Fred Gossage
EF1
The farther north of Houston it tracks, the less it will go over the lower oceanic heat content.......and the closer it will be to an area of swampy land for miles, to allow surge to move farther inland.
NOW: Hurricane Rita
- Thread starter HAltschule
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The farther north of Houston it tracks, the less it will go over the lower oceanic heat content.......and the closer it will be to an area of swampy land for miles, to allow surge to move farther inland.
Sam Sagnella
EF5
What I wouldn't give to be a Hurricane Hunter today...
The stadium effect is clearly visible from the visible satellite image, and it appears that the eye is beginning to clear out at the lowest levels. Oh man, I really think we're headed for a pressure lower than we saw last night. Now that the ERC is nearly complete, and that the center of circulation will likely avoid the low TCHC waters, sub-900 definitely not out of the question, IMHO. Whether or not this will actually happen, I obviously cannot be certain of, but what I am certain of is that this storm is about to restrengthen.
The stadium effect is clearly visible from the visible satellite image, and it appears that the eye is beginning to clear out at the lowest levels. Oh man, I really think we're headed for a pressure lower than we saw last night. Now that the ERC is nearly complete, and that the center of circulation will likely avoid the low TCHC waters, sub-900 definitely not out of the question, IMHO. Whether or not this will actually happen, I obviously cannot be certain of, but what I am certain of is that this storm is about to restrengthen.
Justin Turcotte
EF5
Don't kid yourself. This storm is not rapidly weakening. Solid eye structure, amzing northerly outflow, better symetry, warm bubble yet to cross. Extrapolating current movement puts the center near or over Galveston Bay. Each wobble north will allow Houston/Galveston residents to breath easier... but not quite yet. Rita appears to be moving west of the weakness in the upper ridge making me wonder how much more deviant northward motion will follow, if much at all.
Justin Bailey
EF2
ya'll might think i'm crazy, but if i had to pick a spot for this thing to make landfall it would be new orleans. Why? because everybody is already gone ( no more loss of life ), and what is it going to damage...the damage. you can't destroy whats already been destroyed.
but whever it hits will be bad. and NO doesn't look like its in its direct path. Reintensification is definately taking place as we speek. i dont know if below 900 mb is attainable, but im not going to put anything past it.
it seems like this cane is doing just about whatever it has to in order to remain as strong as possible.
but whever it hits will be bad. and NO doesn't look like its in its direct path. Reintensification is definately taking place as we speek. i dont know if below 900 mb is attainable, but im not going to put anything past it.
it seems like this cane is doing just about whatever it has to in order to remain as strong as possible.
rdale
EF5
How do you think it'll make that quick of a turn?
Nevermind - I see this wasn't a met related post.
Nevermind - I see this wasn't a met related post.
Justin Bailey
EF2
it wont. i hadn't finished my post when you read it. my little brother came up and messed with the computer therefore i had to edit it. lol. sorry.
Brandon Clement
EF4
I somewhat agree, but then again the levees are are in such bad conditions and a lot of the city was spared the worse of the wind damage so there would be a lot more damage than expected. Plus those people have experienced enough for one lifetime so....
I am quite impressed with how easily Rita pushed the drier air off to her north and west and the GFS has the H all but evaporating over the next day then reforming off the the east. It also has Rita making landfall on the Tx/La border. I thought for sure this morning that she was sucking in dry air and wouldn't recover, but it was abviously and ERC and she looks like she could easily go back to a cat 5. She will start to encounter some shear as she gets closer to shore and will have at least one more ERC so now it looks like timing is everything with regards to her strength. I still don't think she will come in as a 5 but a strong 3 or 4 is now looking much more likely. I still think that south of Lake Charles is going to get the eye.
Did anyone else notice the discussion yesterday talking about the wave in the SW carribean?
It was saying that the wave has become better organized and the upper air is becoming much more favorable for further development, now there is no mention of it. I think Rita ate the wave and is using it for her main source of energy. Any takers?
Jeff Snyder
EF5
An earlier Tropical Outlook noted that the upper-level flow enhanced by Rita has sheared this area apart. I'm not sure what you mean by "using it for her main source of energy", however. I don't think this area of thundrestorms in the sw Carib is affecting Rita one way or the other.
Brandon Clement
EF4
I was referring to Rita sucking the moist air from the carribean and Yucatan that someone else also mentioned this morning. I was just curious if anyone else had noticed the discussion yesterday and Rita pulling moisture from the carribean causing the wave to die out. I know that wave did not affect Rita but Rita affected the wave. Just thought it was interesting and wasn't sure if anyone else had noticed.
Adam Atkins
EF2
update
Latest IR satellite continues to show intense convection spreading in all cardinal directions away from the center. This type of intensification usually follows an ERC. I would expect the intensification to last until at least early tomorrow AM. It this cycle can repeat itself again, Rita would hit landfall during a weakening trend, similar to this AM. Also, the continental air entrainment would further deteriorate the hurricane, all of which are good signs for the TX/LA coastline.
Storm surge will be catastrophic in places however, as a category 5 storm will really push the waters inland, even after substantial weaking, ie. Ivan last year. The waves along the gulf coast are already impressive, if anyone has been watching TWC where Stephanie Abrams is...wow Stephanie Abrams...anyways...
The most impressive feature so far with Rita is the outflow in all quadrants. There is evidence of a stong upper level anticyclone on satellite as well as this mornings obs, which I can honestly say I've seen nothing like. I'll be up all night saturday watching this historic event.
Latest IR satellite continues to show intense convection spreading in all cardinal directions away from the center. This type of intensification usually follows an ERC. I would expect the intensification to last until at least early tomorrow AM. It this cycle can repeat itself again, Rita would hit landfall during a weakening trend, similar to this AM. Also, the continental air entrainment would further deteriorate the hurricane, all of which are good signs for the TX/LA coastline.
Storm surge will be catastrophic in places however, as a category 5 storm will really push the waters inland, even after substantial weaking, ie. Ivan last year. The waves along the gulf coast are already impressive, if anyone has been watching TWC where Stephanie Abrams is...wow Stephanie Abrams...anyways...
The most impressive feature so far with Rita is the outflow in all quadrants. There is evidence of a stong upper level anticyclone on satellite as well as this mornings obs, which I can honestly say I've seen nothing like. I'll be up all night saturday watching this historic event.
Justin Bailey
EF2
whats the average time that it take an ERC to reach completion? How long does a hurricane usaully go between ERC's?
Anonymous
Hoooooowaahh ^_^ It's a nice shirt
Brandon Clement
EF4
Usually takes 24 hours to complete the cycle but the cycle can be much quicker or longer. It all just depends on the storm. Time between cycles also depends on the storm but usually goes about 24 hours between cycles, but a couple cat 5's have gone almost 3 days between cycles.
Justin Bailey
EF2
lol. i thought this forum was supposed to be about the hurricane. but yeah...thanks TWC.
HAltschule
EF5
First...there's no mistake why Stephanie Abrams is wearing a tight shirt. She always does. Great for ratings. Now all she has to do is no what she's talking about....like the Hurricane Hunter wx anchor. She's beautiful and extremelt intelligent from what I have seen.
So, is 14,160 views for one topic a record? There also some 200+ posts. Just wondering? A record may have a ways to go yet.
So, is 14,160 views for one topic a record? There also some 200+ posts. Just wondering? A record may have a ways to go yet.
