NOW: Hurricane Rita

[beaudodson]

Waiting for new satellite images. Pressure is up again - I believe now 924 mb or so. Should be an interesting morning ahead. Some amazing images of Rita over the past 36 hours.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Originally posted by Sam Sagnella
I agree with your landfall target, Howie, and I personally am very much still thinking this is going to be a Freeport-Galveston storm. The 00z model output still remains clustered from just to the E of Galveston to the TX/LA border, but, especially after this (temporary?) jog to the left, Rita still has a LOT of latitude to gain if she's going to make the TX/LA border area. I'm sticking with my original target near the Freeport area, but may need to shift slightly to the east in the morning. My bottom line is that I think this will make landfall to the southwest of Galveston Bay.

As far as intensity is concerned, I would really like to see the post-ERC restrengthening start up before I commit to anything drastic, but overall I think Rita will have a similar intensity to Katrina at landfall -- 145mph.

This is further confirmed by the pronounced southward shift in the 00z GFDL, which now has a landfall almost directly over Galveston Island. This is gonna be a big 'un.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Interestingly enough, there is a new double wind-maxima in the NE quad. Is this another ERC? Man, that'd be good news!

927
SXXX50 KNHC 230620
AF309 2018A RITA HDOB 52 KNHC
0609. 2643N 09022W 03049 5251 139 118 100 100 120 02833 0000000000
0610 2644N 09020W 03049 5231 139 115 100 100 117 02853 0000000000
0610. 2646N 09019W 03047 5211 138 110 116 106 111 02871 0000000000
0611 2647N 09018W 03046 5195 137 108 108 104 109 02886 0000000000
0611. 2648N 09017W 03050 5180 138 105 104 104 105 02905 0000000000
0612 2649N 09015W 03047 5167 138 103 106 106 104 02915 0000000000
0612. 2650N 09014W 03052 5154 136 101 094 094 102 02933 0000000000
0613 2652N 09013W 03041 5143 139 100 100 100 101 02933 0000000000
0613. 2653N 09012W 03050 5129 137 098 110 096 099 02955 0000000000
0614 2654N 09010W 03048 5120 137 096 110 094 096 02963 0000000000
0614. 2655N 09009W 03048 5110 139 095 110 102 096 02973 0000000000
0615 2656N 09008W 03048 5102 137 092 112 104 093 02981 0000000000
0615. 2658N 09006W 03047 5094 137 090 110 100 091 02989 0000000000
0616 2659N 09005W 03050 5087 136 088 106 106 089 02998 0000000000
0616. 2700N 09004W 03046 5080 135 087 104 104 087 03002 0000000000
0617 2701N 09003W 03047 5073 134 087 106 106 087 03010 0000000000
0617. 2702N 09001W 03049 5068 135 087 106 106 087 03016 0000000000
0618 2704N 09000W 03050 5067 142 085 100 100 086 03018 0000000000
0618. 2705N 08959W 03042 5065 141 088 090 090 090 03013 0000000000
0619 2706N 08957W 03051 5059 141 085 090 090 087 03027 0000000000
0619. 2707N 08956W 03048 5053 140 084 098 098 086 03030 0000000000
0620 2709N 08955W 03049 5047 142 083 098 098 087 03037 0000000000
0620. 2710N 08953W 03047 5042 141 092 096 096 095 03040 0000000000
0621 2711N 08952W 03050 5037 139 095 088 088 095 03048 0000000000
0621. 2712N 08951W 03043 5034 134 099 084 084 100 03044 0000000000
0622 2714N 08949W 03053 5031 134 093 080 080 097 03057 0000000000
0622. 2715N 08948W 03045 5025 131 087 076 076 087 03054 0000000000
0623 2716N 08947W 03048 5021 130 094 074 074 096 03063 0000000000

 

[Chris Sokol]

The ERC is actually in the process of completing:

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

FLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE MIGHT BE NEARING COMPLETION. THERE IS NOW ONLY A SINGLE
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 20 N MI...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL THAT THE AIRCRAFT RADAR INDICATE IS SLOWLY
CONTRACTING... WHILE THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE.

 

[Anonymous]

As a Houstonian, we are terrified. Please pray for an eastern Texans/Louisiana impact.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Well, maybe at 11PM but current data seems to beg to differ -- would appear to be a double maxima there.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Well, maybe at 11PM but current data seems to beg to differ -- would appear to be a double maxima there.

The ERC should be NEAR completion, but not entirely completed -- thus the double wind maxima. Latest IR certainly indicates that the inner eyewall should fall apart any time now, as tops are warming. So, I still expect to see single large eye form in the next few hours. It should contract in time, and I still expect to see <915mb central pressure by noon.

 

[David Wolfson]

Just opened up from the eclipse. She looks to be pulling some dry air around the west side and moving about 310 in the general direction of Lake Charles at a little faster clip.

 

[Justin Turcotte]

As a Houstonian, we are terrified. Please pray for an eastern Texans/Louisiana impact.

