Monster Snowstorm? 12/23

[nickgrillo]

the models are all wrong and this storm is going to retrograde into so cal and dump 3 feet of snow. Dont you all see it!!!

Khristian, heck, I see the potential for photogenic CL supercells and F4/F5 tornadoes going through northern Wayne County Michigan every year; not many see that thou! Same with the CA thing. LOL. :lol:

White Christmas for us Detroiters, thou!

Detroit/Pontiac NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for almost all of southeastern Michigan; and cities like Cleveland, Cincinnati and Indianapolis are all covered by Winter Storm Warnings. Nice!

 

[Joel Wright]

Ahh, here in northern IL the only thing we'll be shoveling is this BS of a winter so far lol.

Gee, I hope the storms on the southern flank of this system don't rob too much moisture from the deformation snows to the north....

 

[Chris Hayes]

Well, last nights forecast for today and tonight sounded pretty good. 4-7" today and 2-4 tonight. It changed quite a bit. Now it's 1-2 today and 2-4 tonight :cry: So close, yet so far away

 

[Robert Dewey]

Well, the 06Z runs were a tad weaker than the 00Z runs, while the 12Z are similar to the 00Z. ETA has trended a bit westward with it's main precip axis, GFS isn't in yet, so it's hard to tell. The12Z GEM 15KM model has jogged westward, and is much deeper than it's 00Z run, much like the old 12Z run from yesterday. For what it's worth, the NGM also had a slight trend westward. The FSL DEV RUC is still very similar to last nights run, and is actually more in line with the GEM model.

Given the variety of solutions, and the main event associated with the low pressure is still 12-24 hours away (depending on where your at), there could still be some changes in the low position. Right now, as it looks, no matter what model you pick, northwestern OH is gonna get dumped on...

 

[Robert Dewey]

Latest ETA and GFS show a nice TROWAL setting up from the thumb of lower Michigan southwest into central IN tomorrow morning/afternoon. Cross sections of theta also reveal some conditional instability in the 1000-700mb layer across the TROWAL region. This could lead to some banded precip in the comma head of the storm, and increase precip amounts. Research has indicated that areas within a TROWAL and/or conditional instability tend to have higher (and in a few cases, much higher) QPF than model output estimated.

Just something interesting to watch...

For more information on "TROWALS", check this site out: http://meted.ucar.edu/norlat/bandedsnow/

 

[David Diehl]

Winter storm warning for North eastern Indiana from 4 PM today to 6PM tomorrow. anyone want to trade snow for a F5? :wink:

TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MAKING MATTERS WORSE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG ON THURSDAY CAUSING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW.

 

[Ben Pinette]

Days like tomorrow (or what's predicted) make me very happy that I don't commute more than a few miles to work anymore

That said, give me the 12-18 inches Robert! Actually, the way the bands will probably orientate, you'll get whatever we get here.

 

[Jon Miller]

12-22 - NOON - only a slight dusting of snow here in Celina Ohio so far ,but Greenville Ohio, 30 miles south, has 9" on the ground at noon - Dayton has about 4" and is predicting 10"-18" for areas NW of the city - hope it goes elsewhere - I had my fill of snow in the blizzard of 1978 !

 

[Robert Dewey]

Days like tomorrow (or what's predicted) make me very happy that I don't commute more than a few miles to work anymore

That said, give me the 12-18 inches Robert! Actually, the way the bands will probably orientate, you'll get whatever we get here.

Yeah, it's looking interesting! The 12Z FSL RUC is in, and it continues to look strong... Low pressure down to 990MB with nearly 1.25 inches of QPF for the Detroit area. ETA is the driest of the models, putting out .75 inches of QPF... Which would still translate to a solid 12 inches of snow. Again, the FSL RUC has the highest QPF, generating nearly 20 inches of snow, while the GFS and the WRF models seem to be in between, with 16 inches. Though, I would question the GFS' QPF amount, because if it verified, there would be some pretty intense bands of snow, and perhaps thundersnow, which doesn't pick up well on forecast models anyway. It has very weak symmetric stability, with the theta-e folding in on itself. GFS also features a stronger TROWAL than the ETA, with very intense frontogenesis... Also, the Detroit area would be on the northern side of the dry slot, or in the "comma head"...

Latest discussion from DTX also notes the concern that the southern stream jet is stronger and more coupled with each model run, which would lead to a stronger storm:

THE CONCERN HERE IS MORE SIGNALS OF JET COUPLING WHICH
MOVES EITHER ACROSS OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

They also show some concern over blizzard conditions, as mixing heights risk and tap into the 30-40knt winds...

 

[Khristian Snyder]

Im kinda new to this forum, and i was wondering where do you get these models and stuff from?? KLike the The 12Z FSL RUC

 

[Robert Dewey]

Im kinda new to this forum, and i was wondering where do you get these models and stuff from?? KLike the The 12Z FSL RUC

Here are some sites that have MM5/WRF data

FSL RUC: http://maps.fsl.noaa.gov/
MM5 Link page: http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/pages/simple.html
NASA MM5: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/Model/model_mm5.html
UW MM5: http://helios.meteor.wisc.edu/current.shtml
NCEP Models: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

I also run an in-house Workstation ETA model, and I get all of my data through a NOAAport stream, so I can create my own maps such as theta and isentropes, which are generally not available on the 'net.

 

[Khristian Snyder]

Im kinda new to this forum, and i was wondering where do you get these models and stuff from?? KLike the The 12Z FSL RUC

Here are some sites that have MM5/WRF data

FSL RUC: http://maps.fsl.noaa.gov/
MM5 Link page: http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/pages/simple.html
NASA MM5: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/Model/model_mm5.html
UW MM5: http://helios.meteor.wisc.edu/current.shtml
NCEP Models: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

I also run an in-house Workstation ETA model, and I get all of my data through a NOAAport stream, so I can create my own maps such as theta and isentropes, which are generally not available on the 'net.

Thankyou for these links!

 

[Joe Nield]

Try being in Illinois, right on the edge.... So close... yet so far.

It's _insert your own expletive here_ COLD!

Hey, last night in Plainfield, about 0.2" In Shelby county (I can get in the car and be there in 20 minutes)...SIX INCHES!!!

Three counties south of me? 10!!!!

You want to talk frustration?

There's still an ounce of hope for me, but I'm not holding out any.

 

[Khristian Snyder]

Its comming down in Cinncinati.

http://images.ibsys.com/cin/images/weather...g?1103752603629

 

[Chris Hayes]

Well, getting some good snowfall rates here. Got about 4" so far. Had snowfall rates of about an inch per hour earlier. Expecting about 3-5" overnight then changing to freezing raing then rain. Not the 2 feet SW Ohio is supposed to get but it's better than all rain. Sorry PA :lol: