NOW: Hurricane Rita

[HAltschule]

HOWIE'S UPDATE:

The 18z GFS may be on to something!?!?!!! The Northwest Jog that lasted for 4 hours or so, was likely significant enough to change the track. Based on the following, the NHC MUST BE VERY WORRIED ABOUT THIS.

A review of the 18z GFS (one of the most reliable models for the tropics IMO) shows a major shift in Rita's track. It brings Rita onshore with a DIRECT HIT on Houston, TX at 2pm Saturday. I believe it will be a strong Category 4 hurricane. Given the NW jog, I am putting a LOT more weight on the GFS and a landfall in and around Houston. FYI: It is common practice for forecasters to wait a little while to see if another model run continues the trend before making adjustments...especially in such a high profile situation. That said, I'll bet this is what the NHC is doing and might even anticipate a track shift to the north tonight or at 5am tomorrow if the trend continues!!!

HOUSTON: WE'VE GOT A PROBLEM!!!!

 

[Chad Ringley]

As a note...

The 4pm EDT NHC conference call that I was told about from RAH made no mention of the same NW jog that I think we all see...and no one said much about it...basically writing it off to a "wobble".

Though the 275° movement vector really has been closer to 285° or 295° this afternoon.

 

[HAltschule]

Yes...but jogs as small as this when there is still a lot of real estate to travel can make for a large difference in where it makes landfall. I seriously think NHC is waiting before they sound the alarms. It's politics.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by HAltschule
Yes...but jogs as small as this when there is still a lot of real estate to travel can make for a large difference in where it makes landfall. I seriously think NHC is waiting before they sound the alarms. It's politics.

I agree, but if it was just a "wobble", then we could see a "wobble" to the south tonight to "make up" for the northerly wobble we saw this afternoon. They can't adjust their forecast based on every wobble, since wobbles are usually pretty common, particularly for weakening or strengthening storms. Personally, I think it was more than a little wobble, but not something that'd change the forecast landfall by 100 miles.

 

[Chad Ringley]

Yea, no doubt even the slightest wobble or two will make a storm surge difference for the Houston area even it comes in SW of there, as the previous track guidance suggested. Looks like it "wobbled" again toward the N in the last half hour (from 5-min IR imagery), which will probably continue to happen as it concludes the rapid deepening phase.

If I remember correctly, if the hurricane tracks farther to the N than the guidance, it follows a positive sea-sfc height anomaly, about 30 cm (which oceanographers tie to a warm temp anomaly below the surface) giving it more time over the extremely high oceanic heat content.

 

[Anonymous]

Originally posted by Chad Ringley
Yea, no doubt even the slightest wobble or two will make a storm surge difference for the Houston area even it comes in SW of there, as the previous track guidance suggested. Looks like it \"wobbled\" again toward the N in the last half hour (from 5-min IR imagery), which will probably continue to happen as it concludes the rapid deepening phase.

If I remember correctly, if the hurricane tracks farther to the N than the guidance, it follows a positive sea-sfc height anomaly, about 30 cm (which oceanographers tie to a warm temp anomaly below the surface) giving it more time over the extremely high oceanic heat content.

If you see the storm move above the 25 degree lat line tonight then you know that the track needs to be adjusted north and it was more than a wobble.

 

[Chad Ringley]

Originally posted by Guest
If you see the storm move above the 25 degree lat line tonight then you know that the track needs to be adjusted north and it was more than a wobble.

Never said it was a "wobble", that's why I've been putting "wobble" in quotation marks! Just relaying the NHC line right now...

They use long-term mean motion rather than 1-3 hr variations even...and the past 3 hours it seems that WNW to almost NW is the true motion now. They prob. won't change it on the intermediate at 7pm CDT, but we'll see.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

WEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

Check out the latest information from the Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory!

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

You can obviously tell what is fueling Rita ... much more so than Katrina! This is fantastically amazing!

Now lets hope the dry air penetration from the west will weaken to the lowest possible tropical storm ... this is good enough ... that is if we beat 888 and then the storm weakens that would be better!

Records people in our lifetime!

 

[Chad Ringley]

Don't think Rita is headed down below 888mb...in fact if she doesn't dip below 900mb in the next 12 hour, her time frame may be up...she'll be in and out of everyone's favorite...loop current!

 

[MClarkson]

XTRAP 898!

 

[Anonymous]

Originally posted by Chad Ringley
Don't think Rita is headed down below 888mb...in fact if she doesn't dip below 900mb in the next 12 hour, her time frame may be up...she'll be in and out of everyone's favorite...loop current!

That's true ...

then again just thinking I wonder when we will get the whole discussion on the Eye Wall Replacement Cycle Discussion going just like we did with Katrina?

Now I think it is possible, well possible, that Rita will beat Katrina in 4th lowest pressure...

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Originally posted by Anonymous+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Anonymous)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Chad Ringley

Don't think Rita is headed down below 888mb...in fact if she doesn't dip below 900mb in the next 12 hour, her time frame may be up...she'll be in and out of everyone's favorite...loop current!

That's true ...

then again just thinking I wonder when we will get the whole discussion on the Eye Wall Replacement Cycle Discussion going just like we did with Katrina?

Now I think it is possible, well possible, that Rita will beat Katrina in 4th lowest pressure...[/b]

That's me commenting ... thought I had the cookies on ...

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by MClarkson
XTRAP 898!

Yes, the latest UPDATE states that the pressure is <899mb! I could just rewrite it, but here we go:

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

..RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED... WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART

--> http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt63.KNHC.html

 

[Chad Ringley]

Hurricane Rita...898 mb. Are you kidding me?!?!?!

That's almost 90 mb of deepening in about 30 hours. We have alot to learn about hurricane intensity.

Dropsonde measured 35 kt at the surface...which means it got...

RITA'D!

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Nice ... latest update from NHC setting lowest pressure at 898!

Astonishing!

Rita could be the third lowest pressure in the Atlantic/GOM

Wow!



EDIT: sorry for rewriting upon this ... just noted the previous comments ... sorry