New chase case#5

[Andrea Griffa]

As no one is starting, here we go with the new case.
It's mid spring and a new low pressure system is approaching the Plains.
As Scott wrote it is up to you to determine whether or not there will actually be chaseable storms, their severity, storm mode, whether or not you believe there will be tornadoes or if it's a non-tornado event. Large hail? Straight line winds?

Write down your targets; 12z maps are inside this post.

I will post 18Z data in the next 12 hours, then 21Z and 00z data/results the following days.
Sorry for the momentaneus error, I will upload the maps in few minutes.


300mb

500mb

700mb

850mb

Surface analysis

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Looks pretty dynamic. And lots of good moisture. I'm on my way to my position ahead of the shortwave to start in Great Bend, Kansas ... looks like I may need to head east, depending on future soundings, though (wish I could access Earl Barker right about now!) ... my partner wants to stop for donuts but I'm not letting him ... c'mon Kansas ... come through for papa.

 

[Dann Cianca]

Hard to tell how fast this thing is going to move in from the west, but be hanging out in Sharon Springs, Kansas, maybe catch the sunrise from Mount Sunflower. I see it's snowing on the Palmer Divide ... glad I left Denver early. Man, these southerlies are filling my nostrils with fresh Kansas cow dirt. There seem to be a couple pressure minimums in Colorado ... might watch the Arkansas River Valley and drop south as the day develops.

 

[Shane Adams]

I'll wait for 18z updates before making a move. Something tells me I've got the time.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Thanks Andrea for starting this one!
Looks like a nice classic central plains setup. Slight neg-tilt trough coming in from the west. WF is layed out right along I-70 in KS. Lee cyclogenesis should pull the surface low and 60 Tds into w KS down into the panhandles. There will be chaseable storms from what I see. Storm mode supercellular and possibly a few tornadoes in w KS. I'm on the road from Denver and heading to Colby, KS.

 

[Marc Austin]

12Z position

Well, this looks like a potential outbreak day with a strong trough digging into the center of the country. I see two plays for the day; a warm front along the border of KS/NE and a cold front/dryline setup extending from western and central KS down into Western OK and the TX panhandle. I don't particularly like the ongoing could cover/convection ahead of the warm front, although it is early in the day. I've not had much luck with warm front setups during real chases, so I'll probably hope to target the dryline as it moves into south-central and central KS later in the day.

My initial target is Great Bend, KS. From here I can head north toward the warm front if things are looking better there, south if storms fire further south along the dryline, or east or west if things are moving slower or faster.

I'm sure there will be some severe weather today. One thing I noted was the lack of shear from the surface to the upper levels. Upper level winds over KS are a bit weaker than I would like to see, but if the jet positions itself further east, I see a potential tornado outbreak both along the warm front and the dryline over southern NE and west and central KS. From what I see now, I would expect several tornadoes as well as numerous large hail reports.

Could this be a colossal bust? Sure! But I'd give it a shot. Can't wait to see the 18Z update.

 

[Brad Nelson]

Nice 70 degree dewpoints being advected northward from OK already, low pressure west of Eads, CO, and well defined warm front along I-70. I'd be definitely thinking Supercells with potential tornadoes and want to set up around Oakley, KS and go from there with good road options. Looks like it will be an early initiation type of day with plenty of sun already in place across most of western KS that should lead to rapid destablization. Probably play the triple point unless we start to see more of a well defined dryline setting up. Should be a BOOMING day!!

You know, with the vertically stacked low centered across UT, we are probably looking at 2-3 days of severe weather in the Plains with this set-up. It'd be hard for that low to eject out of eastern CO until this western upper low lifts out.

 

[Joel Wright]

I'll start out in Dodge City. I'm liking the speed max coming around the trough at H5. Looks like there's a lot of moisture already available. This looks like a really good setup.

 

[Mike Johnston]

hmmm. ...64t/64td at Clovis, NM with 850mb flow out of the SW? Okay - I'll wait on the next set of data, also.

 

[Chad Cowan]

Looks like a very widespread severe-wx day with quite a few possible target areas. Based off this data, I'm in the TX panhandle around Dalhart but will probably shift south and west depending on how far east the dryline pushes. I'm not expecting it to push too far east, possibly even retreat into New Mexico due to the very deep moisture in the area. The 11C 700mb temps indicate a moderate cap for this time of the year but this is definitely able to be overcome with the strong dynamic forcing arriving in the late afternoon/ early evening. Wind profiles will favor supercells and tornadoes.

 

[Dean Baron]

I think I'll play the warm front, but I better get going if I want to have any shot of being in position. Im heading towards south central Nebraska, no specific city yet.

 

[Nathan Edwards]

I'm going to place myself in the Northern Texas panhandle around Dumas. This will leave options open for action further north into KS, or possibly SW into far eastern NM and W Texas. I'll see how things progress at 18z as I think I'll still have 3 or more hours to position myself with a moderate cap in place currently.

 

[mikegeukes]

I am going to be in Colby KS, to play the warm front.
Also like the clearing in Southwest Kansas.
US 83 be a good road to go north or south.

Mike Geukes
Geukes Weather -Home of Hundreds of Weather Links
-Links to: Current Weather, Forecast Models, Other Weather Links, Storm Chasers, etc

 

[Niccolò Ubalducci]

This is a pretty configuration for TX panhandle, Ok panhandle and south west Kansas.

It's very probably eavy wind gust and medium size hail in this zone.

Now I'm watching the weather situation from Liberal KS and I'm waiting rock'n roll!

 

[Brian Stertz]

I am going to hangout around the Pampa TX area. The LL flow should strengthen during the day and the dryline should mix eastward towards the eastern edge of the Caprock during the day. Instability already present with a holdable cap. Like the nice balance of the LL and mid level winds. Sure looks to me to be a TX Panhandle...edge of Caprock event.