zoomed vis. images. Looks also like a small second inner eye wall is forming.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
The eye is still very well defined, and central pressure is still 907mb... Yes, it's up 10mb in the past 12 hours, but 907mb is still lower than I bet most of us were expecting this storm to get to. The outflow looks incredibly healthy in the eastern 1/2 semicircle, and restricted to the west. At first, I was thinking there may be some moderate shear over the storm, but you can see some mid and upper level clouds spreading westward across the western Gulf. So, I suspect that the western half of the storm is experiencing dry air entrainment. In fact, the western part of Rita looks a lot like Katrina did as she was making landfall.
B Ozanne
EF5
Even when a 175mph hurricane weakens substantially it is still a strong storm. I have to agree with Howie that a 2 at landfall is just too weak.
I typically don't agree with Accuweather, but I like how Joe Bastardi doesn't shift his track every time a new model comes in or every time a wobble occurs. At least he says he doesn't do that. Unless the evidence is really there you've got to commit. You don't see the NHC running around with their heads cut off saying its going to hit Corpus one minute then Shreveport the next.
I typically don't agree with Accuweather, but I like how Joe Bastardi doesn't shift his track every time a new model comes in or every time a wobble occurs. At least he says he doesn't do that. Unless the evidence is really there you've got to commit. You don't see the NHC running around with their heads cut off saying its going to hit Corpus one minute then Shreveport the next.
Justin Walker
EF3
I agree that Rita is going through a ERC. THe shear is starting to weaken the NW quad. With these two ingredients, she may start to entrain some dry air and weaken her even farther. I think this would be best case for coast dwellers.
Brandon Clement
EF4
I have pretty much based my forecast (guess) with the trends in most of the models as of now, if she continues on her current path with no turn to the north then it would hit just on the east side of Galveston. I know I am the only one saying this and I am going against just about every model and the NHC, but looking at it on Satellite (to me) looks like it is going to hit south of Lake Charles. After watching Isodore, Lili, Dennis, Ivan and just about every other major hurricane come rolling into shallow water and with the large amounts of dry air to the west and northwest of the storm combined with the weakening this morning and being due for an eye wall replacement my best guess would be strong 2 weak 3 at landfall. Oh well, we will see. The model forecasted for Lili to be a borderline 4/5 instead she was a borderline 1/2. If I am wrong I will be the first to tell say so, but I don't think I will
.Check out the archive of the path for Rita from NHC. Just keeps going north and east, I just think the trend will continue.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_..._graphics.shtml
David Shohami
EF1
It will be worth monitoring buoy #42001, since it is directly in the path of the eye and according to the latest NHC forecast track should be hit in 12 hours. The buoy is already reporting winds of 50 knots and gusts of 68, with 34 feet waves. Pressure is 991 mb, which means that if the track is correct it should drop by ~70-80 mb withing 12 hours.
I hope the buoy will not fall apart because it will be very interesting if the eye passes directly above it.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42001
I hope the buoy will not fall apart because it will be very interesting if the eye passes directly above it.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42001
MikeH
I bet Cat 2 at landfall as well due to the extensive dry air over TX. Cat 1 would not surprise me. These can ramp up extremely fast to these strong levels, you can't tell me it is any harder for them to ramp down, especially with an airmass like what is seen on WV.
POOF I say. It seems it can weaken rapidly just by barely starting to touch the extreme dry airmasses. I just can't see it getting to land very healthy at all.
Mike Hollingshead
Ooops,
Robert Dewey
EF5
Latest RECON would suggest Rita is now a 140MPH CAT 4 hurricane. My bets are that Rita will make landfall as a CAT 3. As Mike H. pointed out, there is a very dry airmass, and it's having obvious effects on the hurricane.
EDIT:
I hope I'm not gonna have to eat my words... The IR loop has been getting more impressive with each scan. The "thin" side of the eyewall (which appeared to be the northern quadrant) seems to be expanding and deepening, as evident by the expanding -75C cloud tops.
EDIT:
I hope I'm not gonna have to eat my words... The IR loop has been getting more impressive with each scan. The "thin" side of the eyewall (which appeared to be the northern quadrant) seems to be expanding and deepening, as evident by the expanding -75C cloud tops.
Dan Dawson
EF2
Keep in mind that the water vapor imagery really only indicates mid-to-upper level dry air. The air in the low levels can be very moist. Water vapor imagery is really only a proxy for the total column moisture. Looking at a few soundings in TX briefly, though, the air in the low levels, while not astoundingly dry, is not overly moist either, so this may indeed have a weakening effect as the hurricane approaches, but not necessarily a rapid one. It takes time for such a large and well-established hurricane to weaken. Also, a lot of that upper-level dry air you see is at least partially a result of compensating subsidence as a result of the hurricane secondary circulation itself.
My take on the hurricane right now is that it is starting to undergo an ERC (the last 3 microwave overpasses clearly show this occuring, whereas yesterday there was no sign of it), and during this process the inner core weakens slightly. It's due to internal dynamics more than any shear or dry air entrainment at this point. Thus, I would not be at all surprised to see a reintensification trend at some point, though likely not to the same level as before. This should be superimposed on an overall gradual weakening trend as it approaches the coast.
My take on the hurricane right now is that it is starting to undergo an ERC (the last 3 microwave overpasses clearly show this occuring, whereas yesterday there was no sign of it), and during this process the inner core weakens slightly. It's due to internal dynamics more than any shear or dry air entrainment at this point. Thus, I would not be at all surprised to see a reintensification trend at some point, though likely not to the same level as before. This should be superimposed on an overall gradual weakening trend as it approaches the coast.
Justin Bailey
EF2
we will see rita continue to weaken, possibly down to a cat.3, as long as she continues to go through this ERC. but she still has a strong core of thunderstorms surrounding the center. and i believe the thunderstroms will keep the dry air out, and allow for strengthening to resume, once the ERC completes its cycle, back to a strong cat.4 shortly before landfall.
Brett Adair
EF5
Looking at WV/IR the only thing that is really feeding this thing is the moisture feed from the Yucatan channel. The cane isn't having a problem wrapping that in at all though.
