Michael Auker
When is the next plane due? The lowest pressure of Rita might not get measured.
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NOW: Hurricane Rita
- Thread starter HAltschule
- Start date
Jay Cazel
EF4
Fox News just said 896mb? Anyone else hear that?
Anonymous
As of 1:15 gmt all IR images show intense convection in the western outer eyewall extending out to the northern and southern half of the hurricane. The only cloud top temperatures I could find were well below -75 degrees using UCARs IR sat. Dvork being the most detailed image. Any comments on what the new Dvork T number will be?
Eddie
Eddie
I saw that with the crazy Accuweather guy ... they always explode every situation ...
I think it was just a small mistake ... that's all
MClarkson
EF5
unfortunatly, not for a few hours.
The pressure probably has dropped at least a few more mb because the cloud tops have cooled, but you are right, if the storm is peaking right now then the lowest pressure might get missed.
Justin Walker
EF3
From the weather channel: winds 175mph and 987mb central pressure
EDIT: oops....997mb
EDIT: oops....997mb
Justin Walker
EF3
Man...i guess I been staring at the pc way too long!!!
HAltschule
EF5
GET THIS!!!!
The 00z model consensus and extensions have all shifted markedly eastward. The GFS now tracks east of Houston by about 15 miles while the GFDL extensions bring the storm right over the City of Houston. The other models have also all shifted to the right quite a bit and are just to the left of Houston by maybe 15-20 miles. This is where the consensus track is also.
Of interest also is the new GFS forecast of 175 kt (200 mph) maximum sustained winds in about 48 hours. The GFS and the GFDL (and extensions) both continue the strengthening for another 36 hours from now!!!
IMO: The GFS has done the best job so far. The 18z GFS run nailed the more NW'erly jog this afternoon. If NHC doesn't reference the NW jog or model change in its 11pm advisory, I would be very surprised.
The 00z model consensus and extensions have all shifted markedly eastward. The GFS now tracks east of Houston by about 15 miles while the GFDL extensions bring the storm right over the City of Houston. The other models have also all shifted to the right quite a bit and are just to the left of Houston by maybe 15-20 miles. This is where the consensus track is also.
Of interest also is the new GFS forecast of 175 kt (200 mph) maximum sustained winds in about 48 hours. The GFS and the GFDL (and extensions) both continue the strengthening for another 36 hours from now!!!
IMO: The GFS has done the best job so far. The 18z GFS run nailed the more NW'erly jog this afternoon. If NHC doesn't reference the NW jog or model change in its 11pm advisory, I would be very surprised.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
Howie,
That is the AVNI, which is the interpolated 18z GFS, not quite the true 0z GFS run. Just a picky note hehe
Latest advisory indicates 897mb with 175mph max winds.
That is the AVNI, which is the interpolated 18z GFS, not quite the true 0z GFS run. Just a picky note hehe
Latest advisory indicates 897mb with 175mph max winds.
Sam Sagnella
EF5
No surprise here...the winds have increased to 175 mph (Katrina's max intensity) and pressure has decreased to 897mb (estimated). As Howie noted, the GFS has done pretty darn good up until this point and, IMO, there is no reason to doubt its peak intensity forecast of 175kts. FWIW.
Robert Dewey
EF5
Rita - if she continues on a northwesterly track - still has about 200 or so miles of high TCHP values (heat potential). I could easily see her strengthening.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/wo...W/2005262go.jpg
Also, does anyone else notice that the eye appears to be tightening up/shrinking somewhat (over the past 8 hours)?
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/wo...W/2005262go.jpg
Also, does anyone else notice that the eye appears to be tightening up/shrinking somewhat (over the past 8 hours)?
HAltschule
EF5
"INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA."
I was wondering when we were going to see this kind of wording begin. The "wording we have never seen before" in an NWS statement I think would be justified and will probably begin tomorrow morning or afternoon in a local statement.
NOTE: New NHC track brings Rita almost directly over Houston, TX as we have been talking about.
I was wondering when we were going to see this kind of wording begin. The "wording we have never seen before" in an NWS statement I think would be justified and will probably begin tomorrow morning or afternoon in a local statement.
NOTE: New NHC track brings Rita almost directly over Houston, TX as we have been talking about.
Chris Lott
EF4
Beautiful picture of the eye in this GOES water vapor image.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FL...FLOAT/WV/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FL...FLOAT/WV/20.jpg
MClarkson
EF5
well the satellites are about to eclipse and the plane isnt going to be there for another hour+
I wonder what pressure they are going to find... and what we have been missing these last few hours.
I wonder what pressure they are going to find... and what we have been missing these last few hours.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
I thought they were flying 3-hourlies... That was the plan today at least -- to fly missions at 0z, 3z, 6z, 9z, 12z, etc, at least according to the Weather Recon Flight plan at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?