To our guest... Houston is 50 feet above sea level and will NOT experience a Katrina type storm surge. If the storm were to wobble west of the forecast path than Galveston and the bay-side eastern burbs would get some water. If the storm hits as forecast than there will be 20 feet of water plowing through Sabin Lake into Port Aurther and Beaumont with their combined population of 160,000 and huge Exxon oil refinery. This isn't a situation I'd pray for. Best of luck to all Texans. Stay safe and definately don't venture out during the storm. Many people needlessly die when they are hit with trees while on foot or in a vehicle

 

[Anonymous]

As a Houstonian, we are terrified. Please pray for an eastern Texans/Louisiana impact.

To our guest... Houston is 50 feet above sea level and will NOT experience a Katrina type storm surge. If the storm were to wobble west of the forecast path than Galveston and the bay-side eastern burbs would get some water. If the storm hits as forecast than there will be 20 feet of water plowing through Sabin Lake into Port Aurther and Beaumont with their combined population of 160,000 and huge Exxon oil refinery. This isn't a situation I'd pray for. Best of luck to all Texans. Stay safe and definately don't venture out during the storm. Many people needlessly die when they are hit with trees while on foot or in a vehicle

Thank you very much for your concern. I am a reference of Carrie Holliday, a poster on here. I am 75 miles inland in a city called The Woodlands. She is sticking it out near Katy.

I'll capture pictures for posting when power comes back on after the weekend. Pray for the best! And I am turning to this website to read your posts, because you guys seem to know way more than some of the mumbo-jumbo weathermen around here (except for Dr. Neil Frank).

Pray for Houston

 

[Jeff Snyder]

http://www.tornadocentral.com/now/current_IR4.jpg

That nicely shows the inner eyewall dissipating. Cloud top temps have warmed per IR imagery, and pressure continues to slowly rise. I'm still banking on some reintensification once this relatively long-lasting Eyewall Replacement Cycle is over, though I'm getting less confident in my forecast with time as this process drags itself out.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Looks like 126 knots max flightlevel in NE quad on most recent AF recon... vortex soon.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Looks like 927mb:

953
UZNT13 KNHC 230855
XXAA 73097 99267 70910 08261 99927 27604 21006 00/// ///// /////
92021 27405 21506 85770 23808 24007 70456 16400 33502 88999 77999
31313 09608 80831
61616 AF307 2118A RITA OB 08
62626 EYE SPL 2671N09100W 0834 MBL WND 23007 AEV 20507 DLM WND 24
005 927728 WL150 22507 075 =
XXBB 73098 99267 70910 08261 00927 27604 11850 23808 22721 17822
33697 16000
21212 00927 21006 11850 24007 22697 34002
31313 09608 80831
61616 AF307 2118A RITA OB 08
62626 EYE SPL 2671N09100W 0834 MBL WND 23007 AEV 20507 DLM WND 24
005 927728 WL150 22507 075 =

 

[Jeff Snyder]

LOL ERC mania I guess... Latest discussion notes that the inner eyewall has finally completely dissipated, signaling the end of the nearly day-long eyewall replacement cycle. Typically cyclones strengthen when they finish an ERC, thus the reason many suspect Rita to strengthen back into the high-end Cat 4 (or even Cat 5 range). However, it was also noted that ANOTHER wind max exists outside the new/replacement eyewall. This means that we may see another ERC occur right on the heals of the one we are just finishing. If this is indeed the case, I can't imagine Rita will strengthen even <120mb given that we should see the weakening effects from the next ERC later today.

I don't think I've ever really heard of this occurring before. It obviously isn't certain yet that it will, but it's still quite a thought. Assuming the wind max has been there for more than an hour or so, this new info means that Rita actually had 3 concentric eyewalls earlier this evening. This would seem to help explain why the winds measured by recon have been considerably weaker than would otherwise be expected with a 915-920mb hurricane. Most recon reports in the last 20 hours have support a high-end Cat 3 wind at the surface, not a mid-range Cat 4 as the official advisories have been. Concentric eyewalls tend to spread out the area of high winds, presumably lowering the overall maximum wind. I'd imagine that this would be doubly true if there was indeed 3 concentric eyewalls... Additionally, I would think that this may decrease the overall surface convergence near the center, which may explain why cloud tops have cooled in the past 3-6 hours.

EDIT: It should be noted that this is based on rather limited data, so there may not actually be an 'outer' eyewall to the previous 'outer' eyewall.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Mornin' ... latest IR imagery would suggest that the raggedness of the eye maybe at an end and a concentric nature is becoming more evident.

Otherwise Rita is taking a turn more northward and hopefully will end up further from Galveston, even further east of my prediction of TX/LA border ...

Not much else has changed from discussions of last night and early morning.

Honestly I believe Mr. Snyder's summary says it all ...


EDIT: latest Dvorak maybe gives more of the idea that this whole system is slowly falling apart ... coming into a stronger shear environment ... possible ingestation of drier air by the outer bands to the west of the storm ... maybe there won't be any strengthening at all ... a good thing.