NOW: Hurricane Rita

[Dave Lewison]

4pm NHC track seems to have shifted landfall timing rather significantly...from about 6AM back to 1AM Saturday, which would pretty much suck for anyone chasing her (I hate nighttime landfalls). However, 18Z model plots like this seem to show a cluster of 72hr (1PM Saturday) points right around the coastline:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/gui...ntic/early1.png

So which to believe? I'd imagine NHC is pulling their track guidance from model suites as well, so I wonder why there's such a big difference in the timing...

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Gabe Garfield+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Gabe Garfield)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Sam Sagnella

The minimum central pressure, as reported by one of the NOAA planes, has fallen to 908mb and winds will be increased to 165mph at 21z.

Where did you obtain this info? Last recon I can see has c.p. "only" down to 914 mb. Thanks!

Gabe[/b]

Gabe, there were a couple of dropsondes that showed 906mb and 908mb I believe. I guess these were thrown out given that they didn't compare well with recon aircraft flight-level winds and extrap pressure.

 

[Justin Walker]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>

Originally posted by Gabe Garfield@
<!--QuoteBegin-Sam Sagnella

The minimum central pressure, as reported by one of the NOAA planes, has fallen to 908mb and winds will be increased to 165mph at 21z.

Where did you obtain this info? Last recon I can see has c.p. "only" down to 914 mb. Thanks!

Gabe

Gabe, there were a couple of dropsondes that showed 906mb and 908mb I believe. I guess these were thrown out given that they didn't compare well with recon aircraft flight-level winds and extrap pressure.[/b]

The weather channel just said 904mb!!

 

[MClarkson]

indeed.

they dropped a 904.

scarier, the storm shows a 21 degree difference between eye and surroundings, indicating that intensification may not be done.

They used to say that 10 degrees C for such a value was indicitive of a very healthy storm.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Originally posted by Dave Lewison
4pm NHC track seems to have shifted landfall timing rather significantly...from about 6AM back to 1AM Saturday, which would pretty much suck for anyone chasing her (I hate nighttime landfalls). However, 18Z model plots like this seem to show a cluster of 72hr (1PM Saturday) points right around the coastline:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/gui...ntic/early1.png

So which to believe? I'd imagine NHC is pulling their track guidance from model suites as well, so I wonder why there's such a big difference in the timing...

This far out I'd almost expect this to change. When I left to chase Ivan last year two days beforehand, landfall was forecast to be during the day (albeit very early morning). By the time I got into position in Mobile, it had changed to overnight.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_..._graphics.shtml

 

[Bill Tabor]

None of the forecast models I just looked at from earlier runs today showed this level of intensification so quickly. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/gui.../intensity1.png

Plus the last NHC guidance forecast table of probabilities was showing a max of 160mph increase as part of the range, but that was on the extreme top level of strengthening shown, and of course that doesn't cover the current 165mph. I noticed this same problem occurred with Katrina when it strengthened so quickly. Looking at the current wind speed forecast and probability chart http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...648.shtml?chart it is very interesting that assuming landfall in 48 hours and wind speed decay for the next 24 (up to 72 hours) that even halfway through that final 24 hours after landfall (12 hours) it would still be a Cat 3!! I'm thinking if this track switched directly over Austin it could get interesting for my area even 150 to 160 miles inland.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

She's officially at 904mb now. Since this is an update, and not a regularly published product, I've copied it below.

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
545 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

..RITA BECOMES THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 416 PM CDT...2116Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 904 MB...OR 26.69 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
...
FORECASTER STEWART

--> http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KNHC/0509212146.wtnt63.html

 

[David Wolfson]

The 18Z GFS just coming in shows landfall just about right up the east side of Galveston Bay at around dawn Saturday. The model oscillations between runs are becoming smaller, and my vote still goes to Freeport Saturday morning. FWIW.

Oh, and she stalls... Two days later the circulation center is something like 50 miles northwest of Houston. Oy!

 

[Rodrigo Javier]

292
URNT12 KNHC 212149
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

H. 904 mb
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 19:32:00 Z

THIS MONSTER IS IN THE TOP 5 RIGHT NOW!

http://rodrigo0.blogspot.com

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

Originally posted by MClarkson
indeed.

they dropped a 904.

scarier, the storm shows a 21 degree difference between eye and surroundings, indicating that intensification may not be done.

They used to say that 10 degrees C for such a value was indicitive of a very healthy storm.

The Vortex data message says the 700 mb temp in Rita is now 30 C. A quick and dirty Google search tells me that Typhoon Tip in the Pacific in 1979 also had a 30 C 700 mb temperature at one point. Tip was the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed with a minimum pressure of 870 mb. I expect Rita will beat out Allen for the Gulf record of 899 mb and might even break Gilbert's atlantic record of 888 mb.

 

[IvanStorm]

Amazing! According to the latest AVN Infrared loop it appears the NW jog has ceased and it's on a westerly path again.

 

[B Ozanne]

Originally posted by IvanStorm
Amazing! According to the latest AVN Infrared loop it appears the NW jog has ceased and it's on a westerly path again.

That makes perfect sense...it was a wobble. If you read my earlier post you'd know that whenever I say its changing track it turns out to be a wobble. Alas...another wobble.

 

[Michael Auker]

Even Katrina didn't have a 21 Celsius temp difference. This is all getting to be a bit much! :shock:

 

[David Wolfson]

Yes, and as the media will remind us for the next two days, it will be weakening to a Cat 4 and how great is that! :roll:

 

[MClarkson]

Typhoon Tip in the Pacific in 1979 also had a 30 C 700 mb temperature at one point.

great, just what houston needs.

the plane has started its inbound leg for an eye and NE quad mesurement... cant wait to see what they find.